Derivation and external validation of a risk score for predicting HIV-associated tuberculosis to support case finding and preventive therapy scale-up: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Among people living with HIV (PLHIV), more flexible and sensitive tuberculosis (TB) screening tools capable of detecting both symptomatic and subclinical active TB are needed to (1) reduce morbidity and mortality from undiagnosed TB; (2) facilitate scale-up of tuberculosis preventive therapy (TPT) while reducing inappropriate prescription of TPT to PLHIV with subclinical active TB; and (3) allow for differentiated HIV-TB care. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used Botswana XPRES trial data for adult HIV clinic enrollees collected during 2012 to 2015 to develop a parsimonious multivariable prognostic model for active prevalent TB using both logistic regression and random forest machine learning approaches. A clinical score was derived by rescaling final model coefficients. The clinical score was developed using southern Botswana XPRES data and its accuracy validated internally, using northern Botswana data, and externally using 3 diverse cohorts of antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive and ART-experienced PLHIV enrolled in XPHACTOR, TB Fast Track (TBFT), and Gugulethu studies from South Africa (SA). Predictive accuracy of the clinical score was compared with the World Health Organization (WHO) 4-symptom TB screen. Among 5,418 XPRES enrollees, 2,771 were included in the derivation dataset; 67% were female, median age was 34 years, median CD4 was 240 cells/μL, 189 (7%) had undiagnosed prevalent TB, and characteristics were similar between internal derivation and validation datasets. Among XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, median CD4 was 400, 73, and 167 cells/μL, and prevalence of TB was 5%, 10%, and 18%, respectively. Factors predictive of TB in the derivation dataset and selected for the clinical score included male sex (1 point), ≥1 WHO TB symptom (7 points), smoking history (1 point), temperature >37.5°C (6 points), body mass index (BMI) 10) yielded TB prevalence of 1%, 1%, 2%, and 6% in the lowest risk group and 33%, 22%, 26%, and 32% in the highest risk group for XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively. At clinical score ≥2, the number needed to screen (NNS) ranged from 5.0 in Gugulethu to 11.0 in XPHACTOR. Limitations include that the risk score has not been validated in resource-rich settings and needs further evaluation and validation in contemporary cohorts in Africa and other resource-constrained settings. CONCLUSIONS: The simple and feasible clinical score allowed for prioritization of sensitivity and NPV, which could facilitate reductions in mortality from undiagnosed TB and safer administration of TPT during proposed global scale-up efforts. Differentiation of risk by clinical score cutoff allows flexibility in designing differentiated HIV-TB care to maximize impact of available resources

Four-Month High-Dose Rifampicin Regimens for Pulmonary Tuberculosis

BACKGROUND Shorter but effective tuberculosis treatment regimens would be of value to the tuberculosis treatment community. High-dose rifampicin has been associated with more rapid and secure lung sterilization and may enable shorter tuberculosis treatment regimens. METHODS We randomly assigned adults who were given a diagnosis of rifampicin-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis to a 6-month control regimen, a similar 4-month regimen of rifampicin at 1200 mg/d (study regimen 1 [SR1]), or a 4-month regimen of rifampicin at 1800 mg/d (study regimen 2 [SR2]). Sputum specimens were collected at regular intervals. The primary end point was a composite of treatment failure and relapse in participants who were sputum smear positive at baseline. The noninferiority margin was 8 percentage points. Using a sequence of ordered hypotheses, noninferiority of SR2 was tested first. RESULTS Between January 2017 and December 2020, 672 patients were enrolled in six countries, including 191 in the control group, 192 in the SR1 group, and 195 in the SR2 group. Noninferiority was not shown. Favorable responses rates were 93, 90, and 87% in the control, SR1, and SR2 groups, respectively, for a country-adjusted absolute risk difference of 6.3 percentage points (90% confidence interval, 1.1 to 11.5) comparing SR2 with the control group. The proportions of participants experiencing a grade 3 or 4 adverse event were 4.0, 4.5, and 4.4% in the control, SR1, and SR2 groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Four-month high-dose rifampicin regimens did not have dose-limiting toxicities or side effects but failed to meet noninferiority criteria compared with the standard 6-month control regimen for treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis. (Funded by the MRC/Wellcome Trust/DFID Joint Global Health Trials Scheme; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02581527.