Do Acceding Countries Need Higher Fiscal Deficits?

Do Acceding Countries Need Higher Fiscal Deficits?accession countries, aquis communautaire, contribution fee, enlargement, financial position, fiscal deficits, fiscal position, co-financing, net balance, transfers

Differences in productivity and its determinants among firms from the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Germany. The case of the cosmetics industry

The paper assesses differences in productivity and its determinants among enterprises manufacturing cosmetics and detergents (NACE 245) and located in Germany and in three EU new member states. The database collected through conducting an identical survey in Germany, Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary was used. The results of this firm-level study point on the role of the existence of 'dual economy' of some very highly and very low productive firms, especially among the small enterprises from the new member states. Productivity gap vis-a-vis Germany in this labour-intensive industry disappears in the case of some large enterprises from the CEECs. Generally, higher fixed capital intensity, higher investment rate, lower unit labour costs, more employees improving skills, and higher use of modern communication technology help in narrowing productivity gap. The paper ends with policy recommendations.productivity, enterprises, industry

Income from the Privatisation of State Enterprises in Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic in 1991-1994

The Privatisation process of State enterprises, in countries once being members of the Council for Mutual Economic Aid, is perceived as the main element of structural changes, leading to the economic system transformation and economic development. Although, privatisation cannot be understood as the main factor for the development of the market economy, however, its accomplishment influences the success of the other transformation elements, such as macro-economic stabilisation and economic activities’ liberalisation. Privatisation is a way of enforcing micro-economic changes in enterprises and introducing financial discipline. It gives a chance to increase productivity in the enterprises undergoing privatisation (as well as in economy) by establishing an atmosphere of competitiveness among them, and it also enables to eliminate subsidies (direct and indirect) from the State budget to an enterprise.privatisation, economic transition, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic

Bosnia and Herzegovina - Meeting Copenhagen economic criteria for accession to the EU

Delegation of the European Commission based in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) granted the consortium represented by ECORYS a contract for EU support to the Economic Policy Research Unit, a subdivision of the Economic Policy Planning Unit of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina. As part of this project activities a subproject was designed trying to assess the position of BH against the benchmarks of the Copenhagen economic criteria and to identify policy measures for meeting the criteria. The issues of particular relevance to the project included: presentation of the Copenhagen economic criteria, analysis of the existing situation in the country, strategic and policy documents addressing the subject, identification of gaps to be filled in order to achieve the benchmark, and policy recommendations. In July, 2006 ECORYS appointed the Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE), an international, non-profit research and advisory institution, to research on the subject. The research project team comprised experts: Messrs. Rafa³ Antczak (team leader), Wojciech Paczyñski, and Ranko Markuš, Mmes. Ma³gorzata Antczak and Karina Kostrzewa, assisted by Mr. Erol Mujanovic. The report was based on available national account and microeconomic data, strategic and policy documents of the BH governmental bodies, relevant reports by international organisations, EU institutions, academic and research centres and opinions of key stakeholders. The analytical research on the economic developments in BH by international financial institutions, especially the IMF and World Bank, as well as domestic bodies, especially the Economic Policy Research Unit, was extensively exploited in the research. However, the primary focus of the research was on structural and institutional aspects facilitating or impeding functioning of a market economy in the BH and country's capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the EU. Therefore, the report focuses on background analysis of economic factors influencing the functioning of market economy and the capacity to withstand the competition in the EU market. The research consists of four main parts. In Part 1, the Copenhagen economic criteria are presented in a comparative perspective of the recent experiences of the new member states and acceding countries to allow diagnosing of the most important gaps to be filled by BH. Part 2 analyses macroeconomic developments in BH, presenting them in a comparative perspective relative to EU candidate countries. The special focus is on two fields where BH faces particularly difficult challenges: labour market and foreign trade. Also, the three scenarios of BH catching-up with the EU are presented. Privatisation process which is one of the most important institutional and structural features of every transition economy and especially relevant from the perspective of meeting the Copenhagen criteria is analysed in Part 3. Part 4 comprises analysis of microeconomic developments in BH with the elements of the financial analysis of enterprises, both state and private. The financial analysis of enterprises concentrates on current situation and identification of trends in microeconomic developments to identify comparative advantages, assess productivity, and to position the BH enterprise sector towards the potential competition on the EU markets. Finally, Part 5 includes policy recommendations for decision makers both from the BH government and the EC. The research is supplemented by the Annexes providing background pieces of information on the analysed topics. The project team established contacts with representatives of international organizations, the BH governmental bodies, and research community in BH to collect pieces of information and consult on research topics. However, the authors of the researchers bear the sole responsibility for the pieces of information and opinions presented in the report.Bosnia and Herzegovina, Copenhagen criteria, EU accession, European integration, competitiveness

Fiscal Challenges Facing the EU New Member States

Since May 1, 2004 the European Union's new member states (NMS) have been subject to the same fiscal rules established in the Treaty on the European Union and Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) as the old member states (OMS). The NMS entered the EU running structural fiscal deficits. More than half of them (including the biggest ones) breach the Treaty's actual deficit limits and are already the subject of the excessive deficit procedure. A high rate of economic growth makes the fiscal situation of most NMS reasonably manageable in the short- to medium-term, but the long term fiscal outlook, mostly connected with the consequences of an aging population, is dramatic. The NMS should therefore prepare themselves now to be able to meet this challenge over the next decades (the same goes for the OMS). In addition, the perspective of EMU entry should provide the NMS with a strong incentive to reduce their deficits now because waiting (and postponing both fiscal adjustment and the adoption of the Euro) will only result in higher cumulative fiscal costs. The additional financial burden connected with EU accession cannot serve as excuse in delaying fiscal consolidation. In spite of the growing debate on the relevance of the EU's fiscal surveillance rules and not excluding the possibility of their limited modification, they should not be relaxed. Frequent breaching of these rules cannot serve as an argument that they are irrelevant from the point of view of safeguarding fiscal prudence and avoiding fiscal 'free riding' under the umbrella of monetary union. Any version of fiscal surveillance rules (either current or modified) must be solidly anchored in an effective enforcement mechanism (including automatic sanctions) at the EU and national levels.European Union, Economic and Monetary Union, Stability and Growth Pact, new member states, Central and Eastern Europe, fiscal policy, EMU enlargement

Fiscal Policy in Poland under Transition

Based on statistics provided by the Ministry of Finance and Central Statistical Office, the paper provides an analyses of the economic transition experienced by Poland paying particular attention to the fiscal policy.Poland, Economic Transition, Fiscal Policy

The Episodes of Currency Crises in the European Transition Economies

The series of currency crises which hit several developing countries in the 1990s did not leave the emerging market economies of Central and Eastern Europe unscathed. However, contrary to the experience of Mexico in 1995 and South East Asia in 1997-1998, the roots of the crises in our region were usually less sophisticated and easier to identify. Most crisis episodes in the former communist countries fit nicely with the ”first generation” canonical model elaborated in 1979 by Paul Krugman and developed in 1980s by other economists. In this model, fiscal imbalances are the main factor leading to depleting international reserves of the central bank and speculative attacks against national currencies. This was the main reason behind all currency crises in our region, very often closely related to serious microeconomic weaknesses and delays in structural and institutional reforms. The only minor exception was the Czech Republic where the devaluation crisis in May 1997 (of rather limited magnitude) was caused by over-borrowing of the enterprise sector, an unreformed financial sector, and political turmoil rather than by fiscal imbalances and an excessively expansionary monetary policy. This volume, following another collection of similar monographs related to Latin American and Asian regions, presents five episodes of currency crises in Eastern Europe in the second half of 1990s. Four of them were related to post-communist economies and one (Turkey) to a developing economy aiming to integrate with the EU and suffering many macroeconomic and structural weaknesses similar to those of the transition group. Bulgaria in 1996-1997 represents the first episode of a full-scale financial crisis, involving drastic currency devaluation and near-hyperinflation, a banking crisis and a near default on debt obligations. The roots of the crisis were fully domestic and, although severe, were restricted to Bulgaria. Russia's financial crisis in August 1998, despite similar characteristics and domestic roots as in Bulgaria, had an important international dimension. On the one hand, the first speculative attacks against the ruble in the fall of 1997 were triggered by crisis events in Asia, particularly in Hong Kong and Korea. On the other hand, when the Russian crisis erupted, it provoked a huge contagion effect across all the countries of the former USSR. It also caused a big turmoil on all segments of the international financial market, bringing the danger of a recession in the US and other developed countries, and triggering a currency crisis in Brazil few months later. The monographs on Ukraine and Moldova present two case studies of such a contagion effect. However, one should remember that these two economies (as well as most other FSU economies) experienced the same weaknesses and vulnerabilities as in Russia. Thus Russian events could only accelerate the crisis in these countries which was, in any event, hard to avoid. Finally, we present the analysis of the recent financial market crisis in Turkey, which fortunately has been stopped by fast and substantial IMF and World Bank support and has not evolved into a full-scale currency crisis.transition economies, crisis, fiscal policy, Bulgaria, Moldova, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine

Role of individual characteristics and national distancing policies for COVID-19 protective behaviour among older adults: a cross-sectional study of 27 European countries

OBJECTIVE: Evidence on how individual characteristics and distancing policies during the first wave of COVID-19 together influenced health behaviours is scarce. The objective of this study is to fill in this gap by studying how the propensity to engage in protective behaviours in Europe was shaped by the interplay of individual characteristics and national policies. DESIGN: Data on individual behaviour in 27 countries came from the ‘Corona Survey’ module of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, collected in summer 2020. As outcomes, we considered avoidant behaviours (never leaving home, reducing frequency of walks and reducing frequency of social meetings) and preventive behaviour (wearing a face mask). Among relevant policies, we considered stay-at-home restrictions, mask wearing policies and gathering restrictions. Individual characteristics comprised gender, health risk of COVID-19 (older age and poor health) and activity (employment and providing help to other households). PARTICIPANTS: Nationally representative samples of older adults (50 years and over), n=51 540 respondents (58% of women). RESULTS: Active people (employed and helping other households) were more likely to wear face masks but less likely to use avoidant behaviours. People at health risk (older people and those in poor health) were more likely to use all types of protective behaviours. Protective behaviours were also more frequent among women than among men. Longer duration of distancing polices correlated with more frequent protective behaviours. Distancing policies reduced social differences in the rate of protective behaviours only in case of social meetings and mask wearing. CONCLUSIONS: Protective behaviours responded to distancing policies, but our results suggest that people used them voluntarily, especially if they were at health risk