Welfare Reform, 1834

The English Old Poor Law, which before 1834 provided welfare to the elderly, children, the improvident, and the unfortunate, was a bête noire of the new discipline of Political Economy. Smith, Bentham, Malthus and Ricardo all demanded its abolition. The Poor Law Amendment Act of 1834, drafted by Political Economists, cut payments sharply. Because local rules on eligibility and provision varied greatly before the 1834 reform, we can estimate the social cost of the extensive welfare provision of the Old Poor Law. Surprisingly there is no evidence of any of the alleged social costs that prompted the harsh treatment of the poor after 1834. Political economy, it seems, was born in sin.Welfare Reform

Father's education and children's human capital: evidence from the World War II GI Bill

Children who grow up in more highly educated families have better labor market outcomes as adults than those who grow up in less educated families, but we do not know whether this is because education bestows parents with skills that make them better parents or because unobservable endowments that contribute to the parents' education levels are shared by their children. This paper attempts to improve our understanding of the causal processes that contribute to intergenerational mobility by exploiting variation in fathers' education induced by the WWII G.I. Bill. Identificatin rests on the timing of the war: the GI Bill had different effects on different cohorts depending on their likelihood of military service and the probability that schooling had been completed before the war began. I find that a one year increase in a father's education reduces the probability that his child is retained in school by about 2-3 percentage points. This implies that parental schooling levels have an affect on children's outcomes that is independent of their innate ability and suggests that public policies aimed at increasing educational attainment may have important intergenerational effects

Will You Miss Me When I Am Gone? The Economic Consequences of Absent Parents

This paper examines the effects of family structure on the economic resources available to children, using family fixed-effects to control for unobservable characteristics of the family. The effects of divorce on the income and consumption of children born to two-parent households, and the effects of marriage on children born into single-parent households are both considered. In the long-run (six or more years after the most recent divorce) family income falls by 40 to 45% after divorce, and food consumption is reduced by 17%. Six or more years after the most recent marriage, income of children born to single parents rises by 50 to 57%, but there is no statistically significant increase in food consumption. These estimates are substantially less than the difference in income implied by cross-sectional comparisons of different family types. When income changes are measured according to time since the parents first divorce, there is substantial recovery in income, virtually all of which is explained by subsequent remarriages. Similarly, when we look at income several years after a parent's first marriage, the gain is 28 to 33%, reflecting the short-lived nature of many of these marriages.

Poverty in America: Trends and Explanations

Despite robust growth in real per capita GDP over the last three decades, the U.S. poverty rate has changed very little. In an effort to better understand this disconnect, we document and quantify the relationship between poverty and four different factors that may affect poverty and its evolution over time: labor market opportunities, family structure, anti-poverty programs, and immigration. We find that the relationship between the macro-economy and poverty has weakened over time. Nevertheless, changes in labor market opportunities predict changes in the poverty rate rather well. We also find that changes in female labor supply should have reduced poverty, but was counteracted by an increase in the rate of female headship. Changes in the number and composition of immigrants and changes in the generosity of anti-poverty programs seem to have had little effect.

The Intergenerational Effects of Worker Displacement

This paper uses variation induced by firm closures to explore the intergenerational effects of worker displacement. Using a Canadian panel of administrative data that follows almost 60,000 father-child pairs from 1978 to 1999 and includes detailed information about the firms at which the father worked, we construct narrow treatment and control groups whose fathers had the same level of permanent income prior to 1982 when some of the fathers were displaced. We demonstrate that job loss leads to large permanent reductions in family income and small increases in mobility and divorce. Comparing outcomes among individuals whose fathers experienced an employment shock to outcomes among individuals whose fathers did not, we find that children whose fathers were displaced have annual earnings about 9% lower than similar children whose fathers did not experience an employment shock. They are also more likely to receive unemployment insurance and social assistance. The estimates are driven by the experiences of children whose family income was at the bottom of the income distribution, and are robust to a number of specification checks. This work was completed while Oreopoulos was a Statistics Canada Research Fellow and member of the Family and Labour Studies Division of Statistics Canada. The financial support of the National Science Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. We also wish to thank Miles Corak, and seminar participants at Brown University, MIT, Princeton University, Stanford University, Yale University, the University of California Berkeley, UCLA, the University of Toronto and the NBER summer institute for their helpful comments.worker displacement

The Intergenerational Effect of Worker Displacement

This paper uses variation induced by firm closures to explore the intergenerational effects of worker displacement. Using a Canadian panel of administrative data that follows almost 60,000 father-child pairs from 1978 to 1999 and includes detailed information about the firms at which the father worked, we construct narrow treatment and control groups whose fathers had the same level of permanent income prior to 1982 when some of the fathers were displaced. We demonstrate that job loss leads to large permanent reductions in family income. Comparing outcomes among individuals whose fathers experienced an employment shock to outcomes among individuals whose fathers did not, we find that children whose fathers were displaced have annual earnings about 9% lower than similar children whose fathers did not experience an employment shock. They are also more likely to receive unemployment insurance and social assistance. The estimates are driven by the experiences of children whose family income was at the bottom of the income distribution, and are robust to a number of specification checks.

Father's Education and Children's Human Capital: Evidence from the World War II GI Bill

Children who grow up in more highly educated families have better labor market outcomes as adults than those who grow up in less educated families, but we do not know whether this is because education bestows parents with skills that make them better parents or because unobservable endowments that contribute to the parents' education levels are shared by their children. This paper attempts to improve our understanding of the causal processes that contribute to intergenerational mobility by exploiting variation in fathers' education induced by the WWII G.I. Bill. Identificatin rests on the timing of the war: the GI Bill had different effects on different cohorts depending on their likelihood of military service and the probability that schooling had been completed before the war began. I find that a one year increase in a father's education reduces the probability that his child is retained in school by about 2-3 percentage points. This implies that parental schooling levels have an affect on children's outcomes that is independent of their innate ability and suggests that public policies aimed at increasing educational attainment may have important intergenerational effects.Intergenerational Mobility, Education, Human Capital, WWII

Does Human Capital Transfer from Parent to Child? The Intergenerational Effects of Compulsory Schooling

The strong correlation between parents' economic status and that of their children has been well-documented, but little is known about the extent to which this is a causal phenomenon. This paper attempts to improve our understanding of the causal processes that contribute to intergenerational immobility by exploiting historical changes in compulsory schooling laws that affected the educational attainment of parents without affecting their innate abilities or endowments. We examine the influence of parental compulsory schooling on grade retention status for children aged 7 to 15 using the 1960, 1970 and 1980 U.S. Censuses. Our estimates indicate that a one-year increase in the education of either parent reduces the probability that a child repeats a grade by between two and seven percentage points. Among 15 to 16 year olds living at home, we also estimate that parental compulsory schooling significantly lowers the likelihood of dropping out. These findings suggest that education policies may be able to reduce part of the intergenerational transmission of inequality.