Europäische Währungsunion und Konsequenzen für die Kollektivvertragspolitik

Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Serie

Die Rolle der Fiskalpolitik im schwedischen Wohlfahrtsstaat

Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Serie

Budgetpolitik im Zeitalter verminderter Erwartungen

The concept of financial balances implies that the general government balance can be improved only if the enterprise sector and the foreign sector simultaneously increase their financial deficits and the household sector cuts its surplus. This paper explores how these adjustments can be influenced by economic policy during “a period of diminished expectations” (a period of weak GDP growth which is expected to persist for the coming years). Credit financed growth of private investment is unlikely to accelerate as capacity utilization rates are low. Increased spending by the foreign sector, which allows an export oriented growth strategy, could be dampened by simultaneous budget consolidation efforts of all European countries. Savings rates of private households have increased during the crisis. In order to reduce them various alternatives are discussed. Firstly, a credit financed housing bubble This has been practiced by some economies in recent years, but proved to be not sustainable. Secondly, a decline of unemployment rates and consequently of precautionary saving: During periods of low growth of GDP and employment, improvements in the employment elasticity of growth enhancing policy measures and reductions of working time could be effective in this respect. Thirdly, incentives for upper income households to expand investment expenditures and cut back their savings. Fourthly, a redistribution of wealth and income: This strategy leads to a decrease of average savings rates and an increase of consumption rates of private households.Budget consolidation, fiscal balances, savings rates of private households

Ohne Priorität für Kampf gegen Arbeitslosigkeit keine Entspannung auf dem Arbeitsmarkt. Zur neuen WIFO-Prognose

Die neue Wirtschaftsprognose des WIFO erwartet für das Jahr 2021 einen sehr bescheidenen Anstieg der Wirtschaftsleistung (BIP) um 1,5 Prozent bis 2,3 Prozent – trotz des tiefen Einbruchs im Jahr 2020. Österreich hinkt auch im europäischen Vergleich nach, besonders gegenüber Deutschland. Das liegt nicht an Warenexport und Güterproduktion, sondern am hohen Anteil des Tourismus, am schlechten Pandemie-Management und an den ungenügenden Maßnahmen der Regierung gegen die sozialen Folgen der Krise. Die Forderung nach einer mutigen Arbeitsmarkt- und Investitionsoffensive bleibt dringend

Business Cycle Upturn not in Sight. Economic Outlook for 2003 and 2004

The Austrian economy is suffering from persistently weak overall demand. Thus, GDP will expand by only 0.7 percent this year; a tentative projection for 2004 suggests a growth rate of 1.2 percent. Merchandise export growth is currently losing momentum, because of sluggish activity in key trading partner countries and the (mostly indirect) effects of the depreciation of the dollar vis-à-vis the euro. For 2004, the international economic environment does not look significantly more favourable for a cyclical upturn to take hold. Low capacity utilisation and subdued sales expectations weigh on corporate investment plans. The investment-to-GDP ratio has fallen markedly since 2000, and manufacturing output may still not pick up this year. Private consumption is rising but slowly, as disposable incomes post only modest gains and the saving ratio is seen heading up. Only the construction sector shows clear signs of recovery after several years of adverse development. The extended period of slow growth, accompanied by a strong increase in labour supply, is leading to a further rise in unemployment. In 2004, the jobless rate will rise to 7.1 percent of the dependent labour force or 4.4 percent according to Eurostat definitions. Negative cyclical effects will also show up in government households, with the general government deficit edging up to 1.2 percent of GDP. The strong euro exchange rate is dampening inflation; the projected headline inflation of 1.3 percent confirms that a high degree of price stability will be maintained.Economic Outlook; Austria

Anhaltend geringes Wirtschaftswachstum. Prognose für 2003 und 2004

Das Wirtschaftswachstum wird in Österreich im Jahr 2003 nur 1,1% betragen. Damit erreicht die Rate das dritte Jahr in Folge nur etwa 1% pro Jahr. Die Aussichten für 2004 sind derzeit von großen Unsicherheiten über die Entwicklung der geopolitischen Lage und die Reaktionen der Wirtschaftspolitik geprägt. Gegenwärtig wird ein Wachstum von 1,7% angenommen. Sowohl 2003 als auch 2004 dürfte die heimische Wirtschaft damit etwa im gleichen Ausmaß expandieren wie im Durchschnitt des Euro-Raumes. Ein Konjunkturaufschwung scheint in Europa nur möglich, sofern die weltweiten Unsicherheiten wegfallen und die Rohstoffpreise merklich zurückgehen.WIFO-Konjunkturprognose; Österreich; Anhaltend geringes Wirtschaftswachstum. Prognose für 2003 und 2004

Export Recovery and Tax Reform Accelerating the Pace of Growth. Economic Outlook for 1999 and 2000

Driven by a recovery of exports and industrial output, economic growth has been gaining momentum since mid-1999. Rising private consumption continues to give firm support to the business cycle; next year, the tax reform and higher family benefits will provide additional stimulus to private household spending. Growth of real GDP is projected at 2.2 percent for the current year, accelerating to 2.8 percent in 2000. Price stability will be maintained, despite a substantial rise in oil prices. The strong advance of domestic demand is accompanied by sizeable employment gains which, together with a reinforcement of labour market policy measures, will bring down the rate of unemployment to 4.2 percent next year. General government net borrowing is set to increase to a ratio of 2½ percent of GDP.Export Recovery and Tax Reform Accelerating the Pace of Growth. Economic Outlook for 1999 and 2000

Strong Growth in Manufacturing and Sizable Employment Gains. Economic Outlook for 1998 and 1999

Strong growth of merchandise exports and of machinery and equipment investment characterize the business cycle in 1998. Austrian GDP is set to increase by 3 percent in volume. With new jobs being created to a large number and income growth resuming, private consumption should strengthen. Construction investment may lag the general recovery, due mainly to falling residential building. In 1999, the current upturn may attain a first peak, at a projected GDP growth rate of 3.2 percent. The strong momentum of output and employment gains will allow unemployment to recede in 1999. Inflation is expected to stay very low, at 1.2 (1998) and 1½ percent (1999). The current account deficit should narrow to 1.4 percent of GDP, while government net borrowing may remain broadly stable at a ratio of 2.4 percent.Strong Growth in Manufacturing and Sizable Employment Gains. Economic Outlook for 1998 and 1999

Recovery Eases Budget Problems and Accelerates Employment Growth. Economic Outlook for 1998 and 1999

As in other EU-member countries, economic recovery is gaining momentum in Austria. The economy is projected to grow by 2¾ percent in 1998 and by 3 percent in 1999. The export sector is able to maintain its competitive position and remains the mainstay of the revival in economic activity. Domestic demand is gradually emerging from the recession. Investment activity in the business sector is lively; consumption may also pick up, if fiscal policy turns less restrictive. The acceleration in economic growth will relieve the labor market and the public sector budgets; employment is expected to expand by 18,000 in 1998 and by 27,000 in 1999, and the financial balance of general government will improve to somewhat more than –2 percent of GDP by 1999. Inflation remains subdued; in 1998 and in 1999, consumer prices are forecast to increase by 1½ percent. With the trade deficit likely to fall to ATS 90 billion, the current balance is expected to stabilize at –1¾ percent of GDP.Recovery Eases Budget Problems and Accelerates Employment Growth. Economic Outlook for 1998 and 1999

Acceleration of Export-Based Growth. Economic Outlook for 1997 and 1998

In 1997 and 1998, the most important impulse for the Austrian economy will come from merchandise foreign trade. Exports are likely to benefit from the recovery of the European economies and the strength of the dollar, and will expand by 7 percent in 1997 and by 8 percent in 1998. Manufacturing output as well as investment in machinery and equipment will pick up markedly. In 1997, economic growth will accelerate to 1.6 percent in real terms. 1998 will see a recovery of domestic demand, and real GDP is expected to grow by 2 percent. The current account continues to record a serious disequilibrium. The current account deficit will rise to 2 percent of GDP as a result of soaring merchandise imports, high expenditures by Austrian tourists abroad, and high net transfers to the EU. The economic recovery in Austria has not yet been strong enough to ease the strains in the labor market. In 1998, the unemployment rate will decline only slightly, to 6.9 percent according to the traditional Austrian method, and to 4.3 percent according to Eurostat. Inflation pressures remain low; the rate of inflation is expected to be 1.4 percent in 1997 and 1.6 percent in 1998.Acceleration of Export-Based Growth. Economic Outlook for 1997 and 1998