Malmquist Bias and the Distance to the Virgo Cluster

This paper investigates the impact of Malmquist bias on the distance to the Virgo cluster determined by the H_0 Key Project using M100, and consequently on the derived value of H_0. Malmquist bias is a volume-induced statistical effect which causes the most probable distance to be different from the raw distance measured. Consideration of the bias in the distance to the Virgo cluster raises this distance and lowers the calculated value of H_0. Monte Carlo simulations of the cluster have been run for several possible distributions of spirals within the cluster and of clusters in the local universe. Simulations consistent with known information regarding the cluster and the errors of measurement result in a bias of about 6.5%-8.5%. This corresponds to an unbiased distance of 17.2-17.4 Mpc and a value of H_0 in the range 80-82 km/s/Mpc. The problem of determining the bias to Virgo illustrates several key points regarding Malmquist bias. Essentially all conventional astronomical distance measurements are subject to this bias. In addition, the bias accumulates when an attempt is made to construct "distance ladders" from measurements which are individually biased. As will be shown in the case of Virgo, the magnitude and direction of the bias are sensitive to the spatial distribution of the parent poputation from which the observed object is drawn - a distribution which is often poorly known. This leads to uncertainty in the magnitude of the bias, and adds to the importance of minimizing the number of steps in "distance ladders".Comment: 19 pages, 3 figures, Latex, To appear in Ap

A maximum-likelihood method for improving faint source flux and color estimates

Flux estimates for faint sources or transients are systematically biased high because there are far more truly faint sources than bright. Corrections which account for this effect are presented as a function of signal-to-noise ratio and the (true) slope of the faint-source number-flux relation. The corrections depend on the source being originally identified in the image in which it is being photometered. If a source has been identified in other data, the corrections are different; a prescription for calculating the corrections is presented. Implications of these corrections for analyses of surveys are discussed; the most important is that sources identified at signal-to-noise ratios of four or less are practically useless.Comment: 9 pp., accepted for publication in PAS

The Case for an Accelerating Universe from Supernovae

The unexpected faintness of high-redshift Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), as measured by two teams, has been interpreted as evidence that the expansion of the Universe is accelerating. We review the current challenges to this interpretation and seek to answer whether the cosmological implications are compelling. We discuss future observations of SNe Ia which could offer extraordinary evidence to test acceleration.Comment: To appear as an Invited Review for PASP 20 pages, 13 figure

The Clustering of Extragalactic Extremely Red Objects

We have measured the angular and spatial clustering of 671 K5 Extremely Red Objects (EROs) from a 0.98 square degree sub-region of the NOAO Deep Wide-Field Survey (NDWFS). Our study covers nearly 5 times the area and has twice the sample size of any previous ERO clustering study. The wide field of view and BwRIK passbands of the NDWFS allow us to place improved constraints on the clustering of z=1 EROs. We find the angular clustering of EROs is slightly weaker than in previous measurements, and w(1')=0.25+/-0.05 for K<18.40 EROs. We find no significant correlation of ERO spatial clustering with redshift, apparent color or absolute magnitude, although given the uncertainties, such correlations remain plausible. We find the spatial clustering of K5 EROs is well approximated by a power-law, with r_0=9.7+/-1.1 Mpc/h in comoving coordinates. This is comparable to the clustering of 4L* early-type galaxies at z<1, and is consistent with the brightest EROs being the progenitors of the most massive ellipticals. There is evidence of the angular clustering of EROs decreasing with increasing apparent magnitude, when NDWFS measurements of ERO clustering are combined with those from the literature. Unless the redshift distribution of K>20 EROs is very broad, the spatial clustering of EROs decreases from r_0=9.7+/-1.1 Mpc/h for K20 EROs.Comment: Accepted for publication in the ApJ. 29 pages with 10 figures. The NOAO Deep Wide-Field Survey Bootes data release is available online at http://www.noao.edu/noao/noaodeep

The Correlation Between Galaxy HI Linewidths and K' Luminosities

The relationship between galaxy luminosities and rotation rates is studied with total luminosities in the K' band. Extinction problems are essentially eliminated at this band centered at 2.1 micron. A template luminosity-linewidth relation is derived based on 65 galaxies drawn from two magnitude-limited cluster samples. The zero-point is determined using 4 galaxies with accurately known distances. The calibration is applied to give the distance to the Pisces Cluster (60 Mpc) at a redshift in the CMB frame of 4771 km/s. The resultant value of the Hubble Constant is 81 km/s/Mpc. The largest sources of uncertainty arises from the small number of zero-point calibrators at this time at K' and present application to only one cluster.Comment: 13 pages including 5 figures and 2 tables. Accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journa

A Complete Catalog of Swift GRB Spectra and Durations: Demise of a Physical Origin for Pre-Swift High-Energy Correlations

We calculate durations and spectral paramaters for 218 Swift bursts detected by the BAT instrument between and including GRBs 041220 and 070509, including 77 events with measured redshifts. Incorporating prior knowledge into the spectral fits, we are able to measure the characteristic $\nu F_{\nu}$ spectral peak energy $E_{\rm pk,obs}$ and the isotropic equivalent energy $E_{\rm iso}$ (1--$10^4$ keV) for all events. This complete and rather extensive catalog, analyzed with a unified methodology, allows us to address the persistence and origin of high-energy correlations suggested in pre-Swift observations. We find that the $E_{\rm pk,obs}$-$E_{\rm iso}$ correlation is present in the Swift sample; however, the best-fit powerlaw relation is inconsistent with the best-fit pre-Swift relation at >5 sigma significance. Moreover, it has a factor >~ 2 larger intrinsic scatter, after accounting for large errors on $E_{\rm pk,obs}$. A large fraction of the Swift events are hard and subluminous relative to (and inconsistent with) the pre-Swift relation, in agreement with indications from BATSE GRBs without redshift. Moreover, we determine an experimental threshold for the BAT detector and show how the $E_{\rm pk,obs}$--$E_{\rm iso}$ correlation arises artificially due to partial correlation with the threshold. We show that pre-Swift correlations found by Amati et al.(2002), Yonetoku et al. (2004), Firmani et al.(2006) (and independently by others) are likely unrelated to the physical properties of GRBs and are likely useless for tests of cosmology. Also, an explanation of these correlations in terms of a detector threshold provides a natural and quantitative explanation for why short-duration GRBs and events at low redshift tend to be outliers to the correlations.Comment: 25 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables, Accepted to Ap

The Motions of Clusters of Galaxies and the Dipoles of the Peculiar Velocity Field

In preceding papers of this series, TF relations for galaxies in 24 clusters with radial velocities between 1000 and 9200 km/s (SCI sample) were obtained, a Tully-Fisher (TF) template relation was constructed and mean offsets of each cluster with respect to the template obtained. Here, an estimate of the line-of-sight peculiar velocities of the clusters and their associated errors are given. It is found that cluster peculiar velocities in the Cosmic Microwave Background reference frame do not exceed 600 k/ms and that their distribution has a line-of-sight dispersion of 300 k/ms, suggesting a more quiescent cluster peculiar velocity field than previously reported. When measured in a reference frame in which the Local Group is at rest, the set of clusters at cz > 3000 km/s exhibits a dipole moment in agreement with that of the CMB, both in amplitude and apex direction. It is estimated that the bulk flow of a sphere of 6000 km/s radius in the CMB reference frame is between 140 and 320 km/s. These results are in agreement with those obtained from an independent sample of field galaxies (Giovanelli et al. 1998; see astro-ph/9807274)Comment: 9 pages, 2 tables, 7 figures, uses AAS LaTex; to appear in A

Selection Bias in Observing the Cosmological Evolution of the Mbh-sigma and Mbh-L Relationships

Programs to observe evolution in the Mbh-sigma or Mbh-L relations typically compare black-hole masses, Mbh, in high-redshift galaxies selected by nuclear activity to Mbh in local galaxies selected by luminosity L, or stellar velocity dispersion sigma. Because AGN luminosity is likely to depend on Mbh, selection effects are different for high-redshift and local samples, potentially producing a false signal of evolution. This bias arises because cosmic scatter in the Mbh-sigma and Mbh-L relations means that the mean log(L) or log(sigma) among galaxies that host a black hole of given Mbh, may be substantially different than the log(L) or log(sigma) obtained from inverting the Mbh-L or Mbh-sigma relations for the same nominal Mbh. The bias is particularly strong at high Mbh, where the luminosity and dispersion functions of galaxies are falling rapidly. The most massive black holes occur more often as rare outliers in galaxies of modest mass than in the even rarer high-mass galaxies, which would otherwise be the sole location of such black holes in the absence of cosmic scatter. Because of this bias, Mbh will typically appear to be too large in the distant sample for a given L or sigma. For the largest black holes and the largest plausible cosmic scatter, the bias can reach a factor of 3 in Mbh for the Mbh-sigma relation and a factor of 9 for the Mbh-L relation. Unfortunately, the actual cosmic scatter is not known well enough to correct for the bias. Measuring evolution of the Mbh and galaxy property relations requires object selection to be precisely defined and exactly the same at all redshifts.Comment: 28 pages, 6 figures, submitted to the Astrophysical Journa

Biases in Virial Black Hole Masses: An SDSS Perspective

We compile black hole (BH) masses for $\sim 60,000$ quasars in the redshift range $0.1 \lesssim z \lesssim 4.5$ included in the Fifth Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), using virial BH mass estimators based on the \hbeta, \MgII, and \CIV emission lines. We find that: (1) within our sample, the widths of the three lines follow log-normal distributions, with means and dispersions that do not depend strongly on luminosity or redshift;(2) the \MgII- and \hbeta-estimated BH masses are consistent with one another; and (3) the \CIV BH mass estimator may be more severely affected by a disk wind component than the \MgII and \hbeta estimators, giving a positive bias in mass correlated with the \CIV-\MgII blueshift. Most SDSS quasars have virial BH masses in the range $10^8-10^9 M_\odot$. There is a clear upper mass limit of $\sim 10^{10} M_\odot$ for active BHs at $z \gtrsim 2$, decreasing at lower redshifts. Making the reasonable assumptions that the underlying BH mass distribution decreases with mass and that the Eddington ratio distribution at fixed BH mass has non-zero width, we show that the measured virial BH mass distribution and Eddington ratio distribution are subject to Malmquist bias. A radio quasar subsample (with $1.5\lesssim z\lesssim 2.3$) has mean virial BH mass larger by $\sim 0.12$ dex than the whole sample. A broad absorption line (BAL) quasar subsample (with $1.7\lesssim z\lesssim 2.2$) has identical virial mass distribution as the nonBAL sample, with no mean offset. (Abridged)Comment: Updated virial mass measurements; improved presentation of the MC simulation; added new discussion sections; conclusions unchanged. The full table1 is available at http://www.astro.princeton.edu/~yshen/BH_mass/datafile1.txt.tar.g

Avoiding selection bias in gravitational wave astronomy

When searching for gravitational waves in the data from ground-based gravitational wave detectors it is common to use a detection threshold to reduce the number of background events which are unlikely to be the signals of interest. However, imposing such a threshold will also discard some real signals with low amplitude, which can potentially bias any inferences drawn from the population of detected signals. We show how this selection bias is naturally avoided by using the full information from the search, considering both the selected data and our ignorance of the data that are thrown away, and considering all relevant signal and noise models. This approach produces unbiased estimates of parameters even in the presence of false alarms and incomplete data. This can be seen as an extension of previous methods into the high false rate regime where we are able to show that the quality of parameter inference can be optimised by lowering thresholds and increasing the false alarm rate.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figure