Research priorities in support of ocean monitoring and forecasting at the Met Office

Ocean monitoring and forecasting services are increasingly being used by a diverse community of public and commercial organizations. The Met Office, as the body responsible for severe weather prediction, has for many years been involved in providing forecasts of aspects of the marine environment. This paper describes how these have evolved to include a range of wave, surge, and ocean reanalysis, analysis, and forecasts services. To support these services, and to ensure they evolve to meet the demands of users and are based on the best available science, a number of scientific challenges need to be addressed. The paper goes on to summarize the key challenges, and highlights some priorities for the ocean monitoring and forecasting research group at the Met Office. There is a need to both develop the underpinning science of the modelling and data assimilation systems and to maximize the benefits from observations and other inputs to the systems. Systematic evaluation underpins this science, and also needs to be the focus of research

Nonlinear equilibration of fast dynamics

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Synergies in operational oceanography : the intrinsic need for sustained ocean observations

Operational oceanography can be described as the provision of routine oceanographic information needed for decision-making purposes. It is dependent upon sustained research and development through the end-to-end framework of an operational service, from observation collection to delivery mechanisms. The core components of operational oceanographic systems are a multi-platform observation network, a data management system, a data assimilative prediction system, and a dissemination/accessibility system. These are interdependent, necessitating communication and exchange between them, and together provide the mechanism through which a clear picture of ocean conditions, in the past, present, and future, can be seen. Ocean observations play a critical role in all aspects of operational oceanography, not only for assimilation but as part of the research cycle, and for verification and validation of products. Data assimilative prediction systems are advancing at a fast pace, in tandem with improved science and the growth in computing power. To make best use of the system capability these advances would be matched by equivalent advances in operational observation coverage. This synergy between the prediction and observation systems underpins the quality of products available to stakeholders, and justifies the need for sustained ocean observations. In this white paper, the components of an operational oceanographic system are described, highlighting the critical role of ocean observations, and how the operational systems will evolve over the next decade to improve the characterization of ocean conditions, including at finer spatial and temporal scales