What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend-discount model

We apply a dynamic dividend-discount model to analyse unexpected housing returns in a panel of eight euro area countries which together comprise 90% of euro area GDP. The application of this model allows for a de-composition of house price movements into movements in rent (cash-flow) and expected return news components. The empirical application of the model involves the estimation of a panel vector autoregressive model (VAR) for four variables –excess return to housing, rents, the real interest rate and real disposable per capita income– using quarterly data over the period 1985-2007. This empirical investigation yields two main findings. First, the bulk of the variability of house price move-ments in the panel of countries analysed can be attributed to movements in the rental yield. Indeed, perturbations to rents appear to result in a one-to-one analogous movement in house prices over the long term once controlling for changes in expected returns. Second, evidence from the dynamic profile of shocks along with the negative co-movement between changing rental yield expectations and changing expected returns on housing assets would suggest that euro area house prices overreact to news. JEL Classification: R21, C33, G12cash flow news, house price, housing rental yield, panel VAR estimation, return decomposition

Coherent Control of Photoelectron Wavepacket Angular Interferograms

Coherent control over photoelectron wavepackets, via the use of polarization-shaped laser pulses, can be understood as a time and polarization-multiplexed process. In this work, we investigate this multiplexing via computation of the observable photoelectron angular interferograms resulting from multi-photon atomic ionization with polarization-shaped laser pulses. We consider the polarization sensitivity of both the instantaneous and cumulative continuum wavefunction; the nature of the coherent control over the resultant photoelectron interferogram is thus explored in detail. Based on this understanding, the use of coherent control with polarization-shaped pulses as a methodology for a highly multiplexed coherent quantum metrology is also investigated, and defined in terms of the information content of the observable.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure

Review of 3D model development with application to groundwater studies in New Zealand 1996 – 2011

Three dimensional geological modelling techniques have been applied since 1996 with an aim to characterise the lithological and chronological units of New Zealand’s many diverse aquifers. Models of property-scattered data have also been applied to assess physical properties of aquifers and the distribution of groundwater chemistry, including groundwater age, to inform an understanding of groundwater systems. These models, fundamental to understanding groundwater recharge, flow and discharge have found many uses as outlined in this paper

Economic integration and FDI: an empirical analysis of foreign investment in the EU and in Central and Eastern Europe

Recent evidence suggests that regional economic integration provides an important stimulus not only to trade, but also to FDI. In contrast, the available theory on FDI does not yet provide empirically testable propositions on the effects of concurrent trade and investment liberalisation. Moreover, given the limits of simulation models, which rely heavily upon parameter choice, in assessing the impact of such liberalisation, there is a need for empirical analysis to identify the principal features of FDI. This paper uses a 'gravity model' approach to assess the impact of the deepening integration between the EU and the CEECs on FDI flows in terms of three key issues. First, we provide systematic estimates of the expected long-term level of FDI in the CEECs. Second, we investigate whether FDI in the CEECs, on the one hand, and source country exports and imports, on the other hand, are complements or substitutes. Finally, we enquire whether an increase in the attractiveness of the CEECs to foreign investors has affected the magnitude of FDI going to other European countries.foreign direct investment,transition economies,gravity model