Can the Philippines Achieve its CO2 Reduction Commitment with Renewable Energy?

The Philippines always aims to achieve economic growth, which requires expanding economic activities, resulting in increased pollution (Stern, 2017). The country signified its intention to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 75% in COP26 (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC], 2021). Part of its strategy to combat CO2 emissions is by increasing its share of renewable energy (RE) sources to at least 35% of the total energy matrix (Department of Energy [DOE], 2021). The Philippines’ ability to reach its COP26 commitment through a scenario approach on the effects of increasing GDP and share of RE to CO2 emissions using Kaya Identity and EKC was investigated. Geometric growth and target-oriented forecasting were performed to generate the forecast period. The Kaya Identity computed the total factor CO2 emissions of the country. The EKC investigated whether increases in GDP, incorporated with the share of RE, result in declining CO2 emissions. Results showed that in scenarios 5 to 7, where GDP and share of RE are increasing based on targets, the Philippines enters post-industrialization stage 3 of environmental responsibility, wherein increases in GDP result in declining CO2 emissions. Evidence suggests the Philippines must remain aggressive in its RE investments to reach its COP26 carbon dioxide emissions reduction commitment