Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Simple Monetary Policy Rules

The performance of various monetary rules is investigated in an open economy with incomplete exchange rate pass-through. Implementing monetary policy through an exchange-rate augmented policy rule does not improve social welfare compared to using an optimized Taylor rule, irrespective of the degree of pass-through. However, an indirect exchange rate response, through a policy reaction to Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rather than to domestic inflation, is welfare enhancing in all pass-through cases. This result is moreover independent of whether society values domestic or CPI inflation stabilization. The only case where a direct real exchange rate response is slightly welfare improving occurs when the other reaction coefficients, on inflation and output, are sub-optimal.Exchange rate pass-through; monetary policy; simple policy rules; small open economy; Taylor rule

Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation under Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through

The central bank’s optimal objective function is analyzed in a small open economy model allowing for incomplete exchange rate pass-through. The results indicate that social welfare can only be marginally improved by including an explicit exchange-rate term in the delegated objective function, irrespective of the degree of pass-through. An implicit response to the exchange rate, through Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation targeting is, however, beneficial. Welfare can, moreover, be enhanced by appointing a central banker with a greater preference for interest rate smoothing than that of the society, as a result of surpassing some of the stabilization bias arising under a discretionary policy. Consequently, there are welfare gains from monetary policy inertia. The optimal degree of interest rate smoothing is increasing in the degree of pass-through.Exchange rate pass-through; inflation targeting; interest rate inertia; monetary policy; small open economy

Monetary Policy with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through

The central bank’s optimal reaction to foreign and domestic shocks is analyzed in an inflation targeting model allowing for incomplete exchange rate pass-through. Limited pass-through is incorporated through nominal rigidities in an aggregate supply-aggregate demand model derived from some microfoundations. Three main results are obtained. First, the results suggest that the interest rate response to foreign shocks is smaller when pass-through is low. Second, the inflation-output variability trade-off becomes more favourable as pass-through decreases. Third, lower pass-through, that is larger nominal rigidity, leads to higher exchange rate volatility. With exogenous nominal price stickiness, part of the required relative price adjustment is provided through larger movements in the endogenously determined exchange rate.Exchange rate pass-through; exchange rate volatility; inflation targeting; monetary policy; small open economy

Monetary Policy Trade-Offs in an Estimated Open-Economy DSGE Model

This paper studies the transmission of shocks and the trade-offs between stabilizing CPI inflation and alternative measures of the output gap in Ramses, the Riksbank's empirical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy. The main results are, first, that the transmission of shocks depends substantially on the conduct of monetary policy, and second, that the trade-off between stabilizing CPI inflation and the output gap strongly depends on which concept of potential output in the output gap between output and potential output is used in the loss function. If potential output is defined as a smooth trend this trade-off is much more pronounced compared to the case when potential output is defined as the output level that would prevail if prices and wages were flexible.

Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium-Sized DSGE Model

We show how to construct optimal policy projections in Ramses, the Riksbank’s open-economy medium-sized DSGE model for forecasting and policy analysis. Bayesian estimation of the parameters of the model indicates that they are relatively invariant to alternative policy assumptions and supports our view that the model parameters may be regarded as unaffected by the monetary policy specification. We discuss how monetary policy, and in particular the choice of output gap measure, affects the transmission of shocks. Finally, we use the model to assess the recent Great Recession in the world economy and how its impact on the economic development in Sweden depends on the conduct of monetary policy. This provides an illustration on how Rames incorporates large international spillover effects.