Analysis of Trends in Emission of Criteria Air Pollutants and Human Health in an Era of Regulation

Several studies have shown the environmental and health impacts of emission of criteria air pollutants such as SO2, NOx, PM, and VOCs. These pollutants are primarily associated with acid rain, ground level ozone or smog, and formation of inhalable particulate. The present study will examine trends in emissions of these pollutants, and selected indicators of human health affected by these pollutants over the past two decades. Furthermore, the study will implement a method called linear structural relationship or causal analysis to identify the impact of factors that may affect ambient concentration of pollutants and the human health. Finally, the study will determine whether or not the changes observed over the past two decades with respect to reduction in emissions, improvements in human health indicators, and environmental expenditures are statistically significant. The study is expected to make contribution towards identification of factors or issues that policy makers and regulators should focus on and whether or not regulations have made significant difference in influencing emissions, environmental and human health risk factors.Key Words: LISREL; Path; Causal; Emissions; Environmental; Health; Time-series; Econometrics; Chow

Trends in Resource Extraction and Implications for Sustainability in Canada

There is a disagreement on the concept, definition and application of the paradigm of sustainable development. The definition that has been accepted by many involves several components, and it is difficult to measure or quantify indicators. Depending on the structure of the economy, it is possible to identify important variables and examine some aspects of sustainability. In this respect, analysis of indicators related to the extraction of natural resources seems to be appropriate for a resource-based economy. For resource-based economy such as Canada is the speed with which natural resources are extracted greatly influence patterns of growth and development. Indicators can be established to measure the progress toward to or demise of sustainability. Indicators that deal with the speed with which resources such as non-renewable energy, minerals, forests, soil, water, etc., have been utilized to examine aspects of sustainability. However, these indicators have been argued to provide less guidance for the implementation of feasible public policies unless supplemented by other kinds of analyses that relate resource use with socioeconomic parameters. The utilization of resources could be evaluated in relation to available stock as a proxy for progress toward sustainability. The extraction of resources may also cause major environmental problems due to the release of pollutants or wastes that requires an increasing amount of expenditure for environmnetal protection. This is crucial for countries such as Canada whose major export is dependent on availability of natural resources and heavily impacted by external public debt. The present study will examine stock, depletion and addition of natural resources to evaluate sustainability of consumption patterns. In addition, the consumption of these resources will be compared with selected socioeconomic indicators such as GDP, employment, etc., to anticipate whether or not these factors may have contributed to increased consumption of natural resources. Furthermore, attempts will be made to investigate the patterns of expenditure to protect the environment from wastes and pollutants. The findings of this study could serve as an early warning system with respect to depletion of resources and their consequent environmental impacts.sustainable development; extraction; natural resources; Canada; non-renewable energy; environmental protection; stock; depletion; time series; econometric

Environmental Sustainability and Regulation: To-Down Versus Bottom-Up Regulation

Environmental regulation can be broadly divided into those that follow the top-down and bottom-up approaches. The two approaches have similar objective with respect to environmental protection and sustainability. However, the success with which each approach achieves goals of environmental protection and sustainability may vary. Moreover, the costs and benefits of each approach differ. The present study will explore the implication of environmental regulation to sustainability, costs associated with regulations, and alternatives with respect to using mixes of market-based instruments. The study will review top-down and bottom-up environmental regulations with the objective of identifying weakness and strength of each approach. Furthermore, the study will make recommendations on possible strategies (e.g., mixes of regulatory instruments) that will contribute toward the attainment of sustainable environment, and by implication to sustainable development.Regulation; Top-down; Bottom-up; Market-based; Performance-based; Environmental

Causal Relationship Between Indicators of Human Health, the Environment and Socioeconomic Variables for the OECD Countries

There has been a lot of debate regarding the impact of emissions of pollutants on human health and the environment. Epidemiological studies tend to show the impact of increased ambient concentrations of pollutants on increased hospital admissions, mortality, morbidity, respiratory problems, etc. Without controlled experiments that compare people who are exposed to contaminants to those who are not, it is impossible to predict the causes and effects with certainty. Nevertheless, estimates of human and environmental health benefits from improved air quality indicate that there are associations between ambient concentrations of contaminants, human health and environmental impacts. The present study examines the linkages between human health, environmental quality, and emission of pollutants and selected socioeconomic variables for selected OECD regions. Path or causal models will be constructed using health, socioeconomic and environmental parameters to determine the direction of causal relationships, their magnitude and possible implication for public policy making. This analysis will be performed for the OECD countries, and selected regions of the OECD (North America, the Pacific Rim, and Europe). Comparative analysis of the relationships between human health, socioeconomic and environmental variables among the OECD countries will indicate, among other things, i) whether or not environmental quality is an important determinant of human health, ii) whether or not spending on health care system is significantly influenced by indicators of health status that are included by environmental variables, and iii) which socioeconomic variables are significantly associated with indicators of human and the environment health.Interrelationship; causal linkages; socioeconomic; environmental; OECD; LISREL; modeling; air quality; energy consumption; environmental protection; emission; SO2; NOx; VOCs; economic growth; human health

The Implication of Incorporating Environmental Costs in Utility Rate Setting

Electric and natural gas are the two major sources of energy for residents of Washington State. Several states have adopted a policy whereby utility companies decide on the choice of mixes of resources by incorporating cost effectiveness, conservation and externalities. Externalities could include the direct and indirect environmental and human health cost of using resources such as electricity and gas that are not captured by market prices. Washington State possesses diverse resources that are susceptible to wastes and emissions originating from the consumption of energy. The impact of these wastes could be spatial, short-lived or cumulative. By most accounts the overall impact of pollution on ecosystems could be far-reaching and greater than the quantifiable and monetized impacts of environmental externalities. The need to account for environmental externality becomes even stronger in situations where inter-generational equity is used as a criterion for planning long term resource requirement. Utility companies in Washington State are not required to explicitly incorporate or account for externality in the development and implementation of Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). IRPs are used by utility companies to facilitate the identification of the least-cost mixes of resources in the delivery of energy to their customers over a long planning horizon. In addition, there are no cases in which utility companies were ordered to incorporate costs of environmental externality in setting rates. The present study is intended to show the implication of explicitly incorporating externality in rate setting on i) changes in the prices of energy or utility rates, and ii) its contribution toward reducing emissions of selected pollutants. The study will explore situations under which externality estimates from other studies could be utilized to develop energy policies. Furthermore, the study will discuss ways in which increases in costs of using energy as a result of accounting for externality may be shared or accounted.Electricity; natural gas; energy; cost effectiveness; conservation; externalities; environmental and human health; Integrated Resource Plan (IRP); long planning horizon; utility rates; emissions; pollutants

Optimal Acid Rain Abatement Strategies for Eastern Canada

In the past environmental management practices have been based on disparate analysis of the impacts of pollutants on selected components of ecosystems. However, holistic analysis of emission reduction strategies is necessary to justify that actions taken to protect the environment would not unduly punish economic growth or vice versa. When environmental management programs are implemented, it would be extremely difficult for the industry to attain the targeted emission reduction in a single year in order to eliminate impacts on ecosystems. It means that targets have to be established as increments or narrowing the gap between the desired level of atmospheric deposition and actual deposition. These targets should also be designed in a way that would balance the impacts on the economy with improvements in environmental quality. Environment Canada in partnership with other organizations has developed an Integrated Assessment Modeling Platform. This platform enables to identify an emission reduction strategy(ies) that is(are) able to attain the desired environmental protection at a minimum cost to the industry. In this study, an attempt is made to examine the impact on the industry when the level of protection provided to the aquatic ecosystems is implemented using environmental and environmental-economic goals as objectives using Canadian IAM platform. The modeling platform takes into account sources and receptor regions in North America. The results of the analysis indicated that reductions of at least 50% of depositions of SO2 would require complete removal of emissions from all sources. However, this is not compatible with the paradigm of balancing economy with the environment. Therefore, gradual reductions in emissions as well as depositions were found to be plausible strategy. Furthermore, optimization using only a single receptor at a time resulted in significantly higher reduction in emissions compared to optimization that incorporates all the twelve Canadian receptors in a single run. It implies that globally optimal emission reduction strategy (i.e., multi-receptor optimization) would not penalize the sources of emission compared to locally optimal emission reduction strategy (i.e., single receptor optimization). It is hoped that with this kind of analysis of feasible environmental targets can be put in place without jeopardizing the performance of the economy or industry while ensuring continual improvements in environmental health of ecosystems.Canada; long-range transport; air pollutants; acid deposition; North America; sources-receptors; negotiation; cost; emissions; cost functions; SO2; cost curves; control technologies; Integrated Assessment Modelling; USA

Statistical Time Series Analysis of Emission and Deposition of SO2 and NOx in Northeastern North America

Trend analysis and forecasting of time series data on air-pollutants is important to design effective measures to minimize damages to ecosystems and human health. In this study, autoregressive, moving average, autoregressive-moving average and autoregressive integrated moving average processes of different order were implemented to examine patterns of depositions and emissions. Analysis was undertaken to examine stationarity of the series or to design a method to create stationary series. The model that satisfied selected statistical criteria was chosen to make forecasts. Forecasts of depositions were compared with critical loads by watersheds. The findings of this study indicated that both wet depositions and emissions of SO2 and NOx data exhibited non-stationarity. After removing non-stationarity, suitable time-series model was selected for short-run forecasting (1994 to 2005). The resulting depositions and emissions data were examined with respect to their long-run movement and critical deposition loadings. The analysis showed that excess wet depositions of SO2 and NO3 would be major problems at least for ten years. Most of these problems are observed in Atlantic Canada and few watersheds in Quebec and Ontario. Although emissions of SO2 have declined, emissions of NOx remained unchanged or increased compared to the 1980 level. Considering the fact that these pollutants contribute to acidification, eutrophication and formation of secondary particulates that are hazardous to human health, it is necessary to find ways of further reducing emissions and depositions of these pollutants. While substantial progress has been made with respect to reduction of SO2 emissions (especially in Canada), the analysis presented in this study indicated that there must be substantially more reductions to ensure the protection of sensitive ecosystems. Thus, evidences similar to those presented in this study should be gathered to initiate negotiations for reductions beyond the 2005 or 2010 commitments.Trend analysis; forecasting; air-pollutants; ecosystems; human health; autoregressive; moving average; autoregressive-moving average; autoregressive integrated moving average processes; depositions; emissions; SO2 ; NOx ; Canada

Agricultural Information and Indigenous Knowledge in Peasant Economy

Agricultural information and indigenous knowledge were examined among peasants of the central Ethiopian highlands. Measures of central tendency, logical explanation, descriptive analysis, problem solving tests, scoring and logit analysis were performed. The findings indicate that information from extension agents tends to favour peasant associations or farmers that are closer to cities, service cooperatives, politicians and extension agents. Despite variations in the sources and access to information, the extent to which information is subjected to conscious processing determines its value to decision-makers. Furthermore, the value of information is greatly influenced by indigenous knowledge or social experience and schooling. Farmers who are beneficiaries of projects and friends with politicians received higher scores on production problems compared to the control group. Production knowledge is found to be locale-specific and varies by age. Production knowledge is greatly influenced by experience, index of awareness, proximity to infrastructural facilities and sources of information. The findings also indicate that education enables households to relate production problems to experience and outside information. Development strategies could facilitate the attainment of food self-sufficiency if the contents and delivery mechanisms of agricultural information are equitable, and indigenous production knowledge of peasants is integrated with secular and extension education.Agricultural information; indigenous knowledge; peasants; Ethiopia; central tendency; logical explanation; descriptive analysis; problem solving tests; scoring and logit analysis

VOCs’s Cost functions in the Design of Emission Abatement Strategies

VOCs and NOx are the primary precursors in the formation of ground-level ozone (SMOG). The rate of formation is a function of concentrations, temperature and sunlight strength. Both pollutants as well as the ozone itself can be transported over very long distances. Therefore, it can affect regions that are close or far from the sources of emissions. In fact approximately 50% of the ozone problem found in the Windsor - Quebec corridor can be attributed to US emissions. Ozone can affect the health and productivity of humans, crops, forests and other ecosystems. It is now recognized that there is no thresh-hold level below which no effects are felt. Strategies to reduce emission of VOCs involve either cost or emission optimization. Cost optimization requires the availability of abatement cost functions. The current study presents methodologies to derive cost functions for VOCs in Canada. Abatement cost functions are mathematical representations of discrete emission reduction points and their corresponding total annualized cost. The objective for which cost functions are derived determines the procedure employed in deriving cost functions. In this study, cost functions are derived based on cost estimates from engineering models by analyzing plant level data on end of pipe abatement technologies and their related costs. Emissions of VOCs were gathered by plant, by sector, by region and nationally. Commonly used, VOCs control technologies were identified. Engineering cost models were used to generate total annualized costs and the corresponding emission reduction for individual plants. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software was used to fit different functional forms to the total annualized cost and removal data. Four kinds of cost functions were derived. These include national, regional, sectoral and plant specific cost functions. The results showed that cost functions derived for the four categories indicated above, can be represented by different types of curves such as exponential, quadratic or even power. These curves could be used to facilitate the design of bilateral or multilateral, national, inter-provincial, or intra-provincial air pollution management strategies. The uses of these cost functions in pollution abatement not only treat countries, regions, sectors or plants equitably but also produce realistic cost data compared to average cost data. Furthermore, these functions could be incorporated into an integrated assessment model so that the resulting emission abatement strategies would cost the industry and/or the public minimum amount.VOCs; NOx; ground-level ozone; pollutants; emissions; optimization; cost minimization; cost functions; Canada; abatement cost functions; abatement technologies

Production Efficiency and Agricultural Technologies in the Ethiopian Agriculture

Stochastic frontier production function analysis was performed to examine relative crop and milk production efficiency among peasants in Ada and Selale districts of the Central highlands of Ethiopia. The results indicate that Ada farmers exhibit relatively higher efficiency scores in cereal production compared to Selale producers. Farmers who adopted cross-bred cows attained higher efficiency scores than farmers who did not adopted. Production efficiency scores are higher in enterprises that enjoys experience and location specific comparative advantages. The magnitude of the impacts of knowledge-related variables (i.e., production knowledge and schooling) on production efficiency are higher relative to other variables. Adoption of one or two innovations show a consistently large, positive and significant effect on all measures of production efficiency in the Selale region. Higher production efficiency is attained in Ada region if producers adopt two or more technologies. Development strategies should examine the mixes of production technologies that may contribute to increases in agricultural production compared to the conventional package approach.Stochastic frontier production function; production efficiency; Ethiopia; comparative advantages; knowledge; adoption of technologies; agriculture