The potential impact of human visceral leishmaniasis vaccines on population incidence

Human visceral leishmaniasis (VL) vaccines are currently under development and there is a need to understand their potential impact on population wide VL incidence. We implement four characteristics from different human VL vaccine candidates into two published VL transmission model variants to estimate the potential impact of these vaccine characteristics on population-wide anthroponotic VL incidence on the Indian subcontinent (ISC). The vaccines that are simulated in this study 1) reduce the infectiousness of infected individuals towards sand flies, 2) reduce risk of developing symptoms after infection, 3) reduce the risk of developing post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL), or 4) lead to the development of transient immunity. We also compare and combine a vaccine strategy with current interventions to identify their potential role in elimination of VL as a public health problem. We show that the first two simulated vaccine characteristics can greatly reduce VL incidence. For these vaccines, an approximate 60% vaccine efficacy would lead to achieving the ISC elimination target (<1 VL case per 10,000 population per year) within 10 years' time in a moderately endemic setting when vaccinating 100% of the population. Vaccinating VL cases to prevent the development of PKDL is a promising tool to sustain the low incidence elimination target after regular interventions are halted. Vaccines triggering the development of transient immunity protecting against infection lead to the biggest reduction in VL incidence, but booster doses are required to achieve perduring impact. Even though vaccines are not yet available for implementation, their development should be pursued as their potential impact on transmission can be substantial, both in decreasing incidence at the population level as well as in sustaining the ISC elimination target when other interventions are halted.Human visceral leishmaniasis (VL) vaccines are currently under development and there is a need to understand their potential impact on population wide VL incidence. We implement four characteristics from different human VL vaccine candidates into two published VL transmission model variants to estimate the potential impact of these vaccine characteristics on population-wide anthroponotic VL incidence on the Indian subcontinent (ISC). The vaccines that are simulated in this study 1) reduce the infectiousness of infected individuals towards sand flies, 2) reduce risk of developing symptoms after infection, 3) reduce the risk of developing post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL), or 4) lead to the development of transient immunity. We also compare and combine a vaccine strategy with current interventions to identify their potential role in elimination of VL as a publi

Incidence of non-typhoidal Salmonella invasive disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives We sought to collate and summarize high-quality data on non-typhoidal Salmonella invasive disease (iNTS) incidence to provide contemporary incidence estimates by location and year. Methods We systematically searched the databases Embase + MEDLINE, Web of Science, and PubMed for articles published on the incidence of iNTS from inception of the database through 8 May 2020 with no language, country, date, or demographic restrictions applied. A meta-analysis was performed to report pooled iNTS incidence as a rate of cases per 100,000 per year. Results Among 13 studies eligible for analysis, there were 68 estimates of incidence. Overall pooled incidence (95% CI) was 44.8 (31.5–60.5) per 100,000 persons per year. When stratified by region, pooled incidence was significantly higher in Africa than Asia, 51.0 (36.3–68.0) compared to 1.0 (0.2–2.5), respectively. Incidence was consistently higher in children aged <5 years compared with older age groups. Incidence displayed considerable heterogeneity in both place and time, varying substantially between locations and over consecutive years in the same location. Conclusions iNTS incidence varies by region, location, age group, and over time. Concerted efforts are needed to address the limited high-quality data available on iNTS disease incidence