A Bayesian construction of asymptotically unbiased estimators

A differential geometric framework to construct an asymptotically unbiased estimator of a function of a parameter is presented. The derived estimator asymptotically coincides with the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator, if a complete sufficient statistic exists. The framework is based on the maximum a posteriori estimation, where the prior is chosen such that the estimator is unbiased. The framework is demonstrated for the second-order asymptotic unbiasedness (unbiased up to $O(n^{-1})$ for a sample of size $n$). The condition of the asymptotic unbiasedness leads the choice of the prior such that the departure from a kind of harmonicity of the estimand is canceled out at each point of the model manifold. For a given estimand, the prior is given as an integral. On the other hand, for a given prior, we can address the bias of what estimator can be reduced by solving an elliptic partial differential equation. A family of invariant priors, which generalizes the Jeffreys prior, is mentioned as a specific example. Some illustrative examples of applications of the proposed framework are provided.Comment: 28 pages, 2 figure

Small Area Estimation under Square Root Transformed Fay-Herriot model with Functional Measurement Error in Covariates

We consider a small area estimation model under square-root transformation in the presence of functional measurement error. When measurement error is present, the Bayes predictor can no longer be used as it depends on the covariates even if parameters are known. Therefore suitable replacements are called for, and we propose a predictor that only depends on observed responses and data obtained from a large secondary survey. Moreover, some estimating methods of unknown parameters are considered. In the simulations section, We evaluate the performance using the mean squared prediction error (MSPE) and discuss several scenarios in terms of the number of areas and the sample size in a large secondary survey.Comment: 12 pages, two table

立川市町丁目別住民意識調査分析追記—小地域推定モデル活用に向けて—

統計数理研究所75周年記念 –研究業績紹介