Suicide in the Philippines: time trend analysis (1974-2005) and literature review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Suicide prevention is given a low priority in many Western Pacific countries due to competing health problems, stigma and poor understanding of its incidence and aetiology. Little is known about the epidemiology of suicide and suicidal behaviour in the Philippines and although its incidence is reported to be low, there is likely to be under-reporting because of its non-acceptance by the Catholic Church and the associated stigma to the family. This study aims to investigate trends in the incidence of suicide in the Philippines, assess possible underreporting and provide information on the methods used and the reasons for suicide.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data for suicide deaths occurring between 1974 and 2005 were obtained from Philippine Health Statistics. Age- and sex-specific trends were examined graphically. Underreporting was investigated by comparing trends in suicides, accidents and deaths of undetermined intent. To provide a fuller picture of suicide in the Philippines, a comprehensive search for published papers, theses and reports on the epidemiology of suicide in the Philippines was undertaken.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The incidence of suicide in males increased from 0.23 to 3.59 per 100,000 between 1984 and 2005. Similarly, rates rose from 0.12 to 1.09 per 100,000 in females. Amongst females, suicide rates were highest in 15-24 year olds, whilst in males rates were similar in all age groups throughout the study period. The most commonly used methods of suicide were hanging, shooting and organophosphate ingestion. In non-fatal attempts, the most common methods used were ingestion of drugs, specifically isoniazid and paracetamol, or organophosphate ingestion. Family and relationship problems were the most common precipitants. While rates were lower compared to other countries, there is suggestive evidence of underreporting and misclassification to undetermined injury. Recent increases may reflect either true increase or better reporting of suicides.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>While suicide rates are low in the Philippines, increases in incidence and relatively high rates in adolescents and young adults point to the importance of focused suicide prevention programs. Improving data quality and better reporting of suicide deaths is likewise imperative to inform and evaluate prevention strategies.</p

Can we accurately forecast non-elective bed occupancy and admissions in the NHS?:A time-series MSARIMA analysis of longitudinal data from an NHS Trust

OBJECTIVES: The main objective of the study was to develop more accurate and precise short-term forecasting models for admissions and bed occupancy for an NHS Trust located in Bristol, England. Subforecasts for the medical and surgical specialties, and for different lengths of stay were realised DESIGN: Autoregressive integrated moving average models were specified on a training dataset of daily count data, then tested on a 6-week forecast horizon. Explanatory variables were included in the models: day of the week, holiday days, lagged temperature and precipitation. SETTING: A secondary care hospital in an NHS Trust in South West England. PARTICIPANTS: Hospital admissions between September 2016 and March 2020, comprising 1291 days. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The accuracy of the forecasts was assessed through standard measures, as well as compared with the actual data using accuracy thresholds of 10% and 20% of the mean number of admissions or occupied beds. RESULTS: The overall Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) admissions forecast was compared with the Trust’s forecast, and found to be more accurate, namely, being closer to the actual value 95.6% of the time. Furthermore, it was more precise than the Trust’s. The subforecasts, as well as those for bed occupancy, tended to be less accurate compared with the overall forecasts. All of the explanatory variables improved the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: ARIMA models can forecast non-elective admissions in an NHS Trust accurately on a 6-week horizon, which is an improvement on the current predictive modelling in the Trust. These models can be readily applied to other contexts, improving patient flow

Time from diagnosis to surgery and prostate cancer survival: a retrospective cohort study

Background: A diagnosis of prostate cancer leads to emotional distress and anxiety, prompting calls for rapid diagnostic pathways. Nevertheless, it remains unclear what impact time between diagnosis and surgery has upon prostate cancer survival. Methods: Using national databases for England (cancer registries, Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics), we identified 17,043 men with prostate cancer, aged 15 years and older, diagnosed in 1996–2009, and who had surgical resection with curative intent within 6 months of diagnosis. We used relative survival to investigate associations between waiting times and five- and ten-year survival. Results: Five- and ten-year relative survival estimates for the total study sample were 1.04 (95% CI: 1.04 to 1.05) and 1.08 (95% CI: 1.06-1.09), respectively. There were no notable differences in survival between patients who had surgery at 0–3 and 4–6 months after diagnosis. Relative survival was higher among the elderly (>65) and those with well and moderately differentiated tumours. Conclusion: The high relative survival in our cohort probably reflects adherence to selection criteria for surgery among men with localised prostate cancer. Among men treated with surgery within 6 months of diagnosis, we found little evidence of an association between time from diagnosis to surgery and survival.6 page(s

Associations of GP practice characteristics with the rate of ambulatory care sensitive conditions in people living with dementia in England:an ecological analysis of routine data

Abstract Background Hospital admissions for Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions (ACSCs) are potentially avoidable. Dementia is one of the leading chronic conditions in terms of variability in ACSC admissions by general practice, as well as accounting for around a third of UK emergency admissions. Methods Using Bayesian multilevel linear regression models, we examined the ecological association of organizational characteristics of general practices (ACSC n=7076, non-ACSC n=7046 units) and Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCG n=212 units) in relation to ACSC and non-ACSC admissions for people with dementia in England. Results The rate of hospital admissions are variable between GP practices, with deprivation and being admitted from home as risk factors for admission for ACSC and non-ACSC admissions. The budget allocated by the CCG to mental health shows diverging effects for ACSC versus non-ACSC admissions, so it is likely there is some geographic variation. Conclusions A variety of factors that could explain avoidable admissions for PWD at the practice level were examined; most were equally predictive for avoidable and non-avoidable admissions. However, a high amount of variation found at the practice level, in conjunction with the diverging effects of the CCG mental health budget, implies that guidance may be applied inconsistently, or local services may have differences in referral criteria. This indicates there is potential scope for improvement

Regression discontinuity analysis for pharmacovigilance:statin example reflected trial findings showing little evidence of harm

OBJECTIVES: The study aims to explore the use of regression discontinuity analysis (RDA) to examine effects of prescription of statins on total cholesterol and adverse outcomes (type 2 diabetes, rhabdomyolysis and myopathy, myalgia and myositis, liver disease, CVD, and mortality). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We conducted a prospective cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink including patients with QRISK scores of 10 to 30 in 2010 to 2013 who were last followed-up in October 2016. Comparing patients with QRISK≥20 and QRISK<20, we explored RDA assumptions, provided proof of concept analyses (total cholesterol as outcome), and investigated the effect of statins prescription on adverse outcomes. RESULT: RDA confirmed statin prescription reduced total cholesterol (Mean difference (MD) -1.33 mmol/L, 95%Confidence Interval (CI) -1.93 to -0.73). RDA provided little evidence for adverse effects on diabetes, myalgia and myositis, liver disease, CVD, or mortality. The RDA analysis findings are similar to RCT results. Findings from non-RDA analysis agree with published observational studies. CONCLUSION: RDA can be used with large routine clinical datasets to provide evidence on effects of medications which are prescribed according to a threshold. Testable RDA assumptions were satisfied, but confidence intervals were wide, partly due to the low compliance with the prescribing threshold

Long-term impact of the expansion of a hospital liaison psychiatry service on patient care and costs following emergency department attendances for self-harm

BACKGROUND: In September 2014, as part of a national initiative to increase access to liaison psychiatry services, the liaison psychiatry services at Bristol Royal Infirmary received new investment of £250 000 per annum, expanding its availability from 40 to 98 h per week. The long-term impact on patient outcomes and costs, of patients presenting to the emergency department with self-harm, is unknown. AIMS: To assess the long-term impact of the investment on patient care outcomes and costs, of patients presenting to the emergency department with self-harm. METHOD: Monthly data for all self-harm emergency department attendances between 1 September 2011 and 30 September 2017 was modelled using Bayesian structural time series to estimate expected outcomes in the absence of expanded operating hours (the counterfactual). The difference between the observed and expected trends for each outcome were interpreted as the effects of the investment. RESULTS: Over the 3 years after service expansion, the mean number of self-harm attendances increased 13%. Median waiting time from arrival to psychosocial assessment was 2 h shorter (18.6% decrease, 95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI) −30.2% to −2.8%), there were 45 more referrals to other agencies (86.1% increase, 95% BCI 60.6% to 110.9%) and a small increase in the number of psychosocial assessments (11.7% increase, 95% BCI −3.4% to 28.5%) per month. Monthly mean net hospital costs were £34 more per episode (5.3% increase, 95% BCI −11.6% to 25.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Despite annual increases in emergency department attendances, investment was associated with reduced waiting times for psychosocial assessment and more referrals to other agencies, with only a small increase in cost per episode