The chemistry of fluorine-bearing molecules in diffuse and dense interstellar gas clouds

We present a theoretical investigation of the chemistry of fluorine-bearing molecules in diffuse and dense interstellar gas clouds. The chemistry of interstellar fluorine is qualitatively different from that of any other element, because - unlike the neutral atoms of any other element found in diffuse or dense molecular clouds - atomic fluorine undergoes an exothermic reaction with molecular hydrogen. Over a wide range of conditions attained within interstellar gas clouds, the product of that reaction - hydrogen fluoride - is predicted to be the dominant gas-phase reservoir of interstellar fluorine nuclei. Our model predicts HF column densities ~ 1.E+13 cm-2 in dark clouds and column densities as large as 1.E-11 cm-2 in diffuse interstellar gas clouds with total visual extinctions as small as 0.1 mag. Such diffuse clouds will be detectable by means of absorption line spectroscopy of the J = 1 - 0 transition at 243.2 micron using the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) and the Herschel Space Observatory (HSO). The CF+ ion is predicted to be the second most abundant fluorine-bearing molecule, with typical column densities a factor ~ 100 below those of HF; with its lowest two rotational transitions in the millimeter-wave spectral region, CF+ may be detectable from ground-based observatories. HF absorption in quasar spectra is a potential probe of molecular gas at high redshift, providing a possible bridge between the UV/optical observations capable of probing H2 in low column density systems and the radio/millimeter-wavelength observations that probe intervening molecular clouds of high extinction and large molecular fraction; at redshifts beyond ~ 0.3, HF is potentially detectable from ground-based submillimeter observatories in several atmospheric transmission windows.Comment: 34 pages, including 11 figures (10 color), accepted for publication in Ap

Climate and management interact to explain the decline of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Jasper National Park

Woodland caribou in the southern portion of Jasper National Park have declined from an estimated 435 in the mid 1970s to a population estimate of 87 in the fall of 2009. We examined the available historical information to determine why caribou have declined. We compared three main hypotheses for caribou decline in JNP: human disturbance, climate change, and wildlife management. We used historical human use statistics, climate data, and animal abundance information to weigh the evidence for these competing hypotheses over two time scales. Caribou decline could not be attributed to changes in climate over the long-term, or an increase in human use (our proxy for disturbance). Caribou decline was attributed to a combination of climate and wildlife management. Recovery of caribou in Jasper National Park will likely be contingent on managing the interaction between the predator/prey dynamic and climate change

Spatial Search and Efficiency Rates as Components of Wolf Predation Risk

Anthropogenic linear features are hypothesized to increase wolf (Canis lupus) predation risk for a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). Previous research has shown that these features are selected by wolves while searching for prey, but their effect on the net efficiency of predation, measured in kills per day, has not been addressed. We use resource selection and proportional hazards modeling to assess the spatial drivers of both search and efficiency rates of wolf predation in a multi-prey system. Topographic variation consistently affected wolf search rates and the predation efficiency of wolves while searching. However, the effects of anthropogenic footprint upon the total predation risk imposed by wolves were mediated solely by changes to wolf search rate; wolf predation efficiency generally did not change with proximity to anthropogenic linear features as previously hypothesized. Predicted models of the cumulative hazard encountered by wolves validated well with among-pack variation in kill rates, suggesting that spatial hazard models allow the scaling up of local heterogeneity to population-level dynamics. Lastly, we estimated an integrated spatial model of relative predation risk as the product of both search and efficiency rates, which captured the distinct contributions of spatial heterogeneity to each component of risk

What Can We Learn From Calf/Cow Ratios?

Trends in population growth can be monitored with data for key vital rates without requiring knowledge of abundance. Adult female survival has the highest elasticity for ungulate population dynamics, but the more variable recruitment rates can be better predictors of local variation in growth rates. Recruitment is often monitored using young adult age ratios, which are difficult to reliably interpret given the contribution of multiple vital rates to annual ratios. We show how concurrent monitoring of adult female survival and age ratios allows both retrospective estimation of empirical population growth rates and the decomposition of recruitment-specific vital rates. We demonstrate the estimation of recruitment and population growth rates for one woodland caribou population using these methods, including elasticity and life-stage simulation analysis of the relative contribution of adult female survival and recruitment rates to variation in population growth. We show, for this woodland caribou population, that adult survival and recruitment rates are nearly equivalent drivers of population growth rates. We recommend the concurrent monitoring of adult female survival to reliably interpret age ratios when managing caribou and other ungulates

The Atomic-to-Molecular Transition in Galaxies. III. A New Method for Determining the Molecular Content of Primordial and Dusty Clouds

Understanding the molecular content of galaxies is a critical problem in star formation and galactic evolution. Here we present a new method, based on a Stromgren-type analysis, to calculate the amount of HI that surrounds a molecular cloud irradiated by an isotropic radiation field. We consider both planar and spherical clouds, and H_2 formation either in the gas phase or catalyzed by dust grains. Under the assumption that the transition from atomic to molecular gas is sharp, our method gives the solution without any reference to the photodissociation cross section. We test our results for the planar case against those of a PDR code, and find typical accuracies of about 10%. Our results are also consistent with the scaling relations found in Paper I of this series, but they apply to a wider range of physical conditions. We present simple, accurate analytic fits to our results that are suitable for comparison to observations and to implementation in numerical and semi-analytic models.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, accepted to Ap

The Effect of Fire on Spatial Separation Between Wolves and Caribou

Fire management is an important conservation tool in Canada’s national parks. Fires can benefit some species, while others may be negatively impacted. We used GPS and VHF collar data for 47 wolves from 12 separate packs and 153 caribou from 5 separate herds, and resource selection analysis to model the effects of fire on these species’ habitat and potential interactions. Resource selection modeling showed that wolves select for burned areas and areas close to burns, presumably due to the presence of primary prey (i.e., elk and moose), while caribou avoid burns. Fire reduced the amount of high quality caribou habitat (a direct effect), but also increased the probability of wolf-caribou overlap (an indirect effect). We delineated a spatial index of caribou “safe zones” (areas of low overlap with wolves), and found a positive relationship between the proportion of a herd’s home range represented by “safe zone” in winter and population size (P = 0.10, n=4). While currently-planned prescribed fires in Banff and Jasper reduced the amount of quality caribou habitat by up to 4%, they reduced the area of “safe zones” by up to 7%, varying by herd, location, and season. We suggest that conservation managers should account for the indirect, predator-mediated impacts of fire on caribou in addition to direct effects of habitat loss