Forecasting the Influence of Climate Change on Agroecosystem Services: Potential Impacts on Honey Yields in a Small-Island Developing State

Global change poses numerous challenges to developing nations and small-island developing states (SIDSs). Among these are the effects of climate change on honeybees’ provisioning services including honey production. Here we ask two questions. First, what is the relationship between honey yield and climate in a tropical environment? Second, how does yield vary spatially under current climate and future scenarios of climate change? Focusing on the island of Puerto Rico, we developed an ensemble of bioclimatic models that were used in a geographical information system to identify suitable areas for honey production under current and future scenarios of climate change. A comparison between contemporary (1998–2005) and historical (1910–1974) honey yield data revealed a reduction in average yield, including variability, over time, with current yields averaging 5.3 L/colony. Three bioclimatic variables were retained by at least three models: temperature seasonality and mean temperature of the wettest quarter were negatively correlated with honey yields whereas precipitation of the wettest month was positively correlated. The four models varied in terms of their predictions but showed that both honey yields and areas suitable for honey production will decrease under scenarios of climate change. These results illustrate the possible impacts of climate change on honey and ultimately honeybees

STOP ODIO. Instagram como punto de encuentro ético para la detección y análisis de delitos de odio en redes sociales

Este proyecto de innovación docente busca crear un espacio en las asignaturas y en redes sociales, donde el alumnado pudiera detectar, analizar y denunciar delitos de odio, producidos y publicados en esas mismas redes sociales. El alumnado de Grado sería de Periodismo, Publicidad y Relaciones Públicas, y Comunicación Audiovisual, tanto de asignaturas obligatorias (Teoría de la Información, Ética y Deontología Profesional), como de asignaturas optativas (Comunicación Política, Comunicación y Género)

From <i>p</i>-Values to Posterior Probabilities of Null Hypotheses

Minimum Bayes factors are commonly used to transform two-sided p-values to lower bounds on the posterior probability of the null hypothesis, in particular the bound −e·p·log(p). This bound is easy to compute and explain; however, it does not behave as a Bayes factor. For example, it does not change with the sample size. This is a very serious defect, particularly for moderate to large sample sizes, which is precisely the situation in which p-values are the most problematic. In this article, we propose adjusting this minimum Bayes factor with the information to approximate an exact Bayes factor, not only when p is a p-value but also when p is a pseudo-p-value. Additionally, we develop a version of the adjustment for linear models using the recent refinement of the Prior-Based BIC

The role of coral colony health state in the recovery of lesions

Coral disease literature has focused, for the most part, on the etiology of the more than 35 coral afflictions currently described. Much less understood are the factors that underpin the capacity of corals to regenerate lesions, including the role of colony health. This lack of knowledge with respect to the factors that influence tissue regeneration significantly limits our understanding of the impact of diseases at the colony, population, and community level. In this study, we experimentally compared tissue regeneration capacity of diseased versus healthy fragments of Gorgonia ventalina colonies at 5 m and 12 m of depth. We found that the initial health state of colonies (i.e., diseased or healthy) had a significant effect on tissue regeneration (healing). All healthy fragments exhibited full recovery regardless of depth treatment, while diseased fragments did not. Our results suggest that being diseased or healthy has a significant effect on the capacity of a sea fan colony to repair tissue, but that environmental factors associated with changes in depth, such as temperature and light, do not. We conclude that disease doesn’t just compromise vital functions such as growth and reproduction in corals but also compromises their capacity to regenerate tissue and heal lesions

An automatic and proper Bayesian estimation analysis of 2×2 contingency tables with one and two fixed margins

Bayesian Methods, Contingency Tables, Exponential Family, Jeffreys Prior,

High Rate of Infection by Only Oncogenic Human Papillomavirus in Amerindians

The role of HPV type distribution on the disparity of cervical cancer (CC) incidence between human populations remains unknown. The incidence of CC in the Amazonas State of Venezuela is higher than the national average. In this study, we determined the diversity of known HPV types (the viral agent of CC) in Amerindian and mestizo women living in the Venezuelan Amazonas State. Understanding the ecological diversity of HPV in populations undergoing lifestyle transformations has important implication on public health measures for cervical cancer prevention.Human papillomavirus (HPV), an etiological agent of cervical cancer (CC), has infected humans since ancient times. Amerindians are the furthest migrants out of Africa, and they reached the Americas more than 14,000 years ago. Some groups still remain isolated, and some migrate to towns, forming a gradient spanning urbanization. We hypothesized that, by virtue of their history, lifestyle, and isolation from the global society, remote Amerindian women have lower HPV diversity than do urban women (Amerindian or mestizo). Here we determined the diversity of the 25 most relevant cervical HPV types in 82 Amerindians spanning urbanization (low, medium, and high, consistent with the exposure to urban lifestyles of the town of Puerto Ayacucho in the Venezuelan Amazonas State), and in 29 urban mestizos from the town. Cervical, anal, oral, and introitus samples were taken, and HPVs were typed using reverse DNA hybridization. A total of 23 HPV types were detected, including 11 oncogenic or high-risk types, most associated with CC. Cervical HPV prevalence was 75%, with no differences by group, but Amerindians from low and medium urbanization level had significantly lower HPV diversity than mestizos did. In Amerindians, but not in mestizos, infections by only high-risk HPVs were higher than coinfections or by exclusively low-risk HPVs. Cervical abnormalities only were observed in Amerindians (9/82), consistent with their high HPV infection. The lower cervical HPV diversity in more isolated Amerindians is consistent with their lower exposure to the global pool, and transculturation to urban lifestyles could have implications on HPV ecology, infection, and virulence

Les mini-vidéos sur les réseaux sociaux comme outils pédagogiques créatifs pour l'égalité

Plan Estratégico del Vicerrectorado de Calidad de la UCM 2015-2019El proyecto de innovación docente 2020-2021, titulado Minivídeos en redes sociales como herramientas didácticas creativas para la igualdad, ha aunado un equipo interdisciplinar de profesorado UCM y externo, PAS, alumnado de máster y doctorado, y becarios de colaboración (máster) y FPI (doctorado). Todos sus integrantes son expertos docentes y/o investigadores en redes sociales y durante la crisis de la COVID-19, se han adaptado perfectamente a la docencia virtual online. En este nuevo entorno obligatorio, que parece ser el futuro inmediato a corto plazo, se ha detectado el crecimiento del uso de las redes sociales de fotografía y vídeo corto: Instagram y TikTok. Este proyecto quiso aprovechar esos datos para acercarse al alumnado y a su gusto por el visionado de vídeos cortos, píldoras audiovisuales o minivídeos, para promover una primera digitalización de las asignaturas de los profesores que forman parte del proyecto.The 2020-2021 teaching innovation project, entitled Minivideos in social networks as creative teaching tools for equality, has brought together an interdisciplinary team of UCM and external teaching staff, PAS, master's and doctoral students, and collaboration scholarship holders (master's) and FPI (doctorate). All its members are teaching and/or research experts in social networks and during the COVID-19 crisis, they have adapted perfectly to online virtual teaching. In this new mandatory environment, which seems to be the immediate future in the short term, the growth in the use of social networks for photography and short video has been detected: Instagram and TikTok. This project wanted to take advantage of this data to get closer to the students and their taste for watching short videos, audiovisual pills or mini-videos, to promote an initial digitalisation of the subjects of the teachers who are part of the project.Le projet d'innovation pédagogique 2020-2021, intitulé Minivídeos en redes sociales como herramientas didácticas creativas para la igualdad, a réuni une équipe interdisciplinaire composée d'enseignants de l'UCM et externes, de PAS, d'étudiants de master et de doctorat, ainsi que de boursiers de collaboration (master) et de FPI (doctorat). Tous ses membres sont des experts de l'enseignement et/ou des chercheurs en réseaux sociaux et, pendant la crise du COVID-19, ils se sont parfaitement adaptés à l'enseignement virtuel en ligne. Dans ce nouvel environnement obligatoire, qui semble être l'avenir immédiat à court terme, on a détecté la croissance de l'utilisation des réseaux sociaux de photographie et de vidéo courte : Instagram et TikTok. Ce projet voulait profiter de ces données pour se rapprocher des élèves et de leur goût pour le visionnage de courtes vidéos, de pilules audiovisuelles ou de mini-vidéos, afin de promouvoir une première numérisation des sujets des enseignants qui font partie du projet.Depto. de Periodismo y Nuevos MediosFac. de Ciencias de la InformaciónFALSEVicerrectorado de Calidad, Universidad Complutense de Madridsubmitte