Applying stress-testing on value at risk (VaR) methodologies

In recent years, Value at Risk (VaR) methodologies, i. e., Parametric VaR, Historical Simulation and the Monte Carlo Simulation have experienced spectacular growth within the new regulatory framework which is Basle II. Moreover, complementary analyses such a Stress-testing and Back-testing have also demonstrated their usefulness for financial risk managers. In this paper, we develop an empirical Stress-Testing exercise by using two historical scenarios of crisis. In particular, we analyze the impact of the 11-S attacks (2001) and the Latin America crisis (2002) on the level of risk, previously calculated by different statistical methods. Consequently, we have selected a Spanish stock portfolio in order to focus on market risk

Neutron Repulsion

Earth is connected gravitationally, magnetically and electrically to its heat source and the source of its chemical elements - a neutron star obscured from view by waste products in the photosphere. Neutron repulsion makes the solar core like the hot filament in an incandescent light bulb. Excited neutrons are emitted from the pulsar, decay to hydrogen, and partially fuse into the helium now trapped with it in the photosphere, like a frosted light bulb. Neutron repulsion is the overlooked source of energy, the keystone of an arch that locks together many earlier, puzzling observations: 1.) Excess 136Xe accompanied primordial helium in stellar debris that formed the solar system (Fig. 1); 2.) The Sun formed on the supernova core (Fig. 2); 3.) Waste products from the pulsar pass through an iron-rich mantle, selectively carrying lighter elements and lighter isotopes of each element into the photosphere (Figs. 3-4); and 4.) Neutron repulsion triggers reactions that power the Sun and sustain life (Figs. 5-7). Neutron repulsion triggers the reactions that cause: a.) Solar luminosity, solar neutrinos, and solar-wind hydrogen and helium; b.) Formation of an inhabitable planet and evolution of life on stellar debris orbiting an ordinary-looking star; c.) Creation and destruction of chemical elements; d.) Fission or fragmentation of the cores of heavy atoms, stars and galaxies, and e.) Continuous climate change on planet Earth

Conceptual Problems with Remote Element Synthesis

The notion of remote element synthesis has recently been modified to explain the presence of nucleogenetic isotopic anomalies and decay products of short-lived nuclides by injection of a small amount of exotic nucleogenetic material. Even with this modification, remote element synthesis seems inconsistent with the following observations: Evidence of coupled variations in the chemical and isotopic compositions of the source material for meteorites. Residual coupling of chemical and isotopic heterogeneities across planetary distances in the solar system today. The mass-fractionation relationship seen across isotopes of elements in the planetary system, in the solar wind, and in solar flares. Linkage of short-lived radioactivities with isotopic anomalies and with physical properties of their host grains, as expected for early condensate of fresh stellar debris. Temporal and spatial distributions of short-lived nuclides and their decay products. Mirror-image (+ and -) isotopic anomalies in meteorite grains that sum to \u27normal\u27 isotopic ratios, as expected of unmixed products of the same nuclear reactions that produced our bulk elements. The lack of supporting evidence for \u27presolar\u27 grains or nearby stars that injected exotic material into the early solar nebula

Evaluating XMPP Communication in IEC 61499-based Distributed Energy Applications

The IEC 61499 reference model provides an international standard developed specifically for supporting the creation of distributed event-based automation systems. Functionality is abstracted into function blocks which can be coded graphically as well as via a text-based method. As one of the design goals was the ability to support distributed control applications, communication plays a central role in the IEC 61499 specification. In order to enable the deployment of functionality to distributed platforms, these platforms need to exchange data in a variety of protocols. IEC 61499 realizes the support of these protocols via "Service Interface Function Blocks" (SIFBs). In the context of smart grids and energy applications, IEC 61499 could play an important role, as these applications require coordinating several distributed control logics. Yet, the support of grid-related protocols is a pre-condition for a wide-spread utilization of IEC 61499. The eXtensible Messaging and Presence Protocol (XMPP) on the other hand is a well-established protocol for messaging, which has recently been adopted for smart grid communication. Thus, SIFBs for XMPP facilitate distributed control applications, which use XMPP for exchanging all control relevant data, being realized with the help of IEC 61499. This paper introduces the idea of integrating XMPP into SIFBs, demonstrates the prototypical implementation in an open source IEC 61499 platform and provides an evaluation of the feasibility of the result.Comment: 2016 IEEE 21st International Conference on Emerging Technologies and Factory Automation (ETFA

Earth's Heat Source - The Sun

The Sun encompasses planet Earth, supplies the heat that warms it, and even shakes it. The United Nation Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assumed that solar influence on our climate is limited to changes in solar irradiance and adopted the consensus opinion of a Hydrogen-filled Sun, the Standard Solar Model (SSM). They did not consider the alternative solar model and instead adopted another consensus opinion: Anthropogenic greenhouse gases play a dominant role in climate change. The SSM fails to explain the solar wind, solar cycles, and the empirical link of solar surface activity with Earth changing climate. The alternative solar model, that was molded from an embarrassingly large number of unexpected observations revealed by space-age measurements since 1959, explains not only these puzzles but also how closely linked interactions between the Sun and its planets and other celestial bodies induce turbulent cycles of secondary solar characteristics that significantly affect Earth climate.Comment: The way that the Sun controls Earth's climate is explained in 15 pages, 7 figures, and 56 reference

Explanatory factors of university student participation in flamenco

The present work offers a study exploring University of Seville students’ cultural participation and how often they attend live flamenco shows. Based on the statistical yearbook of this university, a sample of 452 students from different fields was selected and, by applying a questionnaire, a binomial logit model and an ordered finance model were constructed. Our empirical findings offer descriptive, explanatory and predictive statistical results regarding participation and frequency. For example, the results evidence that 43% of the University of Seville students have never attended a live flamenco show and that one of the main issues influencing attendance is human and cultural capital

Economic and financial viability plan for the enterpreneurship of a lyric theatre low-cost company: The case of Zarzuela in Spain

Taking into account that one of the major handicaps when undertaken in the cultural sector is the problem of cost and demand volatility, this paper aims to implement a viability plan for the entrepreneurship of a lyric theatre low-cost company, dedicated to Zarzuela performance, a type of Spanish music like Opera. Firstly, the cultural sector data are analysed in terms of supply and demand and secondly a viability plan is carried out for three years. According to the results it is concluded that this type of venture is very risky if you do not have grant or other financial resources, due to the variability of demand and the increase in unit costs as the artistic performance has a fixed production technology that cannot absorb the technical progress of the rest of the economy