Financing the future : infrastructure needs in Latin America, 2000-05

To assess five-year demand for infrastructure investment in Latin America and the Caribbean, and the private sector's role in meeting this demand, the author developed a model to predict future demand for infrastructure - defined as what consumers and producers would ask for, given their income and level of economic activity. Overall projections over the next five years: a) A doubling of telephone mainlines per capita. b) A steady increase in electricity generating capacity. c) Small increases in water and sanitation coverage. d) Steady expansion of road infrastructure, with rail transport becoming less important. Investments of $57 billion annually for 2000-05 (roughly 2.6 percent of Latin America's GDP) are expected to be absorbed largely by electricity ($22 billion), roads ($18 billion), and telecommunications ($ 6 billion). A surge in private finance of infrastructure in recent years (roughly $35 billion in 1998, excluding divestiture payments) has disproportionately favored telecommunications ($14 billion) and transport ($12 billion). Private investment exceeds predicted need for telecommunications (although the model did not include costs associated with the emergence of cellular phones), covers about half the demand for roads, and meets just a fraction of needs in power and water and sanitation - where there will be a shortfall in investments. Projections are likely to be on the low side because they cover new investments, not rehabilitation or maintenance.

Urbanization without growth : a not-so-uncommon phenomenon

To find out why African countries'experience with urbanization and sustained growth appeared to differ from that of other countries, the authors investigated the determinants of urbanization across countries over 40 years. Rather than studying individuals'decisions to migrate, they relied on macroeconomic data and cross-country comparisons. A central hypothesis of their study: that individuals move (with varying degrees of ease) in response to economic incentives and opportunities. If location incentives are distorted, so is growth. The authors find that urbanization levels are closely correlated with levels of income. But urbanization continues even during periods of negative growth, carried by its own momentum, largely a function of the level of urbanization. From that viewpoint, Africa's urbanization without growth is not a puzzle. Factors other than income that help predict differences in levels of urbanization across countries include: a) income structure; b) education; c) rural-urban wage differentials; d) ethnic tensions; and e) civil disturbances. In addition, the relationship between economic incentives and urbanization is weaker in countries with fewer civil or political liberties. Factors other than initial urbanization level that help explain the speed of urbanization include: 1) The sector from which income growth is derived; 2) ethnic tensions; 3) civil disturbances and democracy (these two slow the pace of urbanization if all else is constant); 4) rural-urban wage differentials, whether they represent an urban bias or simply lower productivity in agriculture relative to other sectors. The weak relationship that this study shows between urbanization and traditionally accepted migration factors suggests that in Africa economists are overlooking part of the urbanization story. The fact that the informal sector appears to provide a significant source of income for urban migrants, coupled with the overlap between rural and urban activities, may shed light on the nature of urbanization in Africa.Banks&Banking Reform,National Urban Development Policies&Strategies,Urban Housing and Land Settlements,Public Health Promotion,Urban Services to the Poor,Urban Housing and Land Settlements,National Urban Development Policies&Strategies,Governance Indicators,Banks&Banking Reform,Urban Services to the Poor

Investing in infrastructure : what is needed from 2000 to 2010?

The authors estimate demand for infrastructure services over the first decade of the new millennium based on a model that relates demand for infrastructure with the structural change and growth in income the world is expected to undergo between now and 2010. It should be noted that predictions are based on estimated demand rather than on any absolute measure of"need"such as those developed in the Millenium Development Goals. The authors also provide estimates of associated investment and maintenance expenditures and predict total required resource flows to satisfy new demand while maintaining service for existing infrastructure.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Decentralization,Urban Services to the Poor,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Urban Services to the Poor,Urban Services to the Poor

Current debates on infrastructure policy

This paper provides an overview of the major current debates on infrastructure policy. It reviews the evidence on the macroeconomic significance of the sector in terms of growth and poverty alleviation. It also discusses the major institutional debates, including the relative comparative advantage of the public and the private sector in the various stages of infrastructure service delivery as well as the main options for changes in the role of government (i.e. regulation and decentralization).Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Debt Markets,Non Bank Financial Institutions,Infrastructure Economics

Product market regulation in Romania : a comparison with OECD countries

Less restrictive product market policies are crucial in promoting convergence to higher levels of GDP per capita. This paper benchmarks product market policies in Romania to those of OECD countries by estimating OECD indicators of Product Market Regulation (PMR). The PMR indicators allow a comprehensive mapping of policies affecting competition in product markets. Comparison with OECD countries reveals that Romania's product market policies are less restrictive of competition than most direct comparators from the region and not far from the OECD average. Nonetheless, this achievement should be interpreted in light of the fact that PMR approach measures officially adopted policies. It does not capture implementation and enforcement, the area where future reform efforts should be directed if less restrictive policies are to have an effective impact on long-term growth prospects.Public Sector Regulation,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,E-Business,Emerging Markets,Markets and Market Access

Product Market Regulation in Romania: A Comparison with OECD Countries

Less restrictive product market policies are crucial in promoting convergence to higher levels of GDP per capita. This paper benchmarks product market policies in Romania to those of the OECD countries by estimating OECD indicators of Product Market Regulation (PMR). The PMR indicators allow a comprehensive mapping of policies affecting competition in product markets. Comparison with OECD countries reveals that Romania’s product market policies are less restrictive of competition than most direct comparators from the region and not far from the OECD average. Nonetheless, this achievement should be interpreted in light of the fact that PMR approach measures officially adopted policies. It does not capture implementation and enforcement, the area where future reform efforts should be directed if less restrictive policies are to have an effective impact on long-term growth prospects. Part I : a comparative analysis of Romania’s PRM and Inward-oriented Policies.regulation, product markets, administrative reforms, inward looking policies, outward looking policies

Product Market Regulation in Romania: A Comparison with OECD Countries - Part II

Less restrictive product market policies are crucial in promoting convergence to higher levels of GDP per capita. This paper benchmarks product market policies in Romania to those of OECD countries by estimating OECD indicators of Product Market Regulation (PMR). The PMR indicators allow a comprehensive mapping of policies affecting competition in product markets. Comparison with OECD countries reveals that Romania’s product market policies are less restrictive of competition than most direct comparators from the region and not far from the OECD average. Nonetheless, this achievement should be interpreted in light of the fact that PMR approach measures officially adopted policies. It does not capture implementation and enforcement, the area where future reform efforts should be directed if less restrictive policies are to have an effective impact on long-term growth prospects. Part II: Outward-oriented Policies with some suggestions for the next steps.regulation, product markets, administrative reforms, inward looking policies, outward looking policies

Product market regulation in Bulgaria : a comparison with OECD Countries

Less restrictive product market policies are crucial in promoting convergence to higher levels of GDP per capita. This paper benchmarks product market policies in Bulgaria to those of OECD countries by estimating OECD indicators of Product Market Regulation (PMR). The PMR indicators allow a comprehensive mapping of policies affecting competition in product markets. Comparison with OECD countries reveals that Bulgaria has made substantial progress towards less restrictive product market policies but also emphasizes a number of areas where further reform is needed. These include adoption of a regulatory process based on incentive-based rather than command-and-control approach, reduction of state interference in the decision of state-owned enterprises, further streamlining of business licensing procedures, and improvement in the communication of rules and procedures to affected parties.Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Public Sector Regulation,E-Business,Emerging Markets,Markets and Market Access

From Growth to Green Growth - a Framework

Green growth is about making growth resource-efficient, cleaner and more resilient without slowing it. This paper aims at clarifying this in an analytical framework and proposing foundations for green growth. This framework identifies channels through which green policies can potentially contribute to economic growth. Finally, the paper discusses the policies that can be implemented to capture co-benefits and environmental benefits. Since green growth policies pursue a variety of goals, they are best served by a combination of instruments: price-based policies are important but are only one component in a policy tool-box that can also include norms and regulation, public production and direct investment, information creation and dissemination, education and moral suasion, or industrial and innovation policies.

From growth to green growth -- a framework

Green growth is about making growth processes resource-efficient, cleaner and more resilient without necessarily slowing them. This paper aims at clarifying these concepts in an analytical framework and at proposing foundations for green growth. The green growth approach proposed here is based on (1) focusing on what needs to happen over the next 5-10 years before the world gets locked into patterns that would be prohibitively expensive and complex to modify and (2) reconciling the short and the long term, by offsetting short-term costs and maximizing synergies and economic co-benefits. This, in turn, increases the social and political acceptability of environmental policies. This framework identifies channels through which green policies can potentially contribute to economic growth. However, only detailed country- and context-specific analyses for each of these channels could reach firm conclusion regarding their actual impact on growth. Finally, the paper discusses the policies that can be implemented to capture these co-benefits and environmental benefits. Since green growth policies pursue a variety of goals, they are best served by a combination of instruments: price-based policies are important but are only one component in a policy tool-box that can also include norms and regulation, public production and direct investment, information creation and dissemination, education and moral suasion, or industrial and innovation policies.Environmental Economics&Policies,Climate Change Economics,Economic Theory&Research,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Labor Policies