American banks during the Great Depression: a new research agenda

Banks and banking - History ; Depressions

Time-dependent Real-space Renormalization-Group Approach: application to an adiabatic random quantum Ising model

We develop a time-dependent real-space renormalization-group approach which can be applied to Hamiltonians with time-dependent random terms. To illustrate the renormalization-group analysis, we focus on the quantum Ising Hamiltonian with random site- and time-dependent (adiabatic) transverse-field and nearest-neighbour exchange couplings. We demonstrate how the method works in detail, by calculating the off-critical flows and recovering the ground state properties of the Hamiltonian such as magnetization and correlation functions. The adiabatic time allows us to traverse the parameter space, remaining near-to the ground state which is broadened if the rate of change of the Hamiltonian is finite. The quantum critical point, or points, depend on time through the time-dependence of the parameters of the Hamiltonian. We, furthermore, make connections with Kibble-Zurek dynamics and provide a scaling argument for the density of defects as we adiabatically pass through the critical point of the system

Causes of U.S. Bank Distress During the Depression

This paper provides the first comprehensive econometric analysis of the causes of bank distress during the Depression. We assemble bank-level data for virtually all Fed member banks, and combine those data with county-level, state-level, and national-level economic characteristics to capture cross-sectional and inter-temporal variation in the determinants of bank failure. We construct a model of bank survival duration using these fundamental determinants of bank failure as predictors, and investigate the adequacy of fundamentals for explaining bank failures during alleged episodes of nationwide or regional banking panics. We find that fundamentals explain most of the incidence of bank failure, and argue that contagion' or liquidity crises' were a relatively unimportant influence on bank failure risk prior to 1933. We construct upper-bound measures of the importance of contagion or liquidity crises. At the national level, we find that the first two banking crises identified by Friedman and Schwartz in 1930 and 1931 are not associated with positive unexplained residual failure risk, or with changes in the importance of liquidity measures for forecasting bank failures. The third banking crisis they identify is a more ambiguous case, but even if one views it as a bona fide national liquidity crisis, the size of the contagion effect could not have been very large. The last banking crisis they identify at the beginning of 1933 is associated with important, unexplained increases in bank failure risk. We also investigate the potential role of regional or local contagion and illiquidity crises for promoting bank failure and find some evidence in support of such effects, but these are of small importance in the aggregate. We also investigate the causes of bank distress measured as deposit contraction, using county-level measures of deposits of all commercial banks, and reach similar conclusions about the importance of fundamentals in determining deposit contraction.

A review of World Bank lending for electric power

This paper presents the result of an evaluation of about 300 power projects financed by the World Bank and IDA between 1965 and 1983. The study shows a declining trend in power sector performance in spite of Bank involvement in the sector. It recommends greater emphasis on : improving productive and allocative efficiency; increasing incentives for enhanced utility efficiency; strengthening of power-energy-macroeconomic linkages; improving investment planning to achieve a better balance between generation and distribution, and giving greater emphasis to rehabilitation and maintenance. Sector restructuring and institutional reform is also recommended to improve the social compact between government, consumers and the electric utility.Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Business Environment

What is the value of recourse to asset backed securities? A clinical study of credit card banks

The present paper uses data from revolving credit card securitizations to show that, conditional on being in a position where implicit recourse has become necessary and actually providing that recourse, recourse to securitized debt may benefit short- and long-term stock returns, and long-term operating performance of sponsors. The paper suggests that this result may come about because those sponsors providing the recourse do not seem to be extreme default or insolvency risks. However, sponsors providing recourse do experience an abnormal delay in their normal issuance cycle around the event. Hence, it appears that the asset-backed securities market is like the commercial paper market, where a firm's ability to issue is directly correlated with credit quality. Therefore, although in violation of regulatory guidelines and FASB140, recourse may have beneficial effects for sponsors by revealing that the shocks that made recourse necessary are transitory. ; Also issued as Payment Cards Center Discussion Paper No. 03-04Asset-backed financing ; Credit cards

Contagion and Bank Failures During the Great Depression: The June 1932 Chicago Banking Panic

Studies of pre-Depression banking argue that banking panics resulted from depositor confusion about the incidence of shocks, and that interbank cooperation avoided unwarranted failures. This paper uses individual bank data to address the question of whether solvent Chicago banks failed during the panic asthe result of confusion by depositors. Chicago banks are divided" into three groups: panic failures, failures outside the panic window, and survivors. The characteristics of these three groups are compared to determine whether the banks that failed during the panic were similar ex ante" to those that survived the panic or whether they shared characteristics with other banks that failed. Each category of comparison -- the market-to-book value of equity, the estimated probability or failure or duration of survival the composition of debt, the rates of withdrawal of debt during 1931, and the interest rates paid on debt -- leads to the same conclusion: banks that failed during the panic were similar to others that failed and different from survivors. The special attributes of failing banks were distinguishable at least six months before the panic and were reflected in stock prices, failure probabilities, debt composition, and interest rates at least that far in advance. We conclude that failures during the panic reflected relative weakness in the face of common asset value shock rather than contagion. Other evidence points to cooperation among solvent Chicago banks a key factor in avoiding unwarranted bank failures during the panic.

Credit card securitization and regulatory arbitrage

This paper explores the motivations and desirability of off-balance-sheet financing of credit card receivables by banks. We explore three related issues: the degree to which securitizations result in the transfer of risk out of the originating bank, the extent to which securitization permits banks to economize on capital by avoiding regulatory minimum capital requirements, and whether banks' avoidance of minimum capital regulation through securitization with implicit recourse has been undesirable from a regulatory standpoint. We show that this intermediation structure could be motivated either by desirable efficient contracting in the presence of asymmetric information or by undesirable safety net abuse. We find that securitization results in some transfer of risk out of the originating bank but that risk remains in the securitizing bank as a result of implicit recourse. Clearly, then, securitization with implicit recourse provides an important means of avoiding minimum capital requirements. We also find, however, that securitizing banks set their capital relative to managed assets according to market perceptions of their risk and seem not to be motivated by maximizing implicit subsidies relating to the government safety net when managing their risk. Thus, the evidence is more consistent with the efficient contracting view of securitization with implicit recourse than with the safety net abuse view. Concerns expressed by policymakers about this form of capital requirement avoidance appear to be overstated. ; Also issued as Payment Cards Center Discussion Paper No. 03-05Credit cards

Resolving the puzzle of the underissuance of national bank notes

The puzzle of underissuance of national bank notes disappears when one disaggregates data, takes account of regulatory limits, and considers differences in opportunity costs. Banks with poor lending opportunities maximized their issuance. Other banks chose to limit issuance. Redemption costs do not explain cross-sectional variation in issuance, and the observed relationship between note issuance and excess reserves is inconsistent with the redemption risk hypothesis of underissuance. National banks did not enter primarily to issue national bank notes, and a “pure arbitrage” strategy of chartering a national bank only to issue national bank notes would not have been profitable. Indeed, new entrants issued less while banks exiting were often maximum issuers. Economies of scope between note issuing and deposit banking included shared overhead costs and the ability to reduce costs of mandatory minimum reserve and capital requirements.Bank notes ; National banks (United States)