The mega-project paradox : is the “new-build programme” the last mega-project South Africa will see this century

Abstract : Projects are constructed daily across the globe. However very few of these are mega-projects. These mega-projects are deemed grand in scale and are designed to serve millions of people. Over the years a trend has emerged where these projects are having increasing problems related to time and cost overruns – despite issues related to labour, poor project management, reduced return on investment, poor design and non-completion – increasingly mega-projects are being built. Therein lies the mega-project paradox. Mega-projects are now facing major external market disruptors such as the spread of solar photovoltaics, economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa, diversifying the energy mix, changing consumer dynamics and market structure. One of the biggest threats to utilities is the changing regulatory reform and the move to ‘prosumers’. Given Eskom’s delayed and expensive New Build programme, the question then arises –will South Africa embark on another mega-project build in this century. This study utilised both primary and secondary data for analysis by means of mixed methods. Primary data from online surveys as well as analysis of secondary data from the Infrastructure Journal were used. Sixty percent (60%) of survey respondents said that South Africa would embark on another mega-project. This study reveals that mega-projects have sublimes which perhaps influence investment in them – political, economic, technological and aesthetic sublimes. In addition to these sublimes the social pacts these mega-projects bring are one of the biggest drivers for their investment. Furthermore, the future utility model has changed and Eskom will not survive the utility death spiral unless it adapts.M.Phil. (Energy Studies