49 research outputs found

    Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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    Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress

    Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

    Get PDF
    Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

    Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

    Get PDF
    BACKGROUND: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. METHODS: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories

    Metastases from lung adenocarcinoma within a leiomyoma: A case report

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    Background: Pulmonary adenocarcinoma rarely spreads to the gynecologic tract, and has not been fully reported to metastasize within a leiomyoma. Case: A 47 year-old woman with recurrent pulmonary adenocarcinoma was incidentally found to have a positron emission tomography (PET) avid pelvic mass at the time of restaging. She was also noted to be anemic, and reported significant vaginal bleeding. She was taken for an uncomplicated hysterectomy. She was unexpectedly found to have adenocarcinoma within a leiomyoma, consistent with metastasis from her primary pulmonary adenocarcinoma. Conclusion: We report one of the first cases of pulmonary adenocarcinoma metastatic to a uterine leiomyoma. A personal history of cancer should always be considered in patients presenting with symptomatic leiomyoma

    Epithelioid angiosarcoma arising in a uterine leiomyoma with associated elevated CA-125: A case report

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    We describe the case of a 67 year old female with longstanding uterine leiomyomas who presented with fatigue, weight loss, elevated CA-125 and an enlarging mass arising from the posterior uterine fundus. Histologic sections of the mass contained a leiomyoma with interspersed foci of malignant epithelioid cells forming anastomosing vascular channels. The neoplastic cells were diffusely positive for CD31 and FLI1, supporting the morphologic impression of epithelioid angiosarcoma. Few cases of epithelioid angiosarcoma arising within a leiomyoma have been described. In this report we discuss this association and describe its relation with elevated CA-125

    The Long and Winding Road for Breast Cancer Biomarkers to Reach Clinical Utility

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    NDER: A novel web application using annotated whole slide images for rapid improvements in human pattern recognition

    No full text
    Context: Whole-slide images (WSIs) present a rich source of information for education, training, and quality assurance. However, they are often used in a fashion similar to glass slides rather than in novel ways that leverage the advantages of WSI. We have created a pipeline to transform annotated WSI into pattern recognition training, and quality assurance web application called novel diagnostic electronic resource (NDER). Aims: Create an efficient workflow for extracting annotated WSI for use by NDER, an attractive web application that provides high-throughput training. Materials and Methods: WSI were annotated by a resident and classified into five categories. Two methods of extracting images and creating image databases were compared. Extraction Method 1: Manual extraction of still images and validation of each image by four breast pathologists. Extraction Method 2: Validation of annotated regions on the WSI by a single experienced breast pathologist and automated extraction of still images tagged by diagnosis. The extracted still images were used by NDER. NDER briefly displays an image, requires users to classify the image after time has expired, then gives users immediate feedback. Results: The NDER workflow is efficient: annotation of a WSI requires 5 min and validation by an expert pathologist requires An additional one to 2 min. The pipeline is highly automated, with only annotation and validation requiring human input. NDER effectively displays hundreds of high-quality, high-resolution images and provides immediate feedback to users during a 30 min session. Conclusions: NDER efficiently uses annotated WSI to rapidly increase pattern recognition and evaluate for diagnostic proficiency

    Reflex test reminders in required cancer synoptic templates decrease order entry error: An analysis of mismatch repair immunohistochemical orders to screen for Lynch syndrome

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    Background: Endometrial carcinoma (EC) is the most common extracolonic malignant neoplasm associated with Lynch syndrome (LS). LS is caused by autosomal dominant germline mutations in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes. Screening for LS in EC is often evaluated by loss of immunohistochemical (IHC) expression of DNA MMR enzymes MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2 (MMR IHC). In July 2013, our clinicians asked that we screen all EC in patients ≀60 for loss of MMR IHC expression. Despite this policy, several cases were not screened or screening was delayed. We implemented an informatics-based approach to ensure that all women who met criteria would have timely screening. Subjects and Methods: Reports are created in PowerPath (Sunquest Information Systems, Tucson, AZ) with custom synoptic templates. We implemented an algorithm on March 6, 2014 requiring pathologists to address MMR IHC in patients ≀60 with EC before sign out (S/O). Pathologists must answer these questions: is patient ≀60 (yes/no), if yes, follow-up questions (IHC done previously, ordered with addendum to follow, results included in report, N/A, or not ordered), if not ordered, one must explain. We analyzed cases from July 18, 2013 to August 31, 2016 preimplementation (PreImp) and postimplementation (PostImp) that met criteria. Data analysis was performed using the standard data package included with GraphPad PrismÂź 7.00 (GraphPad Software, Inc., La Jolla, CA, USA). Results: There were 147 patients who met criteria (29 PreImp and 118 PostImp). IHC was ordered in a more complete and timely fashion PostImp than PreImp. PreImp, 4/29 (13.8%) cases did not get any IHC, but PostImp, only 4/118 (3.39%) were missed (P = 0.0448). Of cases with IHC ordered, 60.0% (15/25) were ordered before or at S/O PreImp versus 91.2% (104/114) PostImp (P = 0.0004). Relative to day of S/O, the mean days of order delay were longer and more variable PreImp versus PostImp (12.9 ± 40.7 vs. -0.660 ± 1.15; P = 0.0227), with the average being before S/O PostImp. Conclusion: This algorithm ensures MMR IHC ordering in women ≀60 with EC and can be applied to similar scenarios. Ancillary tests for management are increasing, especially genetic and molecular-based methods. The burden of managing orders and results remains with the pathologist and relying on human intervention alone is ineffective. Ordering IHC before or at S/O prevents oversight and the additional work of retrospective ordering and reporting
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