The spatio-temporal dynamics of woody biomass supply and demand in response to human utilisation in an African Savanna woodland

The thesis presents a thorough, in-depth study that fills some of the gaps in the knowledge of the impacts of woodland utilisation in communal areas. The chosen case study villages are in Bushbuckridge, a government gazetted Integrated Sustainable Rural Development programme node, making the results pertinent to sustainable energy policy reform in South Africa. A case-study of two villages was used to investigate the spatial and structural changes in fuelwood supply in response to fuelwood extraction as well as the changes in use-patterns over time. A survey of the structure and composition of the woody vegetation and wood harvesting patterns around the villages was conducted and compared against historical data, spanning 17 years. Total wood stock in the communal woodlands of both villages declined over the study period; the loss being greater in Welverdiend. Significant, negative change in the structure and species composition, particularly of species that are commonly harvested for fuelwood has occurred in Welverdiend but not in Athol. The absence of negative impacts in Athol implies that harvesting regimes here are more sustainable but it is more likely that this is due to the lower human population and lower fuelwood extraction pressure. The changes in woodland structure were linked to landcover change patterns that occurred in the villages over the last 44 years, from their creation through forced resettlements on old farms in the area. Landcover change patterns were similar in both villages since 1965 but there was significantly greater woodland loss in Welverdiend (48% woodland loss) in comparison to Athol (25% woodland loss). The systematic loss of woodland areas to agricultural fields was linked to expanding residential areas due to human population growth. Deforestation occurred where woodlands were already impacted through selective harvesting. The physical changes in woodland structure and landcover were linked to a detailed socio-economic analysis of the two villages, providing critically important data for the sustainable management of woodlands in South Africa. The impact of access to electricity on fuelwood consumption rates was carried out through analysis of the economic, time and opportunity costs of fuelwood collection, compared against the different fuelwood availability in each village. In Welverdiend demand for fuelwood has so far proved inelastic; households have adjusted their fuelwood collection regimes, going on fewer collection trips but spending longer times for each trip but ultimately household investment is similar to that in Athol. Fuelwood demand is maintained in Welverdiend by the availability of purchased fuelwood and harvesting in new sites. A model to predict the socio-economic factors at the household and per capita level which affect fuelwood consumption was developed. Revealing in the process that households with access to electricity used less fuelwood annually and the amounts of fuelwood used were influenced by the household perceptions of fuelwood scarcity in the village, Household population size had a direct bearing on the likelihood of households switching to electricity with every addition to the household size decreasing the likelihood of switching by 48%. This study has major implications for the government’s on-going rural electrification programme. Interventions are required that raise awareness about fuelwood availability trends, based on landscape developments and targeting women as the main users of fuelwood

Land-cover change: threats to the grassland biome of South Africa

The Grassland biome of South Africa has been identified as critically endangered and the biome in South Africa most requiring conservation attention through the implementation of efficient, sustainable systematic conservation plans. The ability to predict where land-cover transformation as well as information on the occurrence and severity of current land cover transformation activities, as threats to biodiversity, is required as part of the systematic conservation planning process. Neke & du Plessis (2004) predicted land cover transformation and the severity of the impact on biodiversity in the Grassland biome. This model was based on potential land use suitability models and land cover information for the 1994/5 season extracted from the National Land Cover database (NLC1994). These predictions were tested by assessing actual land cover change in the Grassland biome using observed differences in grassland land cover between the NLC1994 and NLC2000 databases. Methodology Because of differences in format and land-cover classification between the original datasets, both NLC1994 and NLC2000 had to be modified before any analyses could be carried out. These differences exist because different techniques were used to collate the respective datasets, thus introducing the potential for significant mapping error in the original datasets and more significantly erroneous results with respect to landcover change detection. The implications of this were presented in the discussion. Both datasets were spatially resampled and class-standardised and it was felt that this would significantly reduce any the impact of any such existing errords in the original datasets. Thereafter landcover information for the Grassland biome was be extracted and the comparative landcover analyses executed. The analyses carried out included: • Landcover change per landcover class within the Grassland biome with emphasis on the Grassland landclass losses and gains • An assessment and comparison of the relative fragmentation of the remaining grassland patches in both datasets • An assessment of current grassland habitat degradation • The comparison of the predicted land cover change as given by Neke & du Plessis (2004) against the observed grassland changes • The creation of a new Grassland Transformation threat map reflecting current land cover change threats, and including information pertaining to the threats to Grassland biodiversity posed by invasive alien plants, road effects, urban areas and soil erosion hazards. Results and Discussion 25% of the remaining grassland patches underwent transformation to other land classes. Grassland clearing for cultivation, bush encroachment and bushland vegetation regeneration were the main causal factors behind the observed grassland losses. However, grassland vegetation regeneration on formerly cultivated land, bush clearing and reclassification of degraded lands as grasslands in the NLC2000 dataset contributed to a net 2% gain in area of the grassland land class. The remaining grassland patches are more fragmented than they were in NLC1994, the average patch size (NLC2000) is three times smaller and the total number of grassland patches has increased (also by a factor of 3) and the remaining grassland patches are more isolated. The largest, least fragmented grassland patches occur along and to the west of the Great Escarpment as it traverses the Grassland biome. Most of the predictions of grassland transformation were realised, however the model used by Neke & du Plessis (2004) consistently underestimated and in some cases failed to predict the occurrence of grassland transformation in the central interior of the Grassland biome. Current, measurable human activities that act as grassland transformation agents were incorporated to create a threat map showing the extent and severity of land-cover transformation activities within the biome; grassland bird species richness information was then incorporated into this map to create biodiversity transformation threat map. This map was used to show the location and severity of the impacts of human transformation activities on grassland biodiversity. Both transformation threat map reflect the current situation across the biome today and were compared against the Potential transformation threat map produced by Neke & du Plessis (2004). The human transformation threat map confirmed the inability of the Neke & du Plessis model to make correct predictions of land cover change away from the eastern, 7 high altitude boundary of the biome. Given that the biome is defined by its climatic characteristics, the incorporation of global climate change effects would further refine the results gained, and perhaps provide more accurate predictions. As aforementioned, there are however factors existing within the original datasets used in this analysis that may have affected the accuracy of the landcover change analyses. These factors are centred on the potential effects of mapping errors within either of the NLC datasets. The delineation of landclass boundaries in the NLC1994 dataset is one such factor- placing a line over what is in reality a gradient of changing vegetation, is a subjective exercise and depends entirely on the technician involved this in itself may have introduced a fair amount of error in the mapping process. When coupled with the automated classification techniques used, for the most part, for the NLC2000 dataset, it becomes apparent that it is highly unlikely that even in the absence of actual landcover change the same boundaries would be drawn between two landclasses in the same area. This would provide false positive results for landcover change where in fact this is as a result of mapping errors. This is acknowledged and included in the interpretation of the results and it is felt that in spite of this, all possible steps were taken to minimize the impact of these effects on the reslults. The analysis allowed the identification of the current land cover transformations leading to grassland loss. However, land-cover change is only the physical expression of the complex interactions between socio-economic factors. To create effective and sustainable conservation plan for the Grassland biome, with an aim to reducing habitat loss requires an action plan to address these factors as the ultimate drivers of land cover change

Extreme heat events, high ambient temperatures and human morbidity and mortality in Africa: A systematic review

Temperature extremes vary across Africa. A continent-wide examination of the impacts of heat on health in Africa, and a synthesis of Africa-informed evidence is, however, lacking. A systematic review of articles published in peer-reviewed journals between January 1992 and April 2019 was conducted. To be eligible, articles had to be Africa-specific, in English, and focused on how heatwaves and high ambient temperatures affect morbidity and mortality. A secondary systematic analysis on policies and interventions comprising 17 studies was also conducted, and the findings synthesised together with those of the 20 primary studies. Eleven studies showed that high ambient temperatures and heat waves are linked with increased mortality rates in Africa. These linkages are characterised by complex, linear and non-linear (J or U) relationships. Eight of the nine primary studies of morbidity outcome reported that an increase in temperature was accompanied by raised disease incidence. Children and the elderly were the population groups most vulnerable to extreme heat exposure. Location-specific interventions and policy suggestions include developing early warning systems, creating heat-health plans, changing housing conditions and implementing heat-health awareness campaigns. In summary, this review demonstrates that, while heat-health relationships in Africa are complex, extreme temperatures are associated with high mortality and morbidity, especially amongst vulnerable populations. As temperatures increase across Africa, there is an urgent need to develop heat-health plans and implement interventions. Future studies must document intervention effectiveness and quantify the costs of action and inaction on extreme heat-related mortality and morbidity. Significance: Empirical evidence shows that the relationship between heat and human health is complex in the African context. This complexity has implications for the development of interventions and policies for heathealth on the continent. This review is important for African policymakers, practitioners and others who support Africa’s adaptation to climate change. Through this review, a compendium of Africa-specific and relevant empirical information is aggregated and made readily available to various interested and affected parties

Extreme heat events, high ambient temperatures and human morbidity and mortality in Africa : a systematic review

Temperature extremes vary across Africa. A continent-wide examination of the impacts of heat on health in Africa, and a synthesis of Africa-informed evidence is, however, lacking. A systematic review of articles published in peer-reviewed journals between January 1992 and April 2019 was conducted. To be eligible, articles had to be Africa-specific, in English, and focused on how heatwaves and high ambient temperatures affect morbidity and mortality. A secondary systematic analysis on policies and interventions comprising 17 studies was also conducted, and the findings synthesised together with those of the 20 primary studies. Eleven studies showed that high ambient temperatures and heat waves are linked with increased mortality rates in Africa. These linkages are characterised by complex, linear and non-linear (J or U) relationships. Eight of the nine primary studies of morbidity outcome reported that an increase in temperature was accompanied by raised disease incidence. Children and the elderly were the population groups most vulnerable to extreme heat exposure. Location-specific interventions and policy suggestions include developing early warning systems, creating heat-health plans, changing housing conditions and implementing heat-health awareness campaigns. In summary, this review demonstrates that, while heat-health relationships in Africa are complex, extreme temperatures are associated with high mortality and morbidity, especially amongst vulnerable populations. As temperatures increase across Africa, there is an urgent need to develop heat-health plans and implement interventions. Future studies must document intervention effectiveness and quantify the costs of action and inaction on extreme heatrelated mortality and morbidity. SIGNIFICANCE : • Empirical evidence shows that the relationship between heat and human health is complex in the African context. This complexity has implications for the development of interventions and policies for heathealth on the continent. • This review is important for African policymakers, practitioners and others who support Africa’s adaptation to climate change. Through this review, a compendium of Africa-specific and relevant empirical information is aggregated and made readily available to various interested and affected parties.http://www.sajs.co.zahj2022Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorolog

A Delphi assessment of climate change risks in southern Africa in the 21st century

DATA AVAILABILITY : Data will be made available on request.Climate change is acknowledged as one of the greatest environmental and development challenges society faces. Many organisations are now encouraged to conduct assessments of the climate risks they will be exposed to over the next decades. The Global Change Institute (University of Witwatersrand, South Africa) conducted such an assessment for the southern Africa region, to identify some of the main clusters of climate-change related risks. A list of over fifty risks was scored and ranked using a modified-Delphi process; an iterative process of expert-driven risk identification and ranking that was informed from our collective experience and the literature. We focused on the likelihood and consequence in the mid-term (2041–2060) and scored each risk according to this time frame (risk score = [likelihood of event occurring] × [the impact of the event], moderated by the multiple lines of evidence available (Evidence confidence), and the expert rankings of the assessors (Scorer confidence)), using the assumption of the IPCC RCP8.5 climate scenario. The top quartile was organized into five clusters of risk: food insecurity; water shortages; failed energy transition; human heat stress; and risks to nature and the bioeconomy. This paper describes these risk clusters, explored through the lens of available literature, and analysed within the broader framework of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), and the individual and collective actions that can be taken to reduce or adapt to these risks. There are many technical solutions to these risks, but these typically are costly and only function up to a point where the risks become unmanageable. For solutions to be successful, a ‘systems view’ and the complex interlinkages between climate change and socio-economic development must be addressed. The interconnected and cross-sectoral nature of the climate risk domains certainly presents a challenge for governance; the success of some of the measures discussed in this paper depends on the existence of strong, well-resourced, well-coordinated and influential governance mechanisms and state institutions and focusing on investigating the many synergies that exist among solutions.The Carnegie Corporation of New York (Next Generation of African Scholars programme), awarded to the Global Change Institute, University of the Witwatersrand; the Jennifer Ward Oppenheimer Research Grant and the National Research Foundation (NRF) Global Change Social Science Research Programme.http://www.elsevier.com/locate/crmam2024Geography, Geoinformatics and MeteorologyZoology and EntomologySDG-13:Climate actio

Extreme heat events, high ambient temperatures and human morbidity and mortality in Africa: A systematic review

Temperature extremes vary across Africa. A continent-wide examination of the impacts of heat on health in Africa, and a synthesis of Africa-informed evidence is, however, lacking. A systematic review of articles published in peer-reviewed journals between January 1992 and April 2019 was conducted. To be eligible, articles had to be Africa-specific, in English, and focused on how heatwaves and high ambient temperatures affect morbidity and mortality. A secondary systematic analysis on policies and interventions comprising 17 studies was also conducted, and the findings synthesised together with those of the 20 primary studies. Eleven studies showed that high ambient temperatures and heat waves are linked with increased mortality rates in Africa. These linkages are characterised by complex, linear and non-linear (J or U) relationships. Eight of the nine primary studies of morbidity outcome reported that an increase in temperature was accompanied by raised disease incidence. Children and the elderly were the population groups most vulnerable to extreme heat exposure. Location-specific interventions and policy suggestions include developing early warning systems, creating heat-health plans, changing housing conditions and implementing heat-health awareness campaigns. In summary, this review demonstrates that, while heat-health relationships in Africa are complex, extreme temperatures are associated with high mortality and morbidity, especially amongst vulnerable populations. As temperatures increase across Africa, there is an urgent need to develop heat-health plans and implement interventions. Future studies must document intervention effectiveness and quantify the costs of action and inaction on extreme heatrelated mortality and morbidity.  Significance: Empirical evidence shows that the relationship between heat and human health is complex in the African This complexity has implications for the development of interventions and policies for heathealth on the continent. This review is important for African policymakers, practitioners and others who support Africa’s adaptation to climate change. Through this review, a compendium of Africa-specific and relevant empirical information is aggregated and made readily available to various interested and affected parties