Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Simple Monetary Policy Rules

The performance of various monetary rules is investigated in an open economy with incomplete exchange rate pass-through. Implementing monetary policy through an exchange-rate augmented policy rule does not improve social welfare compared to using an optimized Taylor rule, irrespective of the degree of pass-through. However, an indirect exchange rate response, through a policy reaction to Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rather than to domestic inflation, is welfare enhancing in all pass-through cases. This result is moreover independent of whether society values domestic or CPI inflation stabilization. The only case where a direct real exchange rate response is slightly welfare improving occurs when the other reaction coefficients, on inflation and output, are sub-optimal.Exchange rate pass-through; monetary policy; simple policy rules; small open economy; Taylor rule

Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation under Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through

The central bank’s optimal objective function is analyzed in a small open economy model allowing for incomplete exchange rate pass-through. The results indicate that social welfare can only be marginally improved by including an explicit exchange-rate term in the delegated objective function, irrespective of the degree of pass-through. An implicit response to the exchange rate, through Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation targeting is, however, beneficial. Welfare can, moreover, be enhanced by appointing a central banker with a greater preference for interest rate smoothing than that of the society, as a result of surpassing some of the stabilization bias arising under a discretionary policy. Consequently, there are welfare gains from monetary policy inertia. The optimal degree of interest rate smoothing is increasing in the degree of pass-through.Exchange rate pass-through; inflation targeting; interest rate inertia; monetary policy; small open economy

Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Simple Monetary Policy Rules

This paper investigates the performance of various monetary rules in an open economy with incomplete exchange rate pass-through. Implementing monetary policy through an exchange rate augmented policy rule does not improve social welfare compared to using an optimized Taylor rule, irrespective of the degree of pass-through. A direct exchange rate response improves welfare only if the other reaction coefficients, on inflation and output, are sub-optimal. However, an indirect exchange rate response, through a policy reaction to Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rather than to domestic inflation, is welfare enhancing. This result is independent of whether society values domestic or CPI inflation stabilization

Implications of Exchange Rate Objectives under Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through

This paper analyzes the central banks optimal objective function in a small open economy model allowing for incomplete exchange rate pass-through. The results indicate that there are welfare gains from different types of monetary policy inertia. The welfare improvements of exchange rate stabilization are, however, dependent on the degree of discretionary stabilization bias. If the stabilization bias has been mitigated through a low weight on output stabilization social welfare can not be improved by inclusion of an explicit exchange rate term in the delegated objective function, irrespective of the degree of pass-through. Welfare can, though, be enhanced by appointing a central banker with greater preference for interest rate smoothing than that of society. The optimal degree of interest rate smoothing is increasing in the degree of pass-through

Optimal monetary policy delegation under incomplete exchange rate pass-through

The central bank's optimal objective function is analyzed in a small open economy model allowing for incomplete exchange rate pass-through. The results indicate that social welfare can only be marginally improved by including an explicit exchange-rate term in the delegated objective function, irrespective of the degree of pass-through. An implicit response to the exchange rate, through Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation targeting is, however, beneficial. Welfare can, moreover, be enhanced by appointing a central banker with a greater preference for interest rate smoothing than that of the society, as a result of surpassing some of the stabilization bias arising under a discretionary policy. Consequently, there are welfare gains from monetary policy inertia. The optimal degree of interest rate smoothing is increasing in the degree of pass-through

Incomplete exchange rate pass-through and simple monetary policy rules

The performance of various monetary rules is investigated in an open economy with incomplete exchange rate pass-through. Implementing monetary policy through an exchange-rate augmented policy rule does not improve social welfare compared to using an optimized Taylor rule, irrespective of the degree of pass-through. However, an indirect exchange rate response, through a policy reaction to Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rather than to domestic inflation, is welfare enhancing in all pass-through cases. This result is moreover independent of whether society values domestic or CPI inflation stabilization. The only case where a direct real exchange rate response is slightly welfare improving occurs when the other reaction coefficients, on inflation and output, are sub-optimal

Forecasting Performance of an Open Economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

This paper analyzes the forecasting performance of an open economy DSGE model, estimated with Bayesian methods, for the Euro area during 1994Q1-2002Q4. We compare the DSGE model and a few variants of this model to various reduced form forecasting models such as vector autoregressions (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM), estimated both by maximum likelihood and two different Bayesian approaches, and traditional benchmark models, e.g. the random walk. The accuracy of point forecasts, interval forecasts and the predictive distribution as a whole are assessed in an out-of-sample rolling event evaluation using several univariate and multivariate measures. The results show that the open economy DSGE model compares well with more empirical models and thus that the tension between rigor and fit in older generations of DSGE models is no longer present. We also critically examine the role of Bayesian model probabilities and other frequently used low-dimensional summaries, e.g. the log determinant statistic, as measures of overall forecasting performance

Parameter identification in a estimated New Keynesian open economy model

In this paper, we use Monte Carlo methods to study the small sample properties of the classical maximum likelihood (ML) estimator in artificial samples generated by the New-Keynesian open economy DSGE model estimated by Adolfson et al. (2008) with Bayesian techniques. While asymptotic identification tests show that some of the parameters are weakly identified in the model and by the set of observable variables we consider, we document that ML is unbiased and has low MSE for many key parameters if a suitable set of observable variables are included in the estimation. These findings suggest that we can learn a lot about many of the parameters by confronting the model with data, and hence stand in sharp contrast to the conclusions drawn by Canova and Sala (2009) and Iskrev (2008). Encouraged by our results, we estimate the model using classical techniques on actual data, where we use a new simulation based approach to compute the uncertainty bands for the parameters. From a classical viewpoint, ML estimation leads to a significant improvement in fit relative to the log-likelihood computed with the Bayesian posterior median parameters, but at the expense of some the ML estimates being implausible from a microeconomic viewpoint. We interpret these results to imply that the model at hand suffers from a substantial degree of model misspecification. This interpretation is supported by the DSGE-VAR analysis in Adolfson et al. (2008). Accordingly, we conclude that problems with model misspecification, and not primarily weak identification, is the main challenge ahead in developing quantitative macromodels for policy analysis