ASSESSING THE ACCURACY OF COST ESTIMATES USING STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES

Accurate cost estimates are vital to sustaining Navy Expeditionary Combat Command (NECC) operational forces. Currently, NECC needs a method to assess the accuracy of future cost estimates that will not disrupt its existing cost estimation process during the POM cycle. Accuracy is the sole metric used in this study to analyze and assess the effectiveness of a cost estimate. This research uses statistical techniques to assess the cost estimate’s accuracy, including single variable linear regression, Monte Carlo simulation, and a proportional scale-down model. The sample of sustainment cost data spans from FY 2016 to 2021. The point estimates from the regression model revealed that the total aggregate cost decreases by just under $16.6 million in constant year 2018 dollars (CY18$) each fiscal year. I applied the point estimate and standard error to the Monte Carlo simulation to produce a normal probability distribution with a range of possible outcomes (i.e., probability of occurrence linked to each value within that range). For the FY2025 scenario simulation, the mean value representing the most likely estimate is $303,649,744 (CY18$), and the standard deviation is $7,767,962 (CY18$). The proportional scale factor model breaks down the aggregate estimate to a lower level of programmatic detail for additional analysis. Applying statistical techniques to the existing process will help ensure that operational forces receive sufficient resources to accomplish the mission.NPS Naval Research ProgramMajor, United States Marine CorpsApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Navy Expeditionary Readiness Cost Modeling

Prepared for: Expeditionary Readiness (N834), Fleet Readiness and Assessment (N83). This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). NRP Project ID: NPS-22-N252-AMilitary services estimate the budget for activities associated with operational readiness using mathematical models. OPNAV N834 (Expeditionary Readiness) presently uses an N81 accredited Capability Costing Model (CCM) to inform the annual sustainment requirements for the Navy Expeditionary Combat Enterprise. This research aims to analyze the CCM, execution data, and phases of the Optimized Fleet Response Plan to evaluate the computational and analytical performance of the model. We dissected the existing CCM, assessed the importance of factors in accurately predicting sustainment spending, and explored avenues for model enhancement.Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program, Monterey, CA Expeditionary Readiness (N834), Fleet Readiness and Assessment (N83), Washington, DCNaval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098)Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Incorporating immunizations into routine obstetric care to facilitate Health Care Practitioners in implementing maternal immunization

Immunization against pertussis, influenza, and rubella reduces morbidity and mortality in pregnant women and their offspring. Health care professionals (HCPs) caring for women perinatally are uniquely placed to reduce maternal vaccine preventable diseases (VPDs). Despite guidelines recommending immunization during the perinatal period, maternal vaccine uptake remains low. This qualitative study explored the role of obstetricians, general practitioners, and midwives in maternal vaccine uptake. Semi-structured interviews (n = 15) were conducted with perinatal HCPs at a tertiary maternity hospital in South Australia. HCPs were asked to reflect on their knowledge, beliefs, and practice relating to immunization advice and vaccine provision. Interviews were transcribed and coded using thematic analysis. Data collection and analysis was an iterative process, with collection ceasing with theoretical saturation. Participants unanimously supported maternal vaccination as an effective way of reducing risk of disease in this vulnerable population, however only rubella immunity detection and immunization is embedded in routine care. Among these professionals, delegation of responsibility for maternal immunization was unclear and knowledge about maternal immunization was variable. Influenza and pertussis vaccine prevention measures were not included in standard pregnancy record documentation, information provision to patients was ad hoc and vaccinations not offered on-site. The key finding was that the incorporation of maternal vaccinations into standard care through a structured process is an important facilitator for immunization uptake. Incorporating vaccine preventable disease management measures into routine obstetric care including incorporation into the Pregnancy Record would facilitate HCPs in implementing recommendations. Rubella prevention provides a useful template for other vaccines. 2014 Landes Bioscience

A False Sense of Security: Disseminated Tuberculosis Despite a Negative QuantiFERON-TB Gold Test

Over a quarter of the world’s population is infected with Tuberculosis (TB)1 and 5-10% of cases of latent TB infection (LTBI) progress to active TB in an individual’s lifetime.Though screening tests are widely utilized for diagnosing LTBI, they are far from perfect.This describes a case of disseminated TB in a patient treated with aggressive immunosuppression after a false-negativeQuantiFERON-TB Gold test

Revisiting competition in a classic model system using formal links between theory and data

Formal links between theory and data are a critical goal for ecology. However, while our current understanding of competition provides the foundation for solving many derived ecological problems, this understanding is fractured because competition theory and data are rarely unified. Conclusions from seminal studies in space-limited benthic marine systems, in particular, have been very influential for our general understanding of competition, but rely on traditional empirical methods with limited inferential power and compatibility with theory. Here we explicitly link mathematical theory with experimental field data to provide a more sophisticated understanding of competition in this classic model system. In contrast to predictions from conceptual models, our estimates of competition coefficients show that a dominant space competitor can be equally affected by interspecific competition with a poor competitor (traditionally defined) as it is by intraspecific competition. More generally, the often-invoked competitive hierarchies and intransitivities in this system might be usefully revisited using more sophisticated empirical and analytical approaches

Relevant Education in Math and Science (REMS): K-12 STEM Outreach Program using Industrial Engineering Applications

Relevant Education in Math and Science (REMS): K-12 STEM Outreach Program using Industrial Engineering Applications. Relevant Education in Math and Science (REMS) is a university-led STEM outreach program designed to use real-world industrial engineering problems to make 5th – 12th grade math and science fun and meaningful for students. In this work, we present the nine current engineering lab activities, developed in both in-lab and on-line format consisting of three different real-world contexts: competitive manufacturing, distribution, and healthcare. These activities are linked to curricular subject standards found in math and science at elementary, middle and high school grade levels. In addition, we present the multi-phased design, development, and assessment and evaluation process that was utilized to produce this program, including the results of over 1,300 surveys completed by students and teachers who have participated in the program activities

Phylogeny and potential virulence of cryptic clade Escherichia coli species complex isolates derived from an arable field trial

Analysis of Escherichia coli taxonomy has expanded into a species-complex with the identification of divergent cryptic clades. A key question is the evolutionary trajectory of these clades and their relationship to isolates of clinical or veterinary importance. Since they have some environmental association, we screened a collection of E. coli isolated from a long-term spring barley field trial for their presence. While most isolates clustered into the enteric-clade, four of them clustered into Clade-V, and one in Clade-IV. The Clade -V isolates shared >96% intra-clade average nucleotide sequence identity but <91% with other clades. Although pan-genomics analysis confirmed their taxonomy as Clade -V (E. marmotae), retrospective phylogroup PCR did not discriminate them correctly. Differences in metabolic and adherence gene alleles occurred in the Clade -V isolates compared to E. coli sensu scricto. They also encoded the bacteriophage phage-associated cyto-lethal distending toxin (CDT) and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes, including an ESBL, blaOXA-453. Thus, the isolate collection encompassed a genetic diversity, and included cryptic clade isolates that encode potential virulence factors. The analysis has determined the phylogenetic relationship of cryptic clade isolates with E. coli sensu scricto and indicates a potential for horizontal transfer of virulence factors

A quest for personal meaning and wholeness through the movement experience : an alternative perspective

The central question of this inquiry is: Does the movement experience facilitate personal meaning and wholeness? Existential-phenomenological insights are drawn from writers such as Merleau-Ponty, Bakan, and Kleinman. A major premise underlying this study is that personal wholeness is contingent on coming to terms with two symbiotic, yet paradoxical human impulses; the need for autonomy (agency) and the need for connection with others (communion). Our holistic quest is to come to terms with these two dimensions in ourselves, and show how movement facilitates their reconciliation. The major concern of this study is the increasing alienation experienced by students who feel unembodied, unfree, and unconnected in physical education. Alienation or depersonalization occurs when the inner subjective feelings and the outer observable dimensions of movement are split from each other. Our continued reliance on Newtonian and Cartesian dualistic thought as the theoretical base for physical education supports and compounds the alienation dilemma

Effects of Early Exposure to Sign Language on the Biomechanics of Interpreting

Sign language interpreters are routinely exposed to the high physical and cognitive demands inherent to the profession. Unfortunately, many interpreters suffer from musculoskeletal disorders as a result of this exposure. There are a myriad of factors that can contribute to the development of a musculoskeletal disorder, but many of these are not under the control of the interpreter. However, individual technique is something that affects upper extremity biomechanics and is something that an interpreter can regulate. Research with musicians has demonstrated that early exposure to musical technique can lead to the development of a technique that is more biomechanically efficient than the technique used by musicians who learn later in life. By extension, a similar effect may exist among sign language interpreters based on the age at which an interpreter first gains competency in a signed language. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether interpreters who learn sign language at a young age (middle school or younger) sign differently than interpreters who did not learn sign language until after high school. An experiment was conducted in which two groups of interpreters interpreted a recorded classroom lecture. Instrumentation was used to evaluate the posture, velocity, and acceleration of the wrist. For all biomechanical variables analyzed, no statistically significant difference was observed between the interpreters who learned sign language early in life and the interpreters who learned sign language later in life