Inversion of long-lived trace gas emissions using combined Eulerian and Lagrangian chemical transport models

Supplement related to this article is available online at: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/9887/2011/acp-11-9887-2011-supplement.zip.We present a method for estimating emissions of long-lived trace gases from a sparse global network of high-frequency observatories, using both a global Eulerian chemical transport model and Lagrangian particle dispersion model. Emissions are derived in a single step after determining sensitivities of the observations to initial conditions, the high-resolution emissions field close to observation points, and larger regions further from the measurements. This method has the several advantages over inversions using one type of model alone, in that: high-resolution simulations can be carried out in limited domains close to the measurement sites, with lower resolution being used further from them; the influence of errors due to aggregation of emissions close to the measurement sites can be minimized; assumptions about boundary conditions to the Lagrangian model do not need to be made, since the entire emissions field is estimated; any combination of appropriate models can be used, with no code modification. Because the sensitivity to the entire emissions field is derived, the estimation can be carried out using traditional statistical methods without the need for multiple steps in the inversion. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by determining global SF6 emissions using measurements from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) between 2007 and 2009. The global total and large-scale patterns of the derived emissions agree well with previous studies, whilst allowing emissions to be determined at higher resolution than has previously been possible, and improving the agreement between the modeled and observed mole fractions at some sites

Wind-induced, cross-frontal exchange on Georges Bank : a mechanism for early summer on-bank biological particle transport

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2003. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 108, C11 (2003): 8011, doi:10.1029/2002JC001358.Water exchange across the tidal-mixing front on the southern flank of Georges Bank (GB) is examined using a two-dimensional (2D) primitive equation ocean model. The model domain features a cross-frontal transect including a June 1999 hydrographic (CTD)/ADCP study made as part of the U.S. GLOBEC Northwest Atlantic/Georges Bank program. The model was initialized with temperature and salinity fields taken on the 15 June 1999 CTD section and run prognostically with tidal forcing, measured winds, and representative surface heat flux. The results show that fluctuations of wind plus tidal mixing can play the following essential role in the short-term transport of water and particles from the stratified region to the mixed region on GB in early summer, when stratification is just developing with a weak thermocline at a depth of about 10 m. First, a passing weather front drives a wind-induced on-bank Ekman transport of the upper part of the water column at the tidal-mixing front and associated particles in the surface mixed layer. Then, when the wind relaxes or changes direction, the water in the on-bank extension of the front (above the thermocline) mixes quickly through enhanced tidal motion in shallower depths of water. As a result, particles that are advected along the extended front stay in the previously well-mixed region of the bank. Surface heating tends to increase the strength of the thermocline and reduce the thickness of the surface mixed layer. This in turn accelerates the on-bank movement of the front under an easterly wind favorable for Ekman transport and thus enhances the on-bank, cross-frontal transport of particles. Since the wind-induced, cross-frontal on-bank transport of water can occur episodically during passages of meteorological fronts, these could produce a larger net cross-frontal flux than that produced by just tidal forcing on equivalent timescales. Therefore wind-induced processes can be important in the on-bank cross-frontal flux of copepods and other zooplankton species that exhibit shallow maxima in their vertical distributions over the southern flank of GB in early summer.This research was supported by the U.S. GLOBEC Northwest Atlantic/Georges Bank program through NOAA grants NA56RG0487, NA960P003, and NA960P005 to C. Chen, NOAA support to R. Schlitz, G. R. Lough, K. Smith, and J. Manning, and NSF grants OCE 96-32357, OCE 98-06379, and OCE 02-27679 to R. Beardsley

The variability of methane, nitrous oxide and sulfur hexafluoride in Northeast India

High-frequency atmospheric measurements of methane (CH[subscript 4]), nitrous oxide (N[subscript 2]O) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF[subscript 6]) from Darjeeling, India are presented from December 2011 (CH[subscript 4])/March 2012 (N[subscript 2]O and SF[subscript 6]) through February 2013. These measurements were made on a gas chromatograph equipped with a flame ionization detector and electron capture detector, and were calibrated on the Tohoku University, the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO)-98 and SIO-2005 scales for CH[subscript 4], N[subscript 2]O and SF[subscript 6], respectively. The observations show large variability and frequent pollution events in CH[subscript 4] and N[subscript 2]O mole fractions, suggesting significant sources in the regions sampled by Darjeeling throughout the year. By contrast, SF[subscript 6] mole fractions show little variability and only occasional pollution episodes, likely due to weak sources in the region. Simulations using the Numerical Atmospheric dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) particle dispersion model suggest that many of the enhancements in the three gases result from the transport of pollutants from the densely populated Indo-Gangetic Plains of India to Darjeeling. The meteorology of the region varies considerably throughout the year from Himalayan flows in the winter to the strong south Asian summer monsoon. The model is consistent in simulating a diurnal cycle in CH[subscript 4] and N[subscript 2]O mole fractions that is present during the winter but absent in the summer and suggests that the signals measured at Darjeeling are dominated by large-scale (~100 km) flows rather than local (<10 km) flows.Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science (Director's Fund)Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global ChangeMartin Family Society of Fellows for SustainabilityMIT Energy InitiativeMIT International Science and Technology InitiativeUnited States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NNX11AF17G)United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Contract RA133R09CN0062

Changing trends and emissions of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and their hydrofluorocarbon (HFCs) replacements

United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NAG5-12669)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX07AE89G)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX11AF17G)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX16AC98G

Sustained methane emissions from China after 2012 despite declining coal production and rice-cultivated area

China’s anthropogenic methane emissions are the largest of any country in the world. A recent study using atmospheric observations suggested that recent policies aimed at reducing emissions of methane due to coal production in China after 2010 had been largely ineffective. Here, based on a longer observational record and an updated modelling approach, we find a statistically significant positive linear trend (0.36 ± 0.04 ( $\pm1\sigma$ ) Tg CH _4 yr ^−2 ) in China’s methane emissions for 2010–2017. This trend was slowing down at a statistically significant rate of -0.1 ± 0.04 Tg CH _4 yr ^−3 . We find that this decrease in growth rate can in part be attributed to a decline in China’s coal production. However, coal mine methane emissions have not declined as rapidly as production, implying that there may be substantial fugitive emissions from abandoned coal mines that have previously been overlooked. We also find that emissions over rice-growing and aquaculture-farming regions show a positive trend (0.13 ± 0.05 Tg CH _4 yr ^−2 for 2010–2017) despite reports of shrinking rice paddy areas, implying potentially significant emissions from new aquaculture activities, which are thought to be primarily located on converted rice paddies

Global trends and European emissions of tetrafluoromethane (CF4), hexafluoroethane (C2F6) and octafluoropropane (C3F8)

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) are amongst the most potent greenhouse gases listed under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). With atmospheric lifetimes on the order of thousands to tens of thousands of years, PFC emissions represent a permanent alteration to the global atmosphere on human timescales. While the industries responsible for the vast majority of these emissions-aluminium smelting and semi-conductor manufacturing-have made efficiency improvements and introduced abatement measures, the global mean mole fractions of three PFCs, namely tetrafluoromethane (CF4, PFC-14), hexafluoroethane (C2F6, PFC-116) and octafluoropropane (C3F8, PFC-218), continue to grow. In this study, we update baseline growth rates using in situ high-frequency measurements from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and, using data from four European stations, estimate PFC emissions for northwest Europe. The global growth rate of CF4 decreased from 1.3 ppt yr-1 in 1979 to 0.6 ppt yr-1 around 2010 followed by a renewed steady increase to 0.9 ppt yr-1 in 2019. For C2F6, the growth rate grew to a maximum of 0.125 ppt yr-1 around 1999, followed by a decline to a minimum of 0.075 ppt yr-1 in 2009, followed by weak growth thereafter. The C3F8 growth rate was around 0.007 ppt yr-1 until the early 1990s and then quickly grew to a maximum of 0.03 ppt yr-1 in 2003-2004. Following a period of decline until 2012 to 0.015 ppt yr-1, the growth rate slowly increased again to ∼ 0.017 ppt yr-1 in 2019. We used an inverse modelling framework to infer PFC emissions for northwest Europe. No statistically significant trend in regional emissions was observed for any of the PFCs assessed. For CF4, European emissions in early years were linked predominantly to the aluminium industry. However, we link large emissions in recent years to a chemical manufacturer in northwest Italy. Emissions of C2F6 are linked to a range of sources, including a semi-conductor manufacturer in Ireland and a cluster of smelters in Germany's Ruhr valley. In contrast, northwest European emissions of C3F8 are dominated by a single source in northwest England, raising the possibility of using emissions from this site for a tracer release experiment

The increasing atmospheric burden of the greenhouse gas sulfur hexafluoride (SF&lt;sub&gt;6&lt;/sub&gt;)

We report a 40-year history of SF6 atmospheric mole fractions measured at the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) monitoring sites, combined with archived air samples, to determine emission estimates from 1978 to 2018. Previously we reported a global emission rate of 7.3±0.6 Gg yr-1 in 2008 and over the past decade emissions have continued to increase by about 24% to 9.04±0.35 Gg yr-1 in 2018. We show that changing patterns in SF6 consumption from developed (Kyoto Protocol Annex-1) to developing countries (non-Annex-1) and the rapid global expansion of the electric power industry, mainly in Asia, have increased the demand for SF6-insulated switchgear, circuit breakers, and transformers. The large bank of SF6 sequestered in this electrical equipment provides a substantial source of emissions from maintenance, replacement, and continuous leakage. Other emissive sources of SF6 occur from the magnesium, aluminium, and electronics industries as well as more minor industrial applications. More recently, reported emissions, including those from electrical equipment and metal industries, primarily in the Annex-1 countries, have declined steadily through substitution of alternative blanketing gases and technological improvements in less emissive equipment and more efficient industrial practices. Nevertheless, there are still demands for SF6 in Annex-1 countries due to economic growth, as well as continuing emissions from older equipment and additional emissions from newly installed SF6-insulated electrical equipment, although at low emission rates. In addition, in the non-Annex-1 countries, SF6 emissions have increased due to an expansion in the growth of the electrical power, metal, and electronics industries to support their continuing development. There is an annual difference of 2.5-5 Gg yr-1 (1990-2018) between our modelled top-down emissions and the UNFCCC-reported bottom-up emissions (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), which we attempt to reconcile through analysis of the potential contribution of emissions from the various industrial applications which use SF6. We also investigate regional emissions in East Asia (China, S. Korea) and western Europe and their respective contributions to the global atmospheric SF6 inventory. On an average annual basis, our estimated emissions from the whole of China are approximately 10 times greater than emissions from western Europe. In 2018, our modelled Chinese and western European emissions accounted for ∼36% and 3.1 %, respectively, of our global SF6 emissions estimate.NASA (Grant NAG5-12669, NNX07AE89G and NNX11AF17G)NOAA (Contract RA-133R-15-CN-0008

The Non-existence of the Labor Demand/Supply Diagram, and Other Theorems of Institutional Economics

The most famous and influential diagram in modern (neoclassical) labor economics is the model of wage determination by supply and demand. Using concepts and ideas from institutional economics, I argue that the theory of a perfectly competitive labor market is logically contradictory and, hence, the demand/supply diagram cannot exist on the plane of pure theory. Four other fundamental theorems concerning labor markets are also derived, as are implications about the theoretical foundation of the field of industrial relations and the economic evaluation of labor and employment policy. In this article I accomplish four things of significance. The first is to demonstrate that the core diagram of neoclassical labor economics - the diagram of wage determination by demand and supply (D/S) - does not have logical coherence and thus has no existence on the plane of pure theory. The second is to deduce this conclusion using a core concept of institutional economics (i.e., transaction cost), thus demonstrating that the institutional approach to labor economics has theoretical explanatory power. The third is to use the transaction cost idea to also deduce four fundamental theorems concerning labor markets and wage determination. The fourth is to identify the core theoretical foundation of the field of industrial relations. This discussion also yields important implications for the economic evaluation of labor and employment policy, as well as interesting insights on the history of thought in labor economics. Working Paper 07-2