The Sensitivity of Econometric Model Fit under Different Distributional Shapes

Answers to many empirical economic questions typically involve quantifying the relationship between a set of explanatory variables and an outcome of interest. Such analyses provide useful statistics (e.g., marginal effects, treatment effects) or allow for meaningful predictions. Depending on the question, economists may rely on econometric models to provide additional information, namely the entire density of a random variable, in order to use different moments of the distribution or accurately capture tails of the distribution. This study examines the ability of several different econometric models to explain the distribution of an outcome. Using a Monte Carlo experiment, I evaluate different economic approaches that are frequently used by economists to deal with distributions that are positive, skewed and long tailed. Each econometric model is then evaluated for its performance in estimating the expected outcome and fitting the distribution particularly in the tails. The distribution of future medical care expenditure is used throughout the paper to exemplify how the shape of the distribution can affect optimal behavior, such as the purchase of health insurance, when future medical care expenses are uncertain

Nudge interventions to reduce fish sauce consumption in Thailand.

High sodium consumption is one of the four major risk factors contributing to non-communicable diseases around the world. Thailand has one of the highest rates of sodium consumption, with fish sauce being one of the main sources. The aim of this study was to examine whether changes in the micro-environment factors can affect fish sauce consumption behavior in a university setting in Thailand. We implemented four interventions (with one control) in five canteens across a Thai university. The study design was a Latin square, where the five canteens were randomized over five weeks to implement four interventions plus a control. Our interventions included behavior-oriented, cognitive-oriented, and affective-oriented nudges aimed to reduce the amount of fish sauce people add to their noodles during lunchtime at the university canteens. Results indicate that a simple change in how fish sauce was served can reduce fish sauce consumption. Serving fish sauce in a bowl with a spoon reduced the amount of fish sauce used per noodle bowl by 0.25 grams, compared to the normal condition where fish sauce is served in a bottle. Using a specially-designed spoon with a hole induced a larger reduction of 0.58 grams of fish sauce used per bowl. The other two interventions, cognitive- and affective- oriented nudges, also showed reductions of fish sauce usage, but the differences were not statistically significant. The findings can be used for policy implementation to advocate the use of a smaller sized spoon and a bowl to serve fish sauce instead of a bottle to reduce sodium consumption among Thai people

Understanding the Complexities of Eliminating Trans Fatty Acids: The Case of the Trans Fatty Acid Ban in Thailand

Trans fatty acids (TFAs) have no known health benefits and are linked to an increased risk of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). To eliminate TFAs from the food supply, the government of Thailand imposed a ban on partially hydrogenated oils (PHOs) in 2018. This study was aimed at analyzing the government policies and actions to eliminate TFAs in Thailand, focusing on policy content, context, process, and actors. This single-case qualitative study used a documentary review and interviews with 20 key policy actors. The data analysis was guided by thematic analysis based on the policy triangle framework. The results reveal that policy actors—government organizations, academics, civil society organizations, and the food industry—have different roles, interests, and influences with regard to eliminating TFAs in Thailand. Both formal and informal communication among policy actors aided in the policymaking process and the actions that followed. Changing perceptions of TFAs, the low intake of PHOs in Thailand, hype around trans fats, and trade dynamics shaped the government’s decision to impose the ban. As a result, the ban was selected to avoid the technical components of TFA elimination. This study suggests that eliminating TFAs in Thailand could be further enhanced by strengthening government actions in terms of enforcement and creating consumer awareness