System Development and Risk Propagation in Systems-of-Systems

Proceedings Paper (for Acquisition Research Program)The emphasis of the Department of Defense on capability-based acquisition has led to the simultaneous development of systems that must eventually interact within a system-of-systems. Thus, system development and acquisition processes encounter interdependencies that generate complexity and risk. The authors'' prior work has developed a Computational Exploratory Model to simulate the development processes of these complex networks of systems intended for a system-of-systems capability. The model''s goal is to understand the impact of system-specific risk and system interdependencies on development time. The progress documented in this paper focuses on the quantification of risk propagation and the impact of network topologies on the propagation of disruptions. The improved model enables trade studies that differentiate the effectiveness of alternate configurations of constituent systems and that quantify the impact of varying levels of interdependencies on the timely completion of a project that aims to achieve a desired capability level.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research ProgramApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Capability and Development Time Trade-off Analysis in Systems-of-Systems

Symposium Presentation (for Acquisition Research Program)Symposium PresentationAcquisition Research ProgramApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Acquisition Management for Systems-of-systems: Exploratory Model Development and Experimentation

Proceedings Paper (for Acquisition Research Program)In recent years, the Department of Defense (DoD) has placed a growing emphasis on the pursuit of agile capabilities via net-enabled operations. In this setting, systems are increasingly required to interoperate along several dimensions. Yet, the manner in which components of these ''system-of-systems'' (SoS) are acquired (designed, developed, tested and fielded) has not kept pace with the shifts in operational doctrine. Acquisition programs have struggled with complexities in both program management and engineering design. We have developed a conceptual model for pre-acquisition and acquisition strategy in an SoS environment and have implemented it in an exploratory, dynamic model. The model allows acquisition professionals to develop intuition for procuring and deploying system-of-systems by providing a venue for experimentation through which they can develop insights that will underpin successful acquisition of SoS-oriented defense capabilities. This paper presents example studies that demonstrate the capabilities of the dynamic model and highlight the importance of project characteristics. Specifically, we investigate the impact of SoS attributes''requirement interdependency, project risk, and span-of-control of SoS managers and engineers''on the completion time of SoS projects.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research ProgramApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Acquisition Management for Systems-of-Systems: Risk Dynamics and Exploratory Model Experimentation

Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Progra

Concurrent aircraft design and trip assignment under uncertainty as a system of systems problem

Better techniques for reducing operating costs of on-demand air service providers are continuously investigated in the field of operations research. Problem formulations and algorithms that reduce computational time are considered to solve the resource allocation, trip assignment, crew assignment, or maintenance scheduling problems. Efficient tools to solve these problems are especially critical for on-demand air service providers, who operate in an uncertain environment with demand changing daily and who need to generate high quality, feasible solutions to these allocation problems. Similarly, designing better and more efficient aircraft – better fuel consumption, lower emissions, etc. – is the goal of aircraft manufacturers. This can take the shape of better computational tools to reduce designing and testing costs or better technologies to increase aircraft performance and efficiency. This study investigates the issues that arise from combining these fields and the interactions of discipline specific variables and their effects on the operations of on-demand air transportation. Operations are a collection of independently-operating entities (aircraft, airports, maintenance facilities, etc, if appropriate) that provide a capability (on-demand air transportation). Because this is a collection of independently-operating entities, the problem has features of a system of systems. The work presented here considers a series of problems that capture the basic characteristics of aircraft design and resource allocation and presents an approach for the formulation and solution to this multidisciplinary design problem as a single problem. Because uncertainty is an important aspect of on-demand service, it is included in the problem formulation of this research. This is a departure from past representations that consider the solution to allocation problems and the solution to aircraft design problems separately

Capability and Development Risk Management in System-of-Systems Architectures: A Portfolio Approach to Decision-Making

Proceedings Paper (for Acquisition Research Program)In a capability-centered acquisition paradigm, with many interacting and interdependent systems, new approaches are needed for addressing the architecting and acquisition of individual systems to achieve capability targets. Prior research work has explored the use of a Computational Exploratory Model (CEM; Mane & DeLaurentis, 2011) and a Markov network model (Mane, DeLaurentis, & Frazho, 2011) to evaluate complex development networks of system-of-systems (SoS) architectures. The present paper complements this line of work with a portfolio management approach as a decision tool in the acquisition and integration of systems within an SoS context. The approach leverages potential SoS-level capability gains from the integration of individual systems against cost and developmental risks due to system interdependencies. An example application using the Littoral Combat Ship is provided to demonstrate the approach. Congruence of the method in relation to potential benefits of system vendor-level competition in light of open architecture (OA) considerations is also addressed.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research ProgramApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

System Development and Risk Propagation in Systems-of-Systems

Symposium Presentation (for Acquisition Research Program)Symposium PresentationNaval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research ProgramApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Capability and Development Risk Management in System-of-Systems Architectures: A Portfolio Approach to Decision-Making

Symposium Presentation (for Acquisition Research Program)symposium presentationNaval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research ProgramApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited