NATURAL RESOURCE RELIANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN GHANA, THE EFFECT OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTION

학위논문 (석사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 국제대학원 국제학과(국제지역학전공), 2020. 8. 안재빈.볼 때, 풍부한 천연자원을 가진 나라들은 부유할 것이라고 짐작할 수 있겠으나 몇몇 학자들은 기존 연구와는 다르게 천연 자원이 풍부한 국가일수록 경제성장이 둔해지는 현상, 즉 자원의 저주 현상이 발생함을 밝혀냈다 (Sachs & Warner, 1995).Gylfason과 Zoega (2001)는 연구를 통해 천연자원이 경제성장에 미치는 영향을 방해하는 대표적인 원인으로 네덜란드 병, 자원의 국제가격 변동, 지대추구 행위, 제도적 기반의 부족, 비효율적 투자 이렇게 5가지의 원인을 꼽았다. 이 연구는 천연자원(석유)과 국가의 경제성장간의 관계를 분석한다. 고정 효과 패널회귀 모형을 통해 1996년부터 2018년 가나는 2011년에 석유 상업 탐사를 시작했다.새로운 석유수출국으로서, 가나가 석유수입을 더 잘 관리하기 위해 의존할 수 있는 이 연구의 의미와 교훈이 있다.까지의 분석기간 동안 유가와 경제성장에 정적 상관관계가 존재함을 밝혀내는 데, 이는 기존 자원의 저주 연구결과와는 상반되는 결과이다. 결과적으로 제도적 기반을 강화하는 것이 자원이 풍부한 아프리카 국가들의 사회적, 경제적 능력을 배양하는 데 핵심적이라고 이 연구는 진단한다.Intuitively, one would expect that countries that have abundant natural resources would be wealthy; however, several researchers have found compelling evidence of an adverse effect of abundant natural resources on economic growth. (Sachs &Warner 1995) often called the resource curse. Gylfason and Zoega, (2001), identified five channels that impede natural resources from impacting on economic growth: price volatility, Dutch disease, lack of quality institutions, rent seeking, and unproductive investments from resource revenues. This study investigates the relationship between Natural resource reliance (Oil) and economic growth. Employing a panel fixed analysis from 1996-2018. Ghana started commercial exploration of Oil in 2011.As a new Oil exporting country, there are implications and lessons from this study that Ghana can rely on, to better manage Oil revenues. The study finds a positive strong relationship between Oil prices and economic growth, consequently, the study argues that strengthened institutional framework is imperative for social and economic performance of resource rich African countries.CHAPTER 1: GENERAL INTRODUCTION 9 1.0. Introduction 9 1.1. Background of the study 9 1.2. Statement of the Problem 13 1.3. Motivation of the Research 14 1.4. Research Objectives and Questions 16 1.5. Importance of the Topic 17 1.6. Limitation of the research 17 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW 19 2.0. Introduction 19 2.1. Definition of main Concepts 19 2.2. Natural resources and economic growth 19 2.3. The Institutionalist Approach: 21 2.4. Mainstream economists versus Structuralists 23 2.5. Transmission channels 28 2.6. Natural Resources and Economic growth 33 CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY, ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS 37 Part I: Methodology of the research 37 3.1.1. Source of Data 37 3.1.2. Description of the Variables 37 3.1.3. Estimation model 38 Part 2: Empirical Analysis of Effect natural resources on Economic Growth 40 3.2.1. Regression results of GDP Per Capita growth on all regressors 40 3.2.2. Regression results of GDP Per Capita growth on fuel exports and control variables 41 3.1.1. Oil prices in resource rich African Countries 47 CHAPTER FOUR: ASSESSMENT OF RESOURCE CURSE ON THE GHANAIAN ECONOMY 53 4.0. Introduction 53 Part 1: Overview of the Ghanaian economy 53 4.1.1. Evolution of Ghana GDP Growth 53 4.1.2. Drivers of Economic Growth in Ghana 56 4.1.3. Performance of Ghana economy from 1960s 59 4.1.4. Ghana sector specific policies & development plans 65 Part II: Investigating the resource curse channel, the case of Ghana 79 4.2.1. Dutch disease channel 79 4.2.2. Rent seeking & Institutional Quality channel 82 CHAPTER FIVE: POLICY RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION 84 5.0. Introduction 84 5.1. Comparative Analysis of Key policies in selected Advanced resource exporting countries 84 5.2.1. Policy recommendations 89 5.2.2. Conclusion 90 APPENDIX 92 REFERENCES 95Maste