Consumo de aceite de oliva e incidencia de diabetes mellitus en la cohorte española seguimiento Universidad de Navarra (SUN) Olive oil consumption and incidence of diabetes mellitus, in the Spanish sun cohort

Introducción: Se conoce el beneficio de la dieta mediterránea sobre los factores de riesgo cardiovascular y sobre el metabolismo hidrocarbonado. No está claro sin embargo, el papel particular del aceite de oliva sobre la incidencia de diabetes mellitus tipo 2. Objetivo: Evaluar el efecto específico del consumo de aceite de oliva sobre el riesgo de desarrollar diabetes mellitus tipo 2 en la cohorte española Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra. Métodos: Un total de 10.491 participantes seguidos durante una media de 5,7 años fueron incluidos en el análisis. La valoración dietética inicial se realizó mediante un cuestionario previamente validado y con un total de 136 ítems. El evento de interés fueron los nuevos casos de diabetes incidente diagnosticados a los participantes durante el seguimiento mediante evaluaciones repetidas cada dos años. Se estimaron los riesgos relativos (odds ratios) de diabetes asociados a cada nivel de consumo de aceite de oliva (quintiles) mediante modelos de regresión logística para ajustar por posibles factores de confusión. Resultados: La edad media fue de 38,9 + 11,4 años, con un índice de masa corporal de 23,8 + 3,4 kg/m². Se detectaron durante el seguimiento 42 nuevos casos de diabetes mellitus tipo 2. No hubo relación estadísticamente significativa entre el consumo de aceite de oliva y el riesgo de diabetes. La odds ratio ajustada para el quintil superior (vs.el inferior) fue de 1,11 (IC 95% 0,45-2,78) (p de tendencia = 0,32). Conclusiones: No hemos encontrado asociación entre el consumo de aceite de oliva y la incidencia de diabetes tipo 2 en esta cohorte. La ausencia de asociación encontrada se podría atribuir a los pocos casos incidentes en una población sana y con pocos factores de riesgo. Probablemente sea necesario un seguimiento más prolongado de una cohorte Mediterránea con mayor riesgo basal para poder evaluar esta asociación.Introduction: The beneficial effects of the overall Mediterranean dietary pattern on cardiovascular risk factors and on carbohydrate metabolism are well known; however, it is unclear whether the consumption of olive oil in particular is able to reduce the incidence of type 2 diabetes. Objective: To evaluate the specific effect of olive oil consumption on the risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus in a large Spanish cohort (the SUN Project). Methods: We followed up 10,491 participants for a median of 5,7 years. Habitual diet was assessed at baseline with a semi-quantitative 136-item food-frequency questionnaire previously validated in Spain. The outcome of interest was incident type 2 diabetes diagnosed by a physician and confirmed by review of a medical report. The multivariate-adjusted odds ratios for incident type 2 diabetes for each of the 4 upper quintiles of olive oil consumption using the lowest quintile as the reference were assessed using logistic regression models. Results: At baseline mean age was 38,9 + 11,38 year with a BMI of 23,8 + 3,41 kg/m². Forty two new cases of diabetes mellitus were diagnosed during follow-up. The adjusted odds ratio for the highest vs. the lowest quintile of consumption of olive oil was 1.11 (95% CI: 0.45-2.78; p for trend = 0.32). Conclusions: We found no association between olive oil consumption and the incidence of type 2 diabetes. The lack of association could be attributed to the small number of observed incident cases of diabetes. Further studies in Mediterranean countries with a longer follow-up and a higher baseline risk are needed to evaluate this association

Modeling adaptive forest management of a semi-arid Mediterranean Aleppo pine plantation

Adaptive forest management (AFM) aims to adapt a forest to water availability by means of an artificial regulation of the forest structure and density. Areas vulnerable to water scarcity situations, such as the Mediterranean region, might require AFM to optimize the hydrological cycle under normal and future global change conditions. This study uses the process based model (PBM) BIOME-BGC to predict the effects of AFM in an unmanaged semi-arid Mediterranean Aleppo pine plantation. At the same time, it seeking to increase the spatially explicit information to initialize the model runs. To this end, the model has been slightly modified, and canopy average specific leaf area and canopy water interception coefficient have both been introduced as functions of canopy coverage, which was obtained using airborne laser scanning (LiDAR) technology. The model was then calibrated and evaluated using sap flow, soil moisture and throughfall field data obtained during one year from three forest coverages (85, 73 and 26%, respectively). Calibration and evaluation of the model show acceptable accuracy, with the Nash Sutcliffe coefficient ranging between 0.39 and 0.76 for calibration and 0.35 and 0.75 for evaluation. The model was then applied to analyze and predict the need for forest management in a Mediterranean public forest indicated a possible optimization of the hydrological cycle to establish a new equilibrium between blue and green water. This new scenario reduced water interception and plant transpiration (green water), and increased water runoff and/or percolation (blue water).The authors want to thank the associate editor and the anonymous reviewers, not only for the attention they paid to our work, but also for the very precious suggestions they provided. This study is a component of three research projects: "CGL2011-28776-C02-02, HYDROSIL" and CGL2014-58127-C3-2, Silwamed, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and FEDER funds, and Determination of hydrologic and forest recovery factors in Mediterranean forests and their social perception, led by Dr. E. Rojas and supported by the Ministry of Environment, Rural and Marine Affairs. The authors are grateful to the Valencia Regional Government (CMAAUV, Generalitat Valenciana) and the VAERSA staff for their support in allowing the use of the La Hunde experimental forest and for their assistance in carrying out the fieldwork. The fourth author thanks the Mundus 17 Program, coordinated by the University of Porto-Portugal.González-Sanchis, MDC.; Campo García, ADD.; Molina Herrera, A.; Fernandes, TJG. (2015). Modeling adaptive forest management of a semi-arid Mediterranean Aleppo pine plantation. Ecological Modelling. 308(24):34-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.04.002S34443082