A comparison of population viability measures

The viability of populations can be quantified with several measures, such as the probability of extinction, the mean time to extinction, or the population size. While conservation management decisions can be based on these measures, it has not yet been explored systematically if different viability measures rank species and scenarios similarly and if one viability measure can be converted into another to compare studies. To address this challenge, we conducted a quantitative comparison of eight viability measures based on the simulated population dynamics of more than 4500 virtual species. We compared (a) the ranking of scenarios based on different viability measures, (b) assessed direct correlations between the measures, and (c) explored if parameters in the simulation models can alter the relationship between pairs of viability measures. We found that viability measures ranked species similarly. Despite this, direct correlations between the different measures were often weak and could not be generalized. This can be explained by the loss of information due to the aggregation of raw data into a single number, the effect of model parameters on the relationship between viability measures, and because distributions, such as the probability of extinction over time, cannot be ranked objectively. Similar scenario rankings by different viability measures show that the choice of the viability metric does in many cases not alter which population is regarded more viable or which management option is the best. However, the more two scenarios or populations differ, the more likely it becomes that different measures produce different rankings. We thus recommend that PVA studies publish raw simulation data, which not only describes all risks and opportunities to the reader but also facilitates meta-analyses of PVA studies

Moisture-driven shift in the climate sensitivity of white spruce xylem anatomical traits is coupled to large-scale oscillation patterns across northern treeline in northwest North America

Tree growth at northern treelines is generally temperature-limited due to cold and short growing seasons. However, temperature-induced drought stress was repeatedly reported for certain regions of the boreal forest in northwestern North America, provoked by a significant increase in temperature and possibly reinforced by a regime shift of the pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The aim of this study is to better understand physiological growth reactions of white spruce, a dominant species of the North American boreal forest, to PDO regime shifts using quantitative wood anatomy and traditional tree-ring width (TRW) analysis. We investigated white spruce growth at latitudinal treeline across a >1,000\ua0km gradient in northwestern North America. Functionally important xylem anatomical traits (lumen area, cell-wall thickness, cell number) and TRW were correlated with the drought-sensitive standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index of the growing season. Correlations were computed separately for complete phases of the PDO in the 20th century, representing alternating warm/dry (1925-1946), cool/wet (1947-1976) and again warm/dry (1977-1998) climate regimes. Xylem anatomical traits revealed water-limiting conditions in both warm/dry PDO regimes, while no or spatially contrasting associations were found for the cool/wet regime, indicating a moisture-driven shift in growth-limiting factors between PDO periods. TRW reflected only the last shift of 1976/1977, suggesting different climate thresholds and a higher sensitivity to moisture availability of xylem anatomical traits compared to TRW. This high sensitivity of xylem anatomical traits permits to identify first signs of moisture-driven growth in treeline white spruce at an early stage, suggesting quantitative wood anatomy being a powerful tool to study climate change effects in the northwestern North American treeline ecotone. Projected temperature increase might challenge growth performance of white spruce as a key component of the North American boreal forest biome in the future, when drier conditions are likely to occur with higher frequency and intensity

Higher Winter-Spring Temperature and Winter-Spring/Summer Moisture Availability Increase Scots Pine Growth on Coastal Dune Microsites Around the South Baltic Sea

Coastal sand dunes near the Baltic Sea are a dynamic environment marking the boundary between land and sea and oftentimes covered by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests. Complex climate-environmental interactions characterize these ecosystems and largely determine the productivity and state of these coastal forests. In the face of future climate change, understanding interactions between coastal tree growth and climate variability is important to promote sustainable coastal forests. In this study, we assessed the effect of microsite conditions on tree growth and the temporal and spatial variability of the relationship between climate and Scots pine growth at nine coastal sand dune sites located around the south Baltic Sea. At each site, we studied the growth of Scots pine growing at microsites located at the ridge and bottom of a dune and built a network of 18 ring-width and 18 latewood blue intensity chronologies. Across this network, we found that microsite has a minor influence on ring-width variability, basal area increment, latewood blue intensity, and climate sensitivity. However, at the local scale, microsite effects turned out to be important for growth and climate sensitivity at some sites. Correlation analysis indicated that the strength and direction of climate-growth responses for the ring-width and blue intensity chronologies were similar for climate variables over the 1903–2016 period. A strong and positive relationship between ring-width and latewood blue intensity chronologies with winter-spring temperature was detected at local and regional scales. We identified a relatively strong, positive influence of winter-spring/summer moisture availability on both tree-ring proxies. When climate-growth responses between two intervals (1903–1959, 1960–2016) were compared, the strength of growth responses to temperature and moisture availability for both proxies varied. More specifically, for the ring-width network, we identified decreasing temperature-growth responses, which is in contrast to the latewood blue intensity network, where we documented decreasing and increasing temperature-growth relationships in the north and south respectively. We conclude that coastal Scots pine forests are primarily limited by winter-spring temperature and winterspring/summer drought despite differing microsite conditions.We detected some spatial and temporal variability in climate-growth relationships that warrant further investigation

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km² resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e., offset) between in-situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km² pixels (summarized from 8500 unique temperature sensors) across all the world’s major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in-situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world\u27s major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (−0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

Global maps of soil temperature.

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

Individual white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) growth limitations at treelines in Alaska

White spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) is one of the most common conifers in Alaska and various treelines mark the species distribution range. Because treelines positions are driven by climate and because climate change is estimated to be strongest in northern latitudes, treeline shifts appear likely. However, species range shifts depend on various species parameters, probably most importantly on phenotypic plasticity, genetic adaptation and dispersal. Due to their long generation cycles and their immobility, trees evolved to endure a wide variety of climatic conditions. In most locations, interannual climate variability is larger than the expected climate change until 2100. Thus treeline position is typically thought of as the integrated effect of multiple years and to lag behind gradual climate change by several decades. Past dendrochronological studies revealed that growth of white spruce in Alaska can be limited by several climatic variables, in particular water stress and low temperatures. Depending on how the intensity of climate warming, this could result in a leading range edge at treelines limited by low temperatures and trailing treelines where soil moisture is or becomes most limiting. Climate-growth correlations are the dendrochronological version of reaction norms and describe the relationship between an environmental variable and traits like tree-ring parameters (e.g. ring width, wood density, wood anatomy). These correlations can be used to explore potential effects of climate change on a target species. However, it is known that individuals differ with respect to multiple variables like size, age, microsite conditions, competition status or their genome. Such individual differences could be important because they can modulate climate-growth relationships and consequently also range shifts and growth trends. Removing individual differences by averaging tree-ring parameters of many individuals into site chronologies could be an oversimplification that might bias estimates of future white spruce performance. Population dynamics that emerge from the interactions of individuals (e.g. competition) and the range of reactions to the same environmental drivers can only be studied via individual tree analyses. Consequently, this thesis focuses on factors that might alter individual white spruce’ climate sensitivity and methods to assess such effects. In particular, the research articles included explore three topics: 1. First, clones were identified via microsatellites and high-frequency climate signals of clones were compared to that of non-clonal individuals. Clonal and non-clonal individuals showed similar high-frequency climate signals which allows to use clonal and non-clonal individuals to construct mean site chronologies. However, clones were more frequently found under the harsher environmental conditions at the treelines which could be of interest for the species survival strategy at alpine treelines and is further explored in the associated RESPONSE project A5 by David Würth. 2. In the second article, methods for the exploration and visualization of individual-tree differences in climate sensitivity are described. These methods represent a toolbox to explore causes for the variety of different climate sensitivities found in individual trees at the same site. Though, overlaying gradients of multiple factors like temperature, tree density and/or tree height can make it difficult to attribute a single cause to the range of reaction norms (climate growth correlations). 3. Lastly, the third article attempts to disentangle the effect of age and size on climate-growth correlations. Multiple past studies found that trees of different Ages responded differently to climatic drivers. In contrast, other studies found that trees do not age like many other organisms. Age and size of a trees are roughly correlated, though there are large differences in the growth rate of trees, which can lead to smaller trees that are older than taller trees. Consequently, age is an imperfect Proxy for size and in contrast to age, size has been shown to affect wood anatomy and thus tree physiology. The article compares two tree-age methods and one tree-size method based on cumulative ring width. In line with previous research on aging and Wood anatomy, tree size appeared to be the best predictor to explain ontogenetic changes in white spruce’ climate sensitivity. In particular, tallest trees exhibited strongest correlations with water stress in previous year July. In conclusion, this thesis is about factors that can alter climate-growth relationships (reaction norms) of white spruce. The results emphasize that interactions between climate variables and other factors like tree size or competition status are important for estimates of future tree growth and potential treeline shifts. In line with previous studies on white spruce in Alaska, the results of this thesis underline the importance of water stress for white spruce. Individuals that are taller and that have more competitors for water appear to be most susceptible to the potentially drier future climate in Alaska. While tree ring based growth trends estimates of white spruce are difficult to derive due to multiple overlaying low frequency (>10 years) signals, all investigated treeline sites showed highest growth at the treeline edge. This could indicate expanding range edges. However, a potential bottleneck for treeline advances and retreats could be seedling establishment, which should be explored in more detail in the future.Die Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit dendroökologischen Analysen der Weißfichte in Alaska. Insbesondere wird auf Effekte eingegangen, welche zu unterschiedlichen Klimasensitivitäten verschiedener Individuen führen. Beispielsweise wird versucht die Modulation der Klimasensitivität durch Alter und Größe der Bäume zu unterscheiden

Direct and Indirect Effects of Environmental Limitations on White Spruce Xylem Anatomy at Treeline

Treeline ecosystems are of great scientific interest to study the effects of limiting environmental conditions on tree growth. However, tree growth is multidimensional, with complex interactions between height and radial growth. In this study, we aimed to disentangle effects of height and climate on xylem anatomy of white spruce [Picea glauca (Moench) Voss] at three treeline sites in Alaska; i.e., one warm and drought-limited, and two cold, temperature-limited. To analyze general growth differences between trees from different sites, we used data on annual ring width, diameter at breast height (DBH), and tree height. A representative subset of the samples was used to investigate xylem anatomical traits. We then used linear mixed-effects models to estimate the effects of height and climatic variables on our study traits. Our study showed that xylem anatomical traits in white spruce can be directly and indirectly controlled by environmental conditions: hydraulic-related traits seem to be mainly influenced by tree height, especially in the earlywood. Thus, they are indirectly driven by environmental conditions, through the environment’s effects on tree height. Traits related to mechanical support show a direct response to environmental conditions, mainly temperature, especially in the latewood. These results highlight the importance of assessing tree growth in a multidimensional way by considering both direct and indirect effects of environmental forcing to better understand the complexity of tree growth responses to the environment

A unifying concept for growth trends of trees and forests - The ‘potential natural forest'

Changes in the environment will alter the growth rate of trees and forests. Different disciplines assess such growth rates differently, for example, with tree-ring width data, forest inventories or with carbon-flux data from eddy covariance towers. Such data is used to quantify forests biomass increment, forest’s carbon sequestration or to reconstruct environmental variables before instrumental records. However, raw measurement data is typically not considered to be representative for the average growth rate of trees or forests. Depending on the research question, the effects of certain environmental variables or effects of tree and forest structure have to be removed first. It can be challenging to define and quantify a growth trend that can answer a specific research question because trees and forests grow and respond to environmental change in multiple ways simultaneously, for example, with altered radial increment, height growth, and stand density. Further challenges pose time-lagged feedback loops, for example, between height and radial increment or between stand density and radial increment. Generally, different environments will lead to different tree and forest structures, but because of tree’s longevity this adaptation to the new environment will take decades or even centuries. Consequently, there can be an offset between the present forest structure and what we term the potential natural forest (PNF): Similar to the potential natural vegetation (PNV), the PNF represents that forest that would develop under the current environmental conditions in the absence of human intervention. Because growth rates are affected by the tree and forest structure, growthtrend estimates will differ between the present and the potential forest. Consequently, if the legacy effects of the past are not of interest, the PNF is the theoretical baseline to correct and estimate growth trend