Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The Power of Gene Technologies: 1001 Ways to Create a Cell Model

Modern society faces many biomedical challenges that require urgent solutions. Two of the most important include the elucidation of mechanisms of socially significant diseases and the development of prospective drug treatments for these diseases. Experimental cell models are a convenient tool for addressing many of these problems. The power of cell models is further enhanced when combined with gene technologies, which allows the examination of even more subtle changes within the structure of the genome and permits testing of proteins in a native environment. The list and possibilities of these recently emerging technologies are truly colossal, which requires a rethink of a number of approaches for obtaining experimental cell models. In this review, we analyze the possibilities and limitations of promising gene technologies for obtaining cell models, and also give recommendations on the development and creation of relevant models. In our opinion, this review will be useful for novice cell biologists, as it provides some reference points in the rapidly growing universe of gene and cell technologies

A Novel Cre/lox71-Based System for Inducible Expression of Recombinant Proteins and Genome Editing

In this study, we developed a novel Cre/lox71-based system for the controlled transient expression of target genes. We used the bacteriophage P1 Cre recombinase, which harbors a short, highly specific DNA-binding site and does not have endogenous binding sites within mouse or human genomes. Fusing the catalytically inactive form of Cre recombinase and the VP64 transactivation domain (VP16 tetramer), we constructed the artificial transcription factor Cre-VP64. This transcription factor binds to the lox71 sites within the promoter region of the target gene and, therefore, upregulates its expression. We tested the Cre-VP64/lox71 system for the controlled expression of several genes, including growth factors and the genome editor CRISPR/Cas9, and obtained superior efficiency in the regulation of transgene expression, achieving a high expression level upon induction together with low basal activity. This system or its modified forms can be suggested as a novel effective tool for the transitory controlled expression of target genes for functional genomic studies, as well as for gene therapy approaches

MSC Secretome as a Promising Tool for Neuroprotection and Neuroregeneration in a Model of Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Multipotent mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) are considered to be critical contributors to injured tissue repair and regeneration, and MSC-based therapeutic approaches have been applied to many peripheral and central neurologic disorders. It has been demonstrated that the beneficial effects of MSC are mainly mediated by the components of their secretome. In the current study, we have explored the neuroprotective potential of the MSC secretome in a rat model of intracerebral hemorrhage and shown that a 10-fold concentrated secretome of human MSC and its combination with the brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) provided a better survival and neurological outcome of rats within 14 days of intracerebral hemorrhage compared to the negative (non-treated) and positive (BDNF) control groups. We found that it was due to the ability of MSC secretome to stimulate neuron survival under conditions of glutamate-induced neurotoxicity. However, the lesion volume did not shrink in these rats, and this also correlated with prominent microglia activation. We hypothesize that this could be caused by the species-specificity of the used MSC secretome and provide evidence to confirm this. Thus, we have found that allogenic rat MSC secretome was more effective than xenogenic human MSC secretome in the rat intracerebral hemorrhage model: it reduced the volume of the lesion and promoted excellent survival and neurological outcome of the treated rats

Alpha1A- and Beta3-Adrenoceptors Interplay in Adipose Multipotent Mesenchymal Stromal Cells: A Novel Mechanism of Obesity-Driven Hypertension

Hypertension is a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, such as strokes and myocardial infarctions. Nearly 70% of hypertension onsets in adults can be attributed to obesity, primarily due to sympathetic overdrive and the dysregulated renin-angiotensin system. Sympathetic overdrive increases vasoconstriction via α1-adrenoceptor activation on vascular cells. Despite the fact that a sympathetic outflow increases in individuals with obesity, as a rule, there is a cohort of patients with obesity who do not develop hypertension. In this study, we investigated how adrenoceptors’ expression and functioning in adipose tissue are affected by obesity-driven hypertension. Here, we demonstrated that α1A is a predominant isoform of α1-adrenoceptors expressed in the adipose tissue of patients with obesity, specifically by multipotent mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs). These cells respond to prolonged exposure to noradrenaline in the model of sympathetic overdrive through the elevation of α1A-adrenoceptor expression and signaling. The extent of MSCs’ response to noradrenaline correlates with a patient’s arterial hypertension. scRNAseq analysis revealed that in the model of sympathetic overdrive, the subpopulation of MSCs with contractile phenotype expanded significantly. Elevated α1A-adrenoceptor expression is triggered specifically by beta3-adrenoceptors. These data define a novel pathophysiological mechanism of obesity-driven hypertension by which noradrenaline targets MSCs to increase microvessel constrictor responsivity

Urokinase-Type Plasminogen Activator Enhances the Neuroprotective Activity of Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor in a Model of Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is a classic neuroprotective and pro-regenerative factor in peripheral and central nervous tissue. Its ability to stimulate the restoration of damaged nerve and brain tissue after ischemic stroke and intraventricular hemorrhage has been demonstrated. However, the current concept of regeneration allows us to assert that one factor, even if essential, cannot be the sole contributor to this complex biological process. We have previously shown that urokinase-type plasminogen activator (uPA) complements BDNF activity and stimulates restoration of nervous tissue. Using a model of intracerebral hemorrhage in rats, we investigated the neurotrophic and neuroprotective effect of BDNF combined with uPA. The local simultaneous administration of BDNF and uPA provided effective neuroprotection of brain tissue after intracerebral hemorrhage, promoted survival of experimental animals and their neurological recovery, and decreased lesion volume. The study of cellular mechanisms of the observed neurotrophic effect of BDNF and uPA combination revealed both known mechanisms (neuronal survival and neurite growth) and new ones (microglial activation) that had not been shown for BDNF and uPA. Our findings support the concept of using combinations of biological factors with diverse but complementary mechanisms of action as a promising regenerative approach

Novel Immortalized Human Multipotent Mesenchymal Stromal Cell Line for Studying Hormonal Signaling

Multipotent mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) integrate hormone and neuromediator signaling to coordinate tissue homeostasis, tissue renewal and regeneration. To facilitate the investigation of MSC biology, stable immortalized cell lines are created (e.g., commercially available ASC52telo). However, the ASC52telo cell line has an impaired adipogenic ability and a depressed response to hormones, including 5-HT, GABA, glutamate, noradrenaline, PTH and insulin compared to primary cells. This markedly reduces the potential of the ASC52telo cell line in studying the mechanisms of hormonal control of MSC’s physiology. Here, we have established a novel immortalized culture of adipose tissue-derived MSCs via forced telomerase expression after lentiviral transduction. These immortalized cell cultures demonstrate high proliferative potential (up to 40 passages), delayed senescence, as well as preserved primary culture-like functional activity (sensitivity to hormones, ability to hormonal sensitization and differentiation) and immunophenotype up to 17–26 passages. Meanwhile, primary adipose tissue-derived MSCs usually irreversibly lose their properties by 8–10 passages. Observed characteristics of reported immortalized human MSC cultures make them a feasible model for studying molecular mechanisms, which regulate the functional activities of these cells, especially when primary cultures or commercially available cell lines are not appropriate

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.FindingsThe leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.InterpretationLong-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere