Dynamical analysis of the Gliese-876 Laplace resonance

The existence of multiple planetary systems involved in mean motion conmensurabilities has increased significantly since the Kepler mission. Although most correspond to 2-planet resonances, multiple resonances have also been found. The Laplace resonance is a particular case of a three-body resonance where the period ratio between consecutive pairs is n_1/n_2 near to n_2/n_3 near to 2/1. It is not clear how this triple resonance can act in order to stabilize (or not) the systems. The most reliable extrasolar system located in a Laplace resonance is GJ876 because it has two independent confirmations. However best-fit parameters were obtained without previous knowledge of resonance structure and no exploration of all the possible stable solutions for the system where done. In the present work we explored the different configurations allowed by the Laplace resonance in the GJ876 system by varying the planetary parameters of the third outer planet. We find that in this case the Laplace resonance is a stabilization mechanism in itself, defined by a tiny island of regular motion surrounded by (unstable) highly chaotic orbits. Low eccentric orbits and mutual inclinations from -20 to 20 degrees are compatible with the observations. A definite range of mass ratio must be assumed to maintain orbital stability. Finally we give constrains for argument of pericenters and mean anomalies in order to assure stability for this kind of systems.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figures, accepted in MNRA

“Does the tail wag the dog? The effect of credit default swaps on credit risk”

Credit default swaps (CDS) are derivative contracts that are widely used as tools for credit risk management. However, in recent years, concerns have been raised about whether CDS trading itself affects the credit risk of the reference entities. We use a unique, comprehensive sample covering CDS trading of 901 North American corporate issuers, between June 1997 and April 2009, to address this question. We find that the probability of both a credit rating downgrade and bankruptcy increase, with large economic magnitudes, after the inception of CDS trading. This finding is robust to controlling for the endogeneity of CDS trading. Beyond the CDS introduction effect, we show that firms with relatively larger amounts of CDS contracts outstanding, and those with relatively more “no restructuring” contracts than other types of CDS contracts covering restructuring, are more adversely affected by CDS trading. Moreover, the number of creditors increases after CDS trading begins, exacerbating creditor coordination failure for the resolution of financial distress

Relationship between depressive symptom severity and emergency department use among low-income, depressed homebound older adults aged 50 years and older

Namkee G. Choi, and C. Nathan Marti are with The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA. -- Martha L. Bruce is with the Weill Cornell Medical College, White Plains, NY, USA. -- Mark E. Kunik is with the VA HSRD Houston Center of Excellence, Michael E. DeBakey VA Medical Center, Houston, TX, USA, and Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA, and VA South Central Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center, Houston, TX, USA.Background: Previous research found a high prevalence of depression, along with chronic illnesses and disabilities, among older ED patients. This study examined the relationship between depressive symptom severity and the number of ED visits among low-income homebound older adults who participated in a randomized controlled trial of telehealth problem-solving therapy (PST). Methods: The number of and reasons for ED visits were collected from the study participants (n=121 at baseline) at all assessment points—baseline and 12- and 24-week follow-ups. Depressive symptoms were measured with the 24-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HAMD). All multivariable analyses examining the relationships between ED visits and depressive symptoms were conducted using zero-inflated Poisson regression models. Results: Of the participants, 67.7% used the ED at least once and 61% of the visitors made at least one return visit during the approximately 12-month period. Body pain (not from fall injury and not including chest pain) was the most common reason. The ED visit frequency at baseline and at follow-up was significantly positively associated with the HAMD scores at the assessment points. The ED visit frequency at follow-up, controlling for the ED visits at baseline, was also significantly associated with the HAMD score change since baseline. Conclusions: The ED visit rate was much higher than those reported in other studies. Better education on self-management of chronic conditions, depression screening by primary care physicians and ED, and depression treatment that includes symptom management and problem-solving skills may be important to reduce ED visits among medically ill, low-income homebound adults. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00903019Psycholog

Deep Infrared Imaging of the Microquasars 1E1740-2942 and GRS 1758-258

We present deep infrared ($2.2 \mu$m) imaging of the Galactic microquasars 1E1740-2942 and GRS 1758-258 using the Keck-I 10-meter telescope in June 1998. The observations were taken under excellent seeing conditions (\sim 0.45 \arcsec full-width half-maximum), making them exceptionally deep for these crowded fields. We used the USNO-A2.0 catalog to astrometrically calibrate the infrared images (along with an optical CCD image in the case of GRS 1758-258), providing independent frame ties to the known radio positions of the objects. For 1E1740-2942, we confirm potential candidates for the microquasar previously identified by Marti et al., and show that none of the objects near the microquasar have varied significantly from 1998 to 1999. For GRS 1758-258, our astrometry indicates a position shifted from previous reports of candidates for the microquasar. We find no candidates inside our 90% confidence radius to a $2 \sigma$ limiting magnitude of $K_s = 20.3$ mag. We discuss the implications of these results for the nature of the microquasar binary systems.Comment: To appear in the Astrophysical Journal; 15 pages, including 4 figure

H-alpha observations of the gamma-ray-emitting Be/X-ray binary LSI+61303: orbital modulation, disk truncation, and long-term variability

We report 138 spectral observations of the H-alpha emission line of the radio- and gamma-ray-emitting Be/X-ray binary LSI+61303 obtained during the period of September 1998 -- January 2013. From measuring various H-alpha parameters, we found that the orbital modulation of the H-alpha is best visible in the equivalent width ratio EW(B)/EW(R), the equivalent width of the blue hump, and in the radial velocity of the central dip. The periodogram analysis confirmed that the H-alpha emission is modulated with the orbital and superorbital periods. For the past 20 years the radius of the circumstellar disk is similar to the Roche lobe size at the periastron. It is probably truncated by a 6:1 resonance. The orbital maximum of the equivalent width of H-alpha emission peaks after the periastron and coincides on average with the X-ray and gamma-ray maxima. All the spectra are available upon request from the authors and through the CDS.Comment: 11 pages, accepted for publication in A&

An Examination of the Static and Dynamic Performance of Interest Rate Option Pricing Models In the Dollar Cap-Floor Markets

This paper examines the static and dynamic accuracy of interest rate option pricing models in the U.S. dollar interest rate cap and floor markets. We evaluate alternative one-factor and two-factor term structure models of the spot and the forward interest rates on the basis of their out-of-sample predictive ability in terms of pricing and hedging performance. The one-factor models analyzed consist of two spot-rate specifications (Hull and White (1990) and Black-Karasinski (1991), five forward rate specifications (within the general Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1990b) class), and one LIBOR market model (Brace, Gatarek and Musiela (1997) [BGM]). For two-factor models, two alternative forward rate specifications are implemented within the HJM framework. We conduct tests on daily data from March-December 1998, consisting of actual cap and floor prices across both strike rates and maturities. Results show that fitting the skew of the underlying interest rate distribution provides accurate pricing results within a one-factor framework. However, for hedging performance, introducing a second stochastic factor is more important than fitting the skew of the underlying distribution. Overall, the one-factor lognormal model for short term interest rates outperforms other competing models in pricing tests, while two-factor models perform significantly better than one-factor models in hedging tests. Modeling the second factor allows a better representation of the dynamic evolution of the term structure by incorporating expected twists in the yield curve. Thus, the interest rate dynamics embedded in two-factor models appears to be closer to the one driving the actual economic environment, leading to more accurate hedges. This constitutes evidence against claims in the literature that correctly specified and calibrated one-factor models could replace multi-factor models for consistent pricing and hedging of interest rate contingent claims