Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations

What shocks account for the business cycle frequency and long run movements of output and prices? This paper addresses this question using the identifying assumption that only supply shocks, such as shocks to technology, oil prices, and labor supply affect output in the long run. Real and monetary aggregate demand shocks can affect output, but only in the short run. This assumption sufficiently restricts the reduced form of key macroeconomic variables to allow estimation of the shocks and their effect on output and price at all frequencies. Aggregate demand shocks account for about twenty to thirty percent of output fluctuations at business cycle frequencies. Technological shocks account for about one-quarter of cyclical fluctuations, and about one-third of output's variance at low frequencies. Shocks to oil prices are important in explaining episodes in the 1970's and 1980's. Shocks that permanently affect labor input account for the balance of fluctuations in output, namely, about half of its variance at all frequencies.

Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations

What shocks account for the business cycle frequency and long run movements of output and prices? This paper addresses this question using the identifying assumption that only supply shocks, such as shocks to technology, oil prices, and labor supply affect output in the long run. Real and monetary aggregate demand shocks can affect output, but only in the short run. This assumption sufficiently restricts the reduced form of key macroeconomic variables to allow estimation of the shocks and their effect on output and price at all frequencies. Aggregate demand shocks account for about twenty to thirty percent of output fluctuations at business cycle frequencies. Technological shocks account for about one-quarter of cyclical fluctuations, and about one-third of output’s variance at low frequencies. Shocks to oil prices are important in explaining episodes in the 1970’s and 1980’s. Shocks that permanently affect labor output account for the balance of fluctuations in output, namely, about half of its variance at all frequencies

Gender, education, and the labour market in Kinshasa

Abstract This paper uses data from a 2004 survey to study the labour market in Kinshasa, capital of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In a context characterized by protracted poor economic performance going back to the mid-1970s and especially severe economic problems in the 1990s, women have become increasingly involved in the labour market and educational attainment of both men and women has increased. The paper examines labour market outcomes, with emphasis on differences by gender and education. Using descriptive and multivariate analyses, we examine labour force participation and labour force status (employed, modern sector; employed, informal sector; unemployed; out of the labour force), first by age and gender and then by education and gender. Our results highlight the difficulties well-educated men and women confront in finding employment in the modern sector, as well as gender differences in favour of males in access to employment in the modern sector.Keywords: Labour market; gender; education; modern sector; informal sector; employment; unemploymentResumé Cet article se base sur les données d’une enquête effectuée en 2004, portant sur le marché du travail dans la ville de Kinshasa, capitale de la République Démocratique du Congo. Dans un contexte caractérisé par une longue période de récession remontant au milieu des années 1970 et de graves problèmes économiques depuis les années 1990, les femmes occupent une part de plus en plus importante sur le marché du travail, tandis que le niveau global d’instruction des hommes et des femmes ne cesse de s’améliorer. Cet article met en lumière les caractéristiques du marché du travail dans la ville de Kinshasa, en mettant un accent particulier sur les différences selon le sexe et le niveau d’instruction. A l’aide d’analyses descriptives et multivariées, nous examinons l’activité économique et le statut sur le marché du travail (employé dans le secteur formel, employé dans le secteur informel, chômeur, inactif), d’abord selon l’âge et le sexe et ensuite selon le niveau d’instruction et le sexe. Nos résultats mettent en évidence les difficultés auxquelles sont confrontés les hommes et les femmes les plus instruits à la recherche d’un emploi dans le secteur formel, aussi bien que l’avantage qu’ont les hommes sur les femmes d’accéder à un emploi dans le secteur formel

Allosteric modulation of beta1 integrin function induces lung repair in animal model of emphysema.

Emphysema is a progressive lung disease characterised by loss of lung parenchyma with associated functional changes including decreased tissue elastance. Here we report beta1 integrin is a novel target for tissue repair and regeneration in emphysema. We show a single dose of a monoclonal antibody against beta1 integrin induced both functional and structural reversal of elastase-induced lung injury in vivo, and we found that similar matrix remodelling changes occurred in human lung tissue. We also identified a potential mechanism of action as this allosteric modulation of beta1 integrin inhibited elastase-induced caspase activation, F-actin aggregate formation and changes in cellular ATP levels. This was accompanied by maintenance of beta1?integrin levels and inhibition of caveolin-1 phosphorylation. We propose that allosteric modulation of beta1 integrin-mediated mechanosensing prevents cell death associated with lung injury and progressive emphysema, thus allowing cells to survive and for repair and regeneration to ensue

Model-based Cognitive Neuroscience: Multifield Mechanistic Integration in Practice

Autonomist accounts of cognitive science suggest that cognitive model building and theory construction (can or should) proceed independently of findings in neuroscience. Common functionalist justifications of autonomy rely on there being relatively few constraints between neural structure and cognitive function (e.g., Weiskopf, 2011). In contrast, an integrative mechanistic perspective stresses the mutual constraining of structure and function (e.g., Piccinini & Craver, 2011; Povich, 2015). In this paper, I show how model-based cognitive neuroscience (MBCN) epitomizes the integrative mechanistic perspective and concentrates the most revolutionary elements of the cognitive neuroscience revolution (Boone & Piccinini, 2016). I also show how the prominent subset account of functional realization supports the integrative mechanistic perspective I take on MBCN and use it to clarify the intralevel and interlevel components of integration

Collapse to Black Holes in Brans-Dicke Theory: I. Horizon Boundary Conditions for Dynamical Spacetimes

We present a new numerical code that evolves a spherically symmetric configuration of collisionless matter in the Brans-Dicke theory of gravitation. In this theory the spacetime is dynamical even in spherical symmetry, where it can contain gravitational radiation. Our code is capable of accurately tracking collapse to a black hole in a dynamical spacetime arbitrarily far into the future, without encountering either coordinate pathologies or spacetime singularities. This is accomplished by truncating the spacetime at a spherical surface inside the apparent horizon, and subsequently solving the evolution and constraint equations only in the exterior region. We use our code to address a number of long-standing theoretical questions about collapse to black holes in Brans-Dicke theory.Comment: 46 pages including figures, uuencoded gz-compressed postscript, Submitted to Phys Rev

Lattice dynamics reveals a local symmetry breaking in the emergent dipole phase of PbTe

Local symmetry breaking in complex materials is emerging as an important contributor to materials properties but is inherently difficult to study. Here we follow up an earlier structural observation of such a local symmetry broken phase in the technologically important compound PbTe with a study of the lattice dynamics using inelastic neutron scattering (INS). We show that the lattice dynamics are responsive to the local symmetry broken phase, giving key insights in the behavior of PbTe, but also revealing INS as a powerful tool for studying local structure. The new result is the observation of the unexpected appearance on warming of a new zone center phonon branch in PbTe. In a harmonic solid the number of phonon branches is strictly determined by the contents and symmetry of the unit cell. The appearance of the new mode indicates a crossover to a dynamic lower symmetry structure with increasing temperature. No structural transition is seen crystallographically but the appearance of the new mode in inelastic neutron scattering coincides with the observation of local Pb off-centering dipoles observed in the local structure. The observation resembles relaxor ferroelectricity but since there are no inhomogeneous dopants in pure PbTe this anomalous behavior is an intrinsic response of the system. We call such an appearance of dipoles out of a non-dipolar ground-state "emphanisis" meaning the appearance out of nothing. It cannot be explained within the framework of conventional phase transition theories such as soft-mode theory and challenges our basic understanding of the physics of materials

Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations

What shocks account for the business cycle frequency and long run movements of output and prices? This paper addresses this question using the identifying assumption that only supply shocks, such as shocks to technology, oil prices, and labor supply affect output in the long run. Real and monetary aggregate demand shocks can affect output, but only in the short run. This assumption sufficiently restricts the reduced form of key macroeconomic variables to allow estimation of the shocks and their effect on output and price at all frequencies. Aggregate demand shocks account for about twenty to thirty percent of output fluctuations at business cycle frequencies. Technological shocks account for about one-quarter of cyclical fluctuations, and about one-third of output's variance at low frequencies. Shocks to oil prices are important in explaining episodes in the 1970's and 1980's. Shocks that permanently affect labor output account for the balance of fluctuations in output, namely, about half of its variance at all frequencies.Business cycle, supply shocks, inflation, output, demand shocks