The fundamental and non-fundamental components of stock prices: The role of time-varying expected inflation

I derive testable implications of fundamental and non-fundamental components of stock prices. In order to control for the role of time-varying expected inflation and to be able to perform reasonable empirical tests, I use a nominal (rather than a real) interpretation of the present-value model (PVM), whereby nominal interest rates approximate expected inflation. I conjecture that the fundamental and non-fundamental components represent the permanent and temporary components of stock prices, respectively. A series of cointegration analysis over the annual period 1871–1997 confirms my conjecture for the model with time-varying expected inflation. Various fundamental and non-fundamental exclusion tests indicate that both excess returns and expected inflation are price fundamentals. When both of these factors are present in the fundamental component, the non-fundamental component of stock prices exhibits little deviation from zero. However, the evidence in support of the inflation-augmented PVM seems somewhat sensitive to certain model specifications (notably, lag structures). The Hansen-Johansen recursive analysis reveals that the parameters in the non-fundamental component lack stability in the post-World War II period. Results from subsample analysis verify my suspicion of a significant regime shift. In particular, the inflation augmented-PVM holds only for the pre-WW II period. This implication of excess price volatility, as represented by the augmented PVM, stands up to alternative specifications such as measurements of variables and data frequency. Such evidence is clearly in line with Shiller\u27s (1981) belief in market irrationality and also consistent with Campbell\u27s (1991) conclusion that evidence of market predictability is “overwhelming” only during the post-1950s

Market Interdependence In The Pacific Basin Region: Internal Drives And External Influences

This paper examines equity market linkages in the Pacific Basin (PB) region and their relations to other mature markets and also assesses the response of these markets to major global events. Results from weekly data for market pairs and for the region as a whole consistently suggest that markets in the PB region are internally interdependent and exhibit significant external relations mainly with the US (rather than Japan). The presence of potent market linkages seems inconsistent with market efficiency provided that implied trading rules yield risk-adjusted excess returns. However, the results further indicate that PB market linkages, both internally within the region and externally with the US, have endured considerable weaknesses particularly since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack. Such recent weakening of equity market linkages may have strengthened diversification benefits available to US investors from investing in the PB region. We also obtain evidence indicating that three main factors significantly explain the differing degrees of market linkages across countries in the PB region; namely, exchange-rate volatility, equity market volatility and money-market interlink

International asset returns and exchange rates

We present a consumption-based international asset-pricing model to study global equity premiums, the US riskfree rate and the cross section of international asset returns. The model entails idiosyncratic, country-specific consumption risk, which helps explain the magnitude of global equity premiums. It also features country-specific habit formation, which helps explain the level of the interest rate on the US short-term Treasury bills traded by domestic and international investors. We find that the model explains approximately 40-50% of the cross section of currency and equity premiums as well as expected returns from value and growth portfolios of at least a dozen countries. Changes in real exchange rates are responsible for explaining approximately half of the cross section of international asset returns

Consumption habit and international stock returns

We use the consumption-based asset pricing model with habit formation to study the predictability and cross-section of returns from the international equity markets. We find that the predictability of returns from many developed countries' equity markets is explained in part by changing prices of risks associated with consumption relative to habit at the world as well as local levels. We also provide an exploratory investigation of the cross-sectional implications of the model under the complete world market integration hypothesis and find that the model performs mildly better than the traditional consumption-based model. the unconditional and conditional world CAPMs and a three-factor international asset pricing model. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved