LAM modelling of East European economies: Methodology, EU accession and privatisation

The paper presents a new approach to modelling economies in transition, where the adjustment processes are often nonlinear and data series are short. The model presented in the paper, the LAM-3 model, is the latest development in a series of long-run adjustment models, used for simulation and forecasting of several East European Economies. In particular the model contains short-run equations with bilinear error correction derived from a structural vector autoregressive model. The paper also gives derivations of two long-run relationships of the model, those for full-capacity output (reformable and non-reformable labour) and the relationship linking prices, money, incomes and exchange rates. The short-run part evolves around the specification of price and wage dynamics according to the NAIRU principle. Due to the fact that series of data for Eastern European countries are short, the parameters are evaluated with the use of global optimization technique (repetitive stochastic guestimation) rather than by a traditional econometric method. The model was estimated and applied for Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovak Republic, Romania and Ukraine. For each country it consists of 3 long-run and 21 short-run relationships. Examples of simulations presented here evaluate European Union accessibility through inflation correlation measures and Aghion-Blanchard optimal speed of privatisation

The effect of surface oxide layer on the rate of hydrogen emission from aluminum and its alloys in a high vacuum

The influence of surface oxide layers on the kinetics of hydrogen emission at the high vacuum of 10 to the minus 8th power torr was investigated at temperatures from 20 to 450 C using samples of pure AB00 aluminum and the cast alloy AMg. Cast and deformed samples of AMts alloy were used to study the effect of oxide film thickness on the rate of hydrogen emission. Thermodynamic calculations of the reactions of the generation and dissociation of aluminum oxide show that degasification at elevated temperatures (up to 600 C) and high vacuum will not reduce the thickness of artificially-generated surface oxide layers on aluminum and its alloys

Zonal Velocity Bands and the Solar Activity Cycle

We compare the zonal flow pattern in subsurface layers of the Sun with the distribution of surface magnetic features like sunspots and polar faculae. We demonstrate that in the activity belt, the butterfly pattern of sunspots coincides with the fast stream of zonal flows, although part of the sunspot distribution does spill over to the slow stream. At high latitudes, the polar faculae and zonal flow bands have similar distributions in the spatial and temporal domains.Comment: To appear in Solar Physic

Regional population expenditure for foodstuffs in the Russian Federation: componential and cluster analyses

The article describes the solving of the problem of conducting the component and cluster analyses of population expenditure on food as one of the most important components of the standard of living. The purpose of the analysis is to develop the regional clusters of the Russian Federation, which vary in the structure of household expenditure for foodstuffs. The foodstuffs are presented in absolute units taking into integral account the standard of living index. The methods of intellectual analysis such as component and cluster analyses are applied as the research methods. The procedure for the data intellectual analysis based on the interconnected performance of component and cluster analyses is proposed. The procedure of the data intellectual analysis considers the interrelation between the results received by different methods, and also the possibility to return to the previous method for the purpose of repeating the analysis to specify consistently the clusters composition. Few clusters of the wealthy regions characterized by the high and average levels of expenditure for foodstuffs are revealed as well as the quite many clusters of not enough wealthy and not wealthy regions characterized by the low level of expenditure for foodstuffs. It is shown that the growth of standard of living characterized by the size of a gross regional product per capita is followed by the growth of the Gini coefficient, which indicates both the inequality of income distribution and reduction in expenditure for low-value foodstuffs. The results of the analysis can be applied to the development of the decision-making support system intended for the analysis of the scenarios of macroeconomic regulation in the eld of income policy for the purpose of increasing the standard of living of population. The analysis of the population expenditure for foodstuffs has allowed to reveal the cluster structure of the regions of the Russian Federation, to show it according to the generalized indications, to formulate the specific characteristics of the clusters of the regions and important management decisions

Distribution of the freshwater snail species fagotia (Gastropoda, Melanopsidae) in Ukraine according to climatic factors. I. Fagotia еsperi

Распространение пресноводных молюсков рода Fagotia (Gastropoda, Melanopsidae)на территории Украины в соответствии с климатическими условиями I. Fagotia Esperi. Титар В., Макарова Н. - Моделирование экологической ниши методом максимальной энтропии было использовано для выяснения роли климатических условий в формировании ареала пресноводных моллюсков F. еsperi (Ferussac, 1823) на территории Украины при современных и прогнозируемых на 2050 г. климатических условиях

Methodological Approach to Measure the Quality of Life of the Region’s Population

The article is devoted to the urgent problem of the regional development, i.e. to the development of methodological tools to evaluate the quality of life of the population in the region. The article considers the concept of “quality of life”, and the terms related thereto; and substantiate the author’s position with respect to the concept. The existing domestic and foreign approaches to evaluate the quality of life of the population were analyzed, and the application of the comprehensive approach was reasoned within this study. The criteria for evaluation of the quality of life of the population were distinguished. The authors proposed the methodological approach that considers not only objective indicators of the quality of life presented in the statistical reports of the Russian Federal State Statistics Service, but also employs subjective evaluations of the local population enabling more appropriate evaluation of the quality of life in the region. The methodological tools of the research include mathematical methods of statistical data processing and online survey of the population about the level of satisfaction with various aspects of their life. The methodological tools were tested using the example of the Sverdlovsk Region that is characterized both by the steady improvement of statistical indicators of the quality of life and by low satisfaction of population with certain aspects of the quality of life, which generally decreases the integrated indicator of the quality of life despite positive dynamics of social and economic development of the region and vigorous social policy of the regional authorities. The proposed methodology was used in the evaluation of the quality of life of the Sverdlovsk Region population as part of the development of the Concept of comprehensive regional program “New quality of life of Ural residents” (Decree of the Governor of the Sverdlovsk Region No. 45-UG dated January 29, 2014 “On the Concept of the life quality improvement for the Sverdlovsk Region population before 2030 year — “New quality of life of Ural residents”).The article has been prepared with the support of the grant of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) No. 15-06-09169 “Development of methodical measurement tools and evaluation of the impact of social, economic, medical and demographic factors on mortality rates of working-age population”

Spin-transfer mechanism of ferromagnetism in polymerized fullerenes: AbinitioAb initio calculations

A mechanism of the high temperature ferromagnetism in polymerized fullerenes is suggested. It is assumed that some of the C$_{60}$ molecules in the crystal become magnetically active due to spin and charge transfer from the paramagnetic impurities (atoms or groups), such as hydrogen, fluorine, hydroxyl group OH, amino group NH$_2$, or methyl group CH$_3$, dispersed in the fullerene matrix. The exchange interaction between the spins localized on the magnetically active fullerenes is evaluated using \textit{ab initio} calculations. The nearest neighbour and next nearest neighbour exchange interaction is found to be in the range $0.1\div 0.3$ eV, that is, high enough to account for the room temperature ferromagnetism.Comment: typos corrected, 8 pages, 3 figures, LaTe

The Practice of Using Information and Communications Technologies in Mastering Variety Songs by Preschool Children

При финансовой поддержке Российского гуманитарного научного фонда, проект № 08-06-14135