Kaon photoproduction on the nucleon with constrained parameters

The new experimental data of kaon photoproduction on the nucleon, gamma p -> K+ Lambda, have been analyzed by means of a multipoles model. Different from the previous models, in this analysis the resonance decay widths are constrained to the values given by the Particle Data Group (PDG). The result indicates that constraining these parameters to the PDG values could dramatically change the conclusion of the important resonances in this reaction found in the previous studies.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, talk given by Ryky Nelson at Fourth Asia-Pacific Conference on Few-Body Problems in Physics 2008 (APFB08), Depok, Indonesia, August 19-23, 200

Gerasimov-Drell-Hearn Sum Rule and the Discrepancy between the New CLAS and SAPHIR Data

Contribution of the K^+\Lambda channel to the Gerasimov-Drell-Hearn (GDH) sum rule has been calculated by using the models that fit the recent SAPHIR or CLAS differential cross section data. It is shown that the two data sets yield quite different contributions. Contribution of this channel to the forward spin polarizability of the proton has been also calculated. It is also shown that the inclusion of the recent CLAS C_x and C_z data in the fitting data base does not significantly change the result of the present calculation. Results of the fit, however, reveal the role of the S_{11}(1650), P_{11}(1710), P_{13}(1720), and P_{13}(1900) resonances for the description of the C_x and C_z data. A brief discussion on the importance of these resonances is given. Measurements of the polarized total cross section \sigma_{TT'} by the CLAS, LEPS, and MAMI collaborations are expected to verify this finding.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figure

Role of the K1K_1 meson in K0K^0 photoproduction off the deuteron

Neutral kaon photoproduction off the nucleon and deuteron has been reinvestigated by utilizing the new experimental data on both targets. An isobar model for elementary operator and impulse approximation for the reaction on the deuteron have been used. The available free parameters in the elementary model have been extracted from both elementary and deuteron data. In contrast to the elementary reaction, fitting the deuteron data requires an inclusion of weighting factor. The result indicates that the angular distribution of the elementary $K^0\Lambda$ process does not show backward peaking behavior.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, prepared for the Fifth Asia-Pacific Conference on Few-Body Problems in Physics 2011 (APFB2011), Seoul, Korea, August 22-26, 201

Long-Term Load Forecasting Considering Volatility Using Multiplicative Error Model

Long-term load forecasting plays a vital role for utilities and planners in terms of grid development and expansion planning. An overestimate of long-term electricity load will result in substantial wasted investment in the construction of excess power facilities, while an underestimate of future load will result in insufficient generation and unmet demand. This paper presents first-of-its-kind approach to use multiplicative error model (MEM) in forecasting load for long-term horizon. MEM originates from the structure of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model where conditional variance is dynamically parameterized and it multiplicatively interacts with an innovation term of time-series. Historical load data, accessed from a U.S. regional transmission operator, and recession data for years 1993-2016 is used in this study. The superiority of considering volatility is proven by out-of-sample forecast results as well as directional accuracy during the great economic recession of 2008. To incorporate future volatility, backtesting of MEM model is performed. Two performance indicators used to assess the proposed model are mean absolute percentage error (for both in-sample model fit and out-of-sample forecasts) and directional accuracy.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, 3 table

Extinction by Miscalculation:

Species at Risk Act, Sakinaw sockeye, Cultus sockeye, fisheries management, extinction.

Gauge-invariant tree-level photoproduction amplitudes with form factors

We show how the gauge-invariance formulation given by Haberzettl is implemented in practice for photoproduction amplitudes at the tree level with form factors describing composite nucleons. We demonstrate that, in contrast to Ohta's gauge-invariance prescription, this formalism allows electric current contributions to be multiplied by a form factor, i.e., it does not require that they be treated like bare currents. While different in detail, this nevertheless lends support to previous ad hoc approaches which multiply the Born amplitudes by an overall form factor. Numerical results for kaon photoproduction off the nucleon are given. They show that the gauge procedure by Haberzettl leads to much improved $\chi^2$ values as compared to Ohta's prescription.Comment: 5 pages, RevTeX, two eps figure