Combination schemes for turning point prediction

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-Switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In order to account for parameter uncertainty we consider a Bayesian approach to both estimation and prediction and compare, in terms of statistical accuracy, the individual models and the combined turning point predictions for the United States and Euro area business cycles

Urinary antihypertensive drug metabolite screening using molecular networking coupled to high-resolution mass spectrometry fragmentation

Introduction Mass spectrometry is the current technique of choice in studying drug metabolism. High-resolution mass spectrometry in combination with MS/MS gas-phase experiments has the potential to contribute to rapid advances in this field. However, the data emerging from such fragmentation spectral files pose challenges to downstream analysis, given their complexity and size. Objectives This study aims to detect and visualize antihypertensive drug metabolites in untargeted metabolomics experiments based on the spectral similarity of their fragmentation spectra. Furthermore, spectral clusters of endogenous metabolites were also examined. Methods Here we apply a molecular networking approach to seek drugs and their metabolites, in fragmentation spectra from urine derived from a cohort of 26 patients on antihypertensive therapy. The mass spectrometry data was collected on a Thermo Q-Exactive coupled to pHILIC chromatography using data dependent analysis (DDA) MS/MS gas-phase experiments. Results In total, 165 separate drug metabolites were found and structurally annotated (17 by spectral matching and 122 by classification based on a clustered fragmentation pattern). The clusters could be traced to 13 drugs including the known antihypertensives verapamil, losartan and amlodipine. The molecular networking approach also generated clusters of endogenous metabolites, including carnitine derivatives, and conjugates containing glutamine, glutamate and trigonelline. Conclusions The approach offers unprecedented capability in the untargeted identification of drugs and their metabolites at the population level and has great potential to contribute to understanding stratified responses to drugs where differences in drug metabolism may determine treatment outcome