Hamiltonian Dynamics of Bayesian Inference Formalised by Arc Hamiltonian Systems

This paper advances theoretical understanding of infinite-dimensional geometrical properties associated with Bayesian inference. First, we introduce a novel class of infinite-dimensional Hamiltonian systems for saddle Hamiltonian functions whose domains are metric spaces. A flow of this system is generated by a Hamiltonian arc field, an analogue of Hamiltonian vector fields formulated based on (i) the first variation of Hamiltonian functions and (ii) the notion of arc fields that extends vector fields to metric spaces. We establish that this system obeys the conservation of energy. We derive a condition for the existence of the flow, which reduces to local Lipschitz continuity of the first variation under sufficient regularity. Second, we present a system of a Hamiltonian function, called the minimum free energy, whose domain is a metric space of negative log-likelihoods and probability measures. The difference of the posterior and the prior of Bayesian inference is characterised as the first variation of the minimum free energy. Our result shows that a transition from the prior to the posterior defines an arc field on a space of probability measures, which forms a Hamiltonian arc field together with another corresponding arc field on a space of negative log-likelihoods. This reveals the underlying invariance of the free energy behind the arc field

Robust generalised Bayesian inference for intractable likelihoods

Generalised Bayesian inference updates prior beliefs using a loss function, rather than a likelihood, and can therefore be used to confer robustness against possible mis-specification of the likelihood. Here we consider generalised Bayesian inference with a Stein discrepancy as a loss function, motivated by applications in which the likelihood contains an intractable normalisation constant. In this context, the Stein discrepancy circumvents evaluation of the normalisation constant and produces generalised posteriors that are either closed form or accessible using the standard Markov chain Monte Carlo. On a theoretical level, we show consistency, asymptotic normality, and bias-robustness of the generalised posterior, highlighting how these properties are impacted by the choice of Stein discrepancy. Then, we provide numerical experiments on a range of intractable distributions, including applications to kernel-based exponential family models and non-Gaussian graphical models

Generalised Bayesian Inference for Discrete Intractable Likelihood

Discrete state spaces represent a major computational challenge to statistical inference, since the computation of normalisation constants requires summation over large or possibly infinite sets, which can be impractical. This paper addresses this computational challenge through the development of a novel generalised Bayesian inference procedure suitable for discrete intractable likelihood. Inspired by recent methodological advances for continuous data, the main idea is to update beliefs about model parameters using a discrete Fisher divergence, in lieu of the problematic intractable likelihood. The result is a generalised posterior that can be sampled from using standard computational tools, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, circumventing the intractable normalising constant. The statistical properties of the generalised posterior are analysed, with sufficient conditions for posterior consistency and asymptotic normality established. In addition, a novel and general approach to calibration of generalised posteriors is proposed. Applications are presented on lattice models for discrete spatial data and on multivariate models for count data, where in each case the methodology facilitates generalised Bayesian inference at low computational cost

Precometary organic matter: A hidden reservoir of water inside the snow line

The origin and evolution of solar system bodies, including water on the Earth, have been discussed based on the assumption that the relevant ingredients were simply silicates and ices. However, large amounts of organic matter have been found in cometary and interplanetary dust, which are recognized as remnants of interstellar/precometary grains. Precometary organic matter may therefore be a potential source of water; however, to date, there have been no experimental investigations into this possibility. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that abundant water and oil are formed via the heating of a precometary-organic-matter analog under conditions appropriate for the parent bodies of meteorites inside the snow line. This implies that H2O ice is not required as the sole source of water on planetary bodies inside the snow line. Further, we can explain the change in the oxidation state of the Earth from an initially reduced state to a final oxidized state. Our study also suggests that petroleum was present in the asteroids and is present in icy satellites and dwarf planets