IMPACT OF PRODUCTION CHANGES ON INCOME AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

Regional and farm-level analyses are conducted to evaluate the economic and environmental impacts of water quality protection policies. The regional analysis evaluates reducing nitrate losses by reducing per-acre nitrogen use, taxing nitrogen use, taxing irrigation water use, and reducing furrow irrigation. Incentives to convert furrow systems to sprinkler and LEPA systems outperform the other policies. The firm-level analysis derives farm plans that limit the expected values of environmental indices for nitrates and pesticides, and reduce the probability that specified targets will be exceeded. The analysis demonstrates the importance of evaluating environmental risk as stochastic process.converting irrigation systems, environmental risk, environmental risk models, regional environmental analysis, taxing irrigation water, taxing nitrogen use, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries,

IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS: AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE

Recent declines in irrigated acres in the High Plains and shifts to crops which use less water are likely to continue, with an eventual return to dryland production in many regions. Declining groundwater levels and depletion of the Ogallala aquifer are secondary causes of this decline. Primary causes are high irrigation costs and low profitability of irrigated crops relative to dryland crops produced within and outside the region. Continued low commodity prices will speed the transition to dryland production as many current irrigators are unable to replace fully depreciated irrigation systems. Adoption of new technology will slow but not reverse the reduction in irrigated production.Crop Production/Industries,

A DISCUSSION OF WATER QUALITY AND FOOD SAFETY ISSUES

Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

A RETIREMENT INCOME SIMULATION MODEL FOR FARM OPERATORS

Farm Management,

A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF WATER SAVINGS FROM ADVANCED IRRIGATION TECHNOLOGY

A computerized grain sorghum plant growth model is combined with recursive programming to analyze the potential irrigation water savings from adopting irrigation scheduling and low pressure center pivot irrigation technology. Results indicate that irrigation pumping can be reduced with increased yields and net returns by adopting low energy precision application (LEPA) irrigation systems. Variations in input and output prices affect optimal irrigation quantities for low pressure irrigation systems less than for high pressure systems.Crop Production/Industries,

USE OF PROBABILISTIC CASH FLOWS IN ANALYZING INVESTMENTS UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY

Risk and Uncertainty,

A COMPARISON OF OBJECTIVE FUNCTION STRUCTURES USED IN A RECURSIVE GOAL PROGRAMMING-SIMULATIONS MODEL OF FARM GROWTH

Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

SIMULATION OF SOIL WATER-CROP YIELD SYSTEMS: THE POTENTIAL FOR ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Crop Production/Industries,

COTTON CULTIVAR, PLANTING, IRRIGATING, AND HARVESTING DECISIONS UNDER RISK

Producers in southwest Oklahoma lack adequate information about optimal planting decisions for cotton. This study uses a cotton growth simulation model to evaluate alternative cultivar, planting date, irrigation, and harvest choices. Effects of using information about soil moisture at reproduction and revenue loss at harvest in making cultivar and planting data decisions are evaluated. Using soil temperature information to plant at an early date produced high net revenue some years, but reduced mean net revenue and increased risk. Producers maximizing expected net revenue should plant a short-season cultivar in late May and use soil moisture information to schedule irrigation at reproduction.Crop Production/Industries,

A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF WATER QUALITY POLICIES ON IRRIGATION INVESTMENT AND CROP CHOICE DECISIONS

A dynamic model is developed to analyze farmers' irrigation investment and crop choice decisions under alternative water quality protection policies. The model is applied to an empirical example in the Oklahoma High Plains. The choices of crops and irrigation systems and the resulting levels of irrigation, income, and nitrogen runoff and percolation are simulated over a ten-year period. An effluent tax on nitrogen runoff and percolation is shown to be effective in reducing nitrate pollution. The efficacy of cost sharing in adopting modern irrigation technologies and restrictions on irrigation water use depends on soil type. A tax on nitrogen use is shown to be the least effective policy.Crop selection, Dynamic optimization, Irrigation investment, Water quality, Crop Production/Industries,