Brazil, the GATT, and the WTO: history and prospects

1. Brazil and the GATT, 1947-1980 Early years: GATT and ITO The first 20 years: rich men’s club and free riders Brazil and the Tokyo Round 2. Skirmishes before the Uruguay Round, 1980-86 3. The Uruguay Round, 1986-1994 4. Brazil and the GATT, 1980-1994 5. Brazil and the WTO after the Uruguay Round, 1994-1998 6. Brazilian diplomacy in the GATT and the WTO 7. Perspectives

China´s emergence in the global economy and Brazil

This paper focuses on the impact of China’s emergence on Brazil trade and investment flows and also on the policies and initiatives taken by the Brazilian public and private sectors seeking to meet the challenge raised by it. Based on this evidence alternative scenarios of future developments concerning China and its impact on Brazil will be outlined and Brazilian policies considered. The paper is divided into four sections. The first section describes the effects of China’s expanded role in the world economy on trade and investment flows from a Brazilian perspective. Section 2 examines the complementarity between trade and outward investment flows for Brazil and China. Diversion of foreign direct investment from Brazil to China is briefly considered. The third section focuses on Brazilian policies and China.The conclusive section centers on future developments concerning the Chinese economy and how they may effect Brazil and considers policy suggestions to complement what has already been done to face the challenges and exploit opportunities raised by China’s increasing role in the world economy.

Which "industrial policies" are meaningful for Latin America?

This paper’s main concern is to assess which "industrial policies" would be meaningful for Latin America nowadays. The first section considers definitions of "industrial policies" and their nature in the past. The second section centers on national growth experiences that may serve as paradigms for LAC economies. Section 3 is on economies which are growth paradigms and on their relevant policies. Section 4 is on present multilateral constraints on "industrial policies", especially in the case of subsidies and trade-related investment measures, as these have been considerably tightened as a result of the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations. The following section analyses the link between macroeconomics and "industrial policies" both in relation to limitations imposed by macroeconomic instability on industrial policy and to how growth depends on the cost of investment on both micro and macroeconomic factors. Section 6 analyses industrial policy alternatives. The paper concludes with section 7 which is on policy recommendations seeking to improve criteria to pick winners where market failures are especially costly.

The insurance industry in Brazil: a long-term view

This paper surveys the formation and development of insurance business in Brazil. It describes its very first steps, from the colonial times and imperial era to recent events. Particular attention is given to regulatory changes, showing how they evolved in response to macroeconomic shocks that affected the Brazilian economy during this period.Insurance, Brazil, Regulation. JEL Code: G22, G38, L50, N46.

The insurance industry in Brazil: a long-term view

This paper surveys the formation and development of insurance business in Brazil. It describes its origins, from the colonial times and imperial era to recent events. Particular attention is given to regulatory changes, showing how they evolved in response to macroeconomic shocks that affected the Brazilian economy during this period.Insurance, Brazil, Regulation

Market Power and Commodity Prices: Brazil, Chile and the United States, 1820s-1930

The paper focuses on market power by certain countries in specific commodity markets as a crucial factor in explaining the level of protection. It is argued that a country which is a price maker in the world market of a specific commodity might affect its world price through export taxes, import taxes and commodity stockpiling. Standard reduced form equations were estimated to test if significant market shares in international markets of Brazilian coffee, Chilean saltpetre and US cotton implied domestic variables were relevant for the determination of the corresponding world commodity prices. Results suggest the producers succeeded in passing through increases in internal costs to the relevant world commodity price.

The Brazilian economy from Cardoso to Lula: An interim view

This chapter on the Brazilian economy after 1994 is of a somewhat different nature compared to those on the economy in earlier periods. It is more speculative than its predecessors and based on a more restricted range of bibliographical material, as there is less consolidated research work on the period. It is to stress the obvious that the essay is inevitably marred to a certain degree by the lack of a sufficiently long time perspective. But it was thought that the benefits of providing a provisional account of the more recent economic developments in Brazil far outstripped the costs. The Brazilian economic history from 1995 to 2004 was still dominated by efforts to stabilise the economy. The essay is structured around an analysis of the eventful macroeconomic policies followed during the period. Other aspects are also considered, but often only to allow a clearer picture of the evolution of macroeconomic policies and the constraints they had to face. At first, the main economic policy objective was to consolidate the results of the Real Plan and to make sure that the long high inflation experience was really over. But soon the need to put public accounts under control and to make a sizable external adjustment would become the main challenges to be faced. A major balance of payments crisis in early 1999 imposed much overdue drastic changes in economic policy. Further disturbances occurred in 2002, the last year of Cardoso’s second term, as financial markets reflected fears that economic policy could be reversed with the likely victory of the opposition presidential candidate, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. But, somewhat surprisingly, the new government opted for policies that by and large represented a continuation of the orthodox economic policies of its predecessor. In contrast with the previous fifteen years there was success, in spite of many difficulties. Advance in the stabilisation front required reforms and institutional building efforts that brought very important changes and a sound foundation for future economic expansion. But effective growth performance over the period continued to be mediocre: between 1994 and 2004 per capita GDP (gross domestic product) increased an average of only 0.9 percent yearly. Together with structural fiscal difficulties, low economic growth imposed strict constraints on policies seeking to alleviate the country’s severe social imbalanceseconomic history, stabilization, Brazil