Foreign banks and foreign currency lending in emerging Europe

Based on survey data from 193 banks in 20 countries we provide the first bank-level analysis of the relationship between bank ownership, bank funding and foreign currency (FX) lending across emerging Europe. Our results contradict the widespread view that foreign banks have been driving FX lending to retail clients as a result of easier access to foreign wholesale funding. Our cross-sectional analysis shows that foreign banks do lend more in FX to corporate clients but not to households. Moreover, we find no evidence that wholesale funding had a strong causal effect on FX lending for either foreign or domestic banks. Panel estimations show that the foreign acquisition of a domestic bank does lead to faster growth in FX lending to households. However, this is driven by faster growth in household lending in general not by a shift towards FX lending.Foreign banks; FX lending; financial integration; Emerging Europe

Foreign currency lending in emerging Europe: bank-level evidence

Based on survey data from 193 banks in 20 countries we provide the first bank-level analysis of the determinants of foreign currency (FX) lending in emerging Europe. We find that FX lending by all banks, regardless of their ownership structure, is strongly determined by the macroeconomic environment. We find no evidence of foreign banks ‘pushing’ FX loans indiscriminately because of easier access to wholesale funding in foreign currency. In fact, while foreign banks do lend more in FX to corporate clients, they do not do so to retail clients. We also find that after a take-over by a foreign bank, the acquired bank does not increase its FX lending any faster than a bank which remains in domestic hands.

A Markov model of Diabetic Retinopathy Progression for the Economic Evaluation of a novel DR prognostic device, CHERE Working Paper 2007/14

The initial diagnosis of Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) is often in the advance stages of the condition, as patients are only promoted for an examination when sight has been affected. An innovative prognostic technique has recently been made available which can non-invasively detect the damaging effects of high blood glucose before the development of clinical symptoms. This innovation offers the opportunity to patients to make the necessary behavioural and medicinal modification to prevent further progress of the disease. This paper reports the development of a Markov model which emulates the natural progression of Diabetic Retinopathy based on data from clinical trials. The purpose of such a model is to estimate the chronic cost and health outcomes of DR, and it may be modified to reflect the potential changes in current practice or condition changes, hence allowing for an economic evaluation of the DR prognostic test. The implications and limitations of the model were also discussed in the paper.Diabetic retinopathy, economic evaluation