Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in China and Southeast Asia

Distorted incentives, agricultural and trade policy reforms, national agricultural development, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, F13, F14, Q17, Q18,

A Need for Caution in Applying the Volume-Based Special Safeguard Mechanism

The proximate cause of the collapse of the Doha Agenda negotiations in 2008 was disagreement over the volume-based Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM). This measure would provide a right, but not an obligation, for developing countries to impose a duty when imports increase. While many simulations of its impact on domestic prices are available, there appear to be no analyses of its potential impacts on the welfare of poor households. Whether such a safeguard will increase or reduce poverty can only be determined empirically—if there are enough small, poor farmers who are net sellers of the commodity when the duty is imposed, then imposition of a safeguard duty may reduce poverty. If, by contrast, most small, poor farmers are net buyers of the products subject to the duty, then it is likely that poverty will rise. Empirical analysis for twenty-eight countries finds that poverty is generally increased following the imposition of a safeguard-type measure. The adverse poverty impact of the safeguard-induced increase in prices is typically larger when the safeguard can be triggered, because the adverse output shocks typically giving rise to import surges when import prices have not declined reduce the benefit to poor producing households from higher prices.International Relations/Trade,

Promoting global agricultural growth and poverty reduction

Constraints on resources, growth in demand, and a slowdown in agricultural productivity raise concerns that food prices may rise substantially over the next decades. The impacts of such higher prices on the poor and the required mitigating policy responses to this problem remain unclear. This paper uses a global general equilibrium model, projections of global growth and microeconomic household models, to project potential implications for incomes, food production and poverty. We find that higher agricultural productivity would generally lower poverty, with different impacts depending where the productivity growth occurs, while protection policies that reduce imports would generally raise poverty.poverty, growth, projections, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use,

Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia

Distorted incentives, agricultural and trade policy reforms, national agricultural development, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, F13, F14, Q17, Q18,

Agricultural Trade Reform Under the Doha Agenda: Ready for Takeoff?

A successful agreement on agriculture is critical for an overall agreement under the Doha negotiations. But before the final agreement is known, some critical decisions must be made about issues such as resumption of the negotiations, and the key tradeoffs to be made following resumption. We consider four of the most controversial areas of the agricultural negotiations: the relative importance of domestic support, market access and export subsidies; the sensitive-product exceptions sought for all countries; the additional special product exceptions sought for developing countries; and the proposed special safeguard mechanism. We show that the decisions made on reform in these areas will have a critical influence on whether the negotiations achieve their objectives of promoting trade reform and reducing poverty. In the end, we are cautiously optimistic about the potential for the negotiations to deliver a substantial outcome.International Relations/Trade,

STATE-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL BEEF POLICY: THE USE OF STATE ECONOMETRIC MODELS

Interest has grown in analyzing the impact of national imports of foreign beef on state agricultural sectors. In this study, an interfaced Hawaiian-national model is simulated for a change in national beef imports. Hawaiian and national impacts demonstrate wide variation in both sign and magnitude. Usefulness of state models is emphasized for situations where state impacts of national policies are of interest.Agricultural and Food Policy,

THE EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE BEEF IMPORT QUOTA REGIMES ON THE BEEF INDUSTRIES OF THE AGGREGATE UNITED STATES AND HAWAII

The effects of the 1964 and 1979 beef import laws on the beef industries of the aggregate United States and Hawaii are simulated for 1972-81 by linking Hawaii and national econometric models. Although impacts are slight for both models, Hawaii beef prices and production appear to be less affected by changes in beef import rules.International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,