Solsjenitsyn, stalinismen og oktoberrevolutionen

Solsjenitsyn, stalinismen og oktoberrevolutione

The first occurrence of a toxodont (Mammalia, Notoungulata) in the United States

This is the publisher's version, also available electronically from http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02724634.2012.711405#.U1qJK4UvDGJ.Toxodonts were a group of large-sized notoungulates of South American origin. They were diverse and widespread in South America in deposits ranging in age from late Oligocene to late Pleistocene. Sparse remains have been found from the Pleistocene of isolated regions of Central America. All of the Central American specimens have been referred to the genus Mixotoxodon (Van Frank, 1950). They were not previously known north of the southern Mexican states of Michoacan and Veracruz, except for an unconfirmed report of an occurrence in Tamaulipas (Arroyo-Cabrales et al., 2010). Here we report the occurrence of a single toxodont tooth, a left upper third molar, from late Pleistocene deposits in Harris County, Texas (30◦N). This is the first record of toxodonts, or any notoungulate, in the United States and extends the geographic range of this group 1600 km north of their previously known localities at Hihuitlán, Michoacan (18◦52' 3"0 N, 103◦24' 14 "W) and La Estribera, Veracruz (18◦07 '01.27" N, 94◦53 '15.59W) (Polaco et al., 2004) to latitude 30◦N

Management Guidelines for Patients with Thyroid Nodules and Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: The American Thyroid Association Guidelines Taskforce

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/63263/1/thy.2006.16.109.pd

Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender–career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists’ forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data