Possibilities of River Water Temperature Reconstruction Using Statistical Models in the Context of Long-Term Thermal Regime Changes Assessment

Water temperature in rivers is the key property determining the biotic and abiotic processes occurring in these ecosystems. In many regions of the world, the significant lack of measurement data is a serious problem. This paper presents reconstruction of water temperature for selected Polish rivers with monitoring discontinued in the period 2015–2020. Information regarding air temperature and water temperature in lakes provided the basis for the comparison of three models: multiple linear regression, random forest regression, and multilayer perceptron network. The results show that the best reconstruction results were obtained with a multilayer perceptron network model based on water temperatures in the lake and air temperatures from three meteorological stations. The average values of mean error, root mean square error and standard error were for the rivers in Poland: 1.52 °C, 5.03%, and 0.47 °C. The course of mean yearly water temperature in the years 1987–2020 showed a statistically significant increase from 0.18 to 0.49 °C per decade. The results show that the largest increases occurred in June, August, September, November, and December

Sustainable Water Management in Agriculture—The Impact of Drainage Water Management on Groundwater Table Dynamics and Subsurface Outflow

The paper presents the results of the effects of control drainage (CD) on the groundwater table and subsurface outflow in Central Poland. The hydrologic model DRAINMOD was used to simulate soil water balance with drain spacing of 7 and 14 m, different initial groundwater Table 40, 60 and 80 cm b.s.l., and dates at the beginning of control drainage of 1 March, 15 March, 1 April, and 15 April. The CD restricts flow at the drain outlet to maintain a water table during the growing season. Simulations were made for the periods from March to September for the years 2014, 2017, and 2018, which were average, wet, and dry, respectively. The simulations showed a significant influence of the initial groundwater tables and date blocking the outflow from the drainage network on the obtained results. In the conditions of central Poland, the use of CD is rational only when it is started between 1 and 15 March. In this case, the groundwater table can be increased from 10 to 33 cm (7 m spacing) and from 10 to 41 cm (14 m spacing) in relation to the conventional system (free drainage—FD). In the case of blocking the outflow on 1 March, the reduction is about 80% on average in the period from March to September. With a delay in blocking the outflow, the impact of CDs decreases and ranges from 8% to 50%. Studies have shown that the proper use of the drainage network infrastructure complies with the idea of sustainable development, as it allows efficient water management, by reduction of the outflow and, thus, nitrates from agricultural areas. Furthermore, CD solutions can contribute to mitigating the effects of climate change on agriculture by reducing drought and flood risk

Directions and Extent of Flows Changes in Warta River Basin (Poland) in the Context of the Efficiency of Run-of-River Hydropower Plants and the Perspectives for Their Future Development

This paper presents changes in the flow of 14 rivers located in the Warta River basin, recorded from 1951 to 2020. The Warta is the third-longest river in Poland. Unfortunately, the Warta River catchment area is one of the most water-scarce regions. It hosts about 150 hydropower plants with a capacity of up to 5 kW. The catchment areas of the 14 smaller rivers selected for the study differ in location, size, land cover structure and geological structure. The paper is the first study of this type with respect to both the number of analyzed catchments, the length of the sampling series and the number of analyzed flow characteristics in this part of Europe. The analysis of changes in the river flows was performed with reference to low minimum, mean and maximum monthly, seasonal and annual flows. Particular attention was paid to 1, 3, 7, 30 and 90-day low flows and durations of the flows between Q50 and Q90%. In addition, the duration of flows between Q50 and Q90% were analysed. Analysis of the direction and extent of particular flow types was performed by multitemporal analysis using the Mann–Kendall (MK) and Sen (S) tests. The analysis of multiannual flow sequences from the years 1951–2020 showed that the changes varied over the time periods and catchments. The most significant changes occurred in the low flows, while the least significant changes occurred in the high flows. From the point of view of the operation of the hydropower sector, these changes may be unfavourable and result in a reduction in the efficiency of run-of-river hydropower plants. It was established that local factors play a dominant role in the shaping of river flows in both positive and negative terms, for the efficiency of the hydropower plants

Trends of Changes in Minimum Lake Water Temperature in Poland

Water temperature in lakes is their basic property that determines many processes. Changes in average values are thoroughly investigated using a long-term approach. Knowledge of extreme situations such as temperature minimums is still insufficient. This paper analyses changes in the minimum temperature in 10 lakes in Poland in the period 1972–2021. The obtained results show variability over the course of the parameter, both at the annual and monthly scale. In the first case, half of the analysed set showed statistically significant increasing trends (on average 0.10 °C per decade). In the latter case, the greatest changes occurred in the months of the warm half-year (on average 0.57 °C per decade). The reported situation is caused by the individual conditions of particular lakes, i.e., their location, morphometric parameters, or the dynamics of the occurrence of ice phenomena. A successive increase in the minimum temperature in lakes has its consequences for biotic and abiotic processes. Exceeding specific thresholds results in the evident transformation of these ecosystems

Monitoring of the Technical Condition and Optimisation of the Functioning of Small Hydraulic Structures in Poland: The Case Study of the Oświecim Weir

Successively conducted monitoring and inspections allow for the detection of emerging issues and their elimination. The objective of this study is the analysis of the administrative procedures related to the monitoring of the technical condition of small hydraulic structures in Poland. The case study of the Oświecim Weir on the Prosna River presents the parameters subject to assessment and further activities aimed at the elimination of the detected defects. The obtained results showed damage to its concrete structures, including cracks and cavities. The undertaken activities related to the complete remodelling of the Oświecim Weir and the incurred costs generally result from the environmental conditions (water flows in the Prosna River), directly causing the necessity for the stabilisation of water conditions in the area. In the context of the observed climatic changes, the problem is faced by more and more regions around the globe. The proper technical condition of hydraulic structures, resulting from diligent monitoring, provides the basis for the mitigation of this unfavourable situation

Use of Landsat Satellite Images in the Assessment of the Variability in Ice Cover on Polish Lakes

Despite several decades of observations of ice cover in Polish lakes, researchers have not broadly applied satellite images to date. This paper presents a temporal and spatial analysis of the variability in the occurrence of ice cover on lakes in the Drawskie Lakeland in the hydrological years 1984–2022 based on satellite data from Landsat missions 4, 5, 7, 8, and 9. The range of occurrence of ice cover was determined based on the value of the Normalised Difference Snow Index (NDSI) and blue spectral band (ρλblue). The determination of ice cover extent adopted ρλblue  values from 0.033 to 0.120 as the threshold values. The analysis covered 67 lakes with an area from 0.07 to 18.71 km2. A total of 53 images were analysed, 14 and 39 out of which showed full and partial ice cover, respectively. The cluster analysis permitted the designation of two groups of lakes characterised by an approximate range of ice cover. The obtained results were analysed in the context of the morphometric parameters of the lakes. It was evidenced that the range of the ice cover on lakes is determined by the surface area of the lakes; their mean and maximum depth, volume, length, and width; and the height of the location above sea level. The results of analyses of the spatial range of ice cover in subsequent scenes allowed for the preparation of maps of probability of ice cover occurrence that permit the complete determination of its variability within each of the lakes. Monitoring of the spatial variability in ice cover within individual lakes as well as in reference to lakes not subject to traditional observations offers new research possibilities in many scientific disciplines focused on these ecosystems

The increasing of maximum lake water temperature in lowland lakes of central Europe: case study of the Polish Lakeland

The paper presents the results of time-related changes in maximum temperatures in lakes. The analysis was carried out on the basis of 9 lakes located in the northern part of Poland. The analysis was based on daily water and air temperatures in the period 1971–2015. Mann–Kendall's and Sen's tests were applied to determine the directions and rates of change of maximum air and water temperatures. The average increase of maximum water temperature in analysed lakes was found to be 0.39 °C dec–1, while the warming trend of the maximum air temperature was 0.48 °C dec–1. Cluster analysis (CA) was used to group lakes characterised by similar changes of maximum water temperature. The first group included five lakes in which the values of the maximum temperature trends were 0.41 °C dec–1. In the second cluster the average value of maximum water temperature increase was smaller than in the first cluster (0.36 °C dec–1). Comparing the results of cluster analysis with morphometric data show that in the first cluster lakes are having a greater average depth, maximum depth and water transparency in comparison to the lakes of the second cluster.The study showed significant changes in the maximum annual water temperatures in post-glacial lakes located in Poland in the years 1971-2015. The highest rate of increase in monthly maximum water temperature was recorded in April and the lowest in January and February. The value of maximum water temperature trends was lower than annual air temperature trends

Monitoring of the Technical Condition and Optimisation of the Functioning of Small Hydraulic Structures in Poland: The Case Study of the Oświecim Weir

Successively conducted monitoring and inspections allow for the detection of emerging issues and their elimination. The objective of this study is the analysis of the administrative procedures related to the monitoring of the technical condition of small hydraulic structures in Poland. The case study of the Oświecim Weir on the Prosna River presents the parameters subject to assessment and further activities aimed at the elimination of the detected defects. The obtained results showed damage to its concrete structures, including cracks and cavities. The undertaken activities related to the complete remodelling of the Oświecim Weir and the incurred costs generally result from the environmental conditions (water flows in the Prosna River), directly causing the necessity for the stabilisation of water conditions in the area. In the context of the observed climatic changes, the problem is faced by more and more regions around the globe. The proper technical condition of hydraulic structures, resulting from diligent monitoring, provides the basis for the mitigation of this unfavourable situation

Trends of Changes in Minimum Lake Water Temperature in Poland

Water temperature in lakes is their basic property that determines many processes. Changes in average values are thoroughly investigated using a long-term approach. Knowledge of extreme situations such as temperature minimums is still insufficient. This paper analyses changes in the minimum temperature in 10 lakes in Poland in the period 1972–2021. The obtained results show variability over the course of the parameter, both at the annual and monthly scale. In the first case, half of the analysed set showed statistically significant increasing trends (on average 0.10 °C per decade). In the latter case, the greatest changes occurred in the months of the warm half-year (on average 0.57 °C per decade). The reported situation is caused by the individual conditions of particular lakes, i.e., their location, morphometric parameters, or the dynamics of the occurrence of ice phenomena. A successive increase in the minimum temperature in lakes has its consequences for biotic and abiotic processes. Exceeding specific thresholds results in the evident transformation of these ecosystems

Characteristics of daily water temperature fluctuations in lake kierskie (West Poland)

The paper presents the dynamics of daily water temperature fluctuations in Lake Kierskie (West Poland) and determines the effect of air temperatures and wind speed on the variability of the parameter (water temperature). The analysis was based on hourly water temperature values from the period from May 2012 to January 2018. The data analysis permitted the description of the thermal regime of waters in the lake in the hourly cycle in reference to each month, and designation of months characterised by the highest and lowest stability of water temperatures. More than half of the analysed days was characterised by a change in water temperature not exceeding 1°C. The course of water temperature showed strongly positive correlations with air temperature, and weak correlations with wind speed. Water temperatures in the lake were correlated the strongest with air temperatures with a 24 h time step