DEVELOPING AND VALIDATING A QUALITY ASSESSMENT SCALE FOR WEB PORTALS

The Web portals business model has spread rapidly over the last few years. Despite this, there have been very few scholarly findings about which services and characteristics make a Web site a portal and which dimensions determine the customers’ evaluation of the portal’s quality. Taking the example of financial portals, the authors develop a theoretical framework of the Web portal quality construct by determining the number and nature of corresponding dimensions, which are: security and trust, basic services quality, cross-buying services quality, added values, transaction support and relationship quality. To measure the six portal quality dimensions, multi item measurement scales are developed and validated.Construct Validation, Customer Retention, E-Banking, E- Loyalty, Service Quality, Web Portals

Analyzing Product Efficiency – A Customer-Oriented Approach

The purpose of this study is to provide a broader, economic perspective on customer value management. By developing an efficiency-based concept of customer value we aim at contributing to the presently underrepresented research field of marketing economics. The customer value concept is utilized to assess product performance and eventually to determine the competitive market structure and the product-market boundaries. Our analytical approach to product-market structuring based on customer value is developed within a microeconomic framework. We measure customer value as the product efficiency viewed from the customer’s perspective, i.e., as a ratio of outputs (e.g., resale value, reliability, safety, comfort) that customers obtain from a product relative to inputs (price, running costs) that customers have to deliver in exchange. The efficiency value derived can be understood as the return on the customer’s investment. Products offering a maximum customer value relative to all other alternatives in the market are characterized as efficient. Different efficient products may create value in different ways using different strategies (output-input- combinations). Each efficient product can be viewed as a benchmark for a distinct sub-market. Jointly, these products form the efficient frontier, which serves as a reference function for the inefficient products. Thus, we define customer value of alternative products as a relative concept. Market partitioning is achieved endogenously by clustering products in one segment that are benchmarked by the same efficient peer(s). This ensures that only products with a similar output-input structure are partitioned into the same sub-market. As a result, a sub-market consists of highly substitutable products. In addition, value-creating strategies (i.e., indications of how to vary inputs and outputs) to improve product performance in order to offer maximum customer value are provided. The impact of each performance parameter on customer value is determined, identifying the value drivers among them. This methodological framework is applied to data of the 1996 German Automobile Club (ADAC) survey.Customer Value, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Efficiency Analysis, Market Partitioning, Product-Market Structuring

Analyzing Product Efficiency – A Customer-Oriented Approach

The purpose of this study is to provide a broader, economic perspective on customer value management. By developing an efficiency-based concept of customer value we aim at contributing to the presently underrepresented research field of marketing economics. The customer value concept is utilized to assess product performance and eventually to determine the competitive market structure and the product-market boundaries. Our analytical approach to product-market structuring based on customer value is developed within a microeconomic framework. We measure customer value as the product efficiency viewed from the customer’s perspective, i.e., as a ratio of outputs (e.g., resale value, reliability, safety, comfort) that customers obtain from a product relative to inputs (price, running costs) that customers have to deliver in exchange. The efficiency value derived can be understood as the return on the customer’s investment. Products offering a maximum customer value relative to all other alternatives in the market are characterized as efficient. Different efficient products may create value in different ways using different strategies (output-input- combinations). Each efficient product can be viewed as a benchmark for a distinct sub-market. Jointly, these products form the efficient frontier, which serves as a reference function for the inefficient products. Thus, we define customer value of alternative products as a relative concept. Market partitioning is achieved endogenously by clustering products in one segment that are benchmarked by the same efficient peer(s). This ensures that only products with a similar output-input structure are partitioned into the same sub-market. As a result, a sub-market consists of highly substitutable products. In addition, value-creating strategies (i.e., indications of how to vary inputs and outputs) to improve product performance in order to offer maximum customer value are provided. The impact of each performance parameter on customer value is determined, identifying the value drivers among them. This methodological framework is applied to data of the 1996 German Automobile Club (ADAC) survey.Customer Value, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Efficiency Analysis, Market Partitioning, Product-Market Structuring

STRUCTURING PRODUCT-MARKETS: AN APPROACH BASED ON CUSTOMER VALUE

We offer an efficiency-based approach to derive market partitions and respective benchmarks using Data Envelopment Analysis. Product efficiency is measured as an output to input value from the customer’s perspective. Products offering a maximum customer value relative to alternatives represent benchmarks for different sub-markets. The framework is applied to data on compact cars. relevant product segments.Customer Value, Product-Market Structuring, Market Partitioning, Data Envelopment Analysis, Product Efficiency, Frontier Functions

How the baby boomers' retirement wave distorts model-based output gap estimates

Hours per capita measures based on the private sector as usually included in the set of observables for estimating macroeconomic models are affected by low-frequent demographic trends and sectoral shifts that cannot be explained by standard models. Further, model-based output gap estimates are closely linked to the observable hours per capita series. Hence, hours per capita that are not measured in concordance with the model assumptions can distort output gap estimates. This paper shows that sectoral shifts in hours and the changing share of prime age individuals in the working-age population lead indeed to erroneous output gap dynamics. Regarding the aftermath of the global financial crisis model-based output gaps estimated using standard hours per capita series are persistently negative for the US economy. This is not caused by a permanently depressed economy, but by the retirement wave of baby boomers which lowers aggregate hours per capita. After adjusting hours for changes in the age composition to bring them in line with the model assumptions, the estimated output gap gradually closes in the years following the global financial crisis

Forecasting under Model Uncertainty

This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for output growth, inflation and the interest rate. The model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook projections. In addition, I compute weighted forecasts using simple combination schemes as well as likelihood based methods. While forecasts from structuralmodels fail to forecast large recessions and booms, they are quite accurate during normal times. Model forecasts compare particularly well to nonstructural forecasts and to Greenbook projections for horizons of three quarters ahead and higher. Weighted forecasts are more precise than forecasts from single models. A simple average of forecasts yields an accuracy comparable to the one obtained with state of the art time series methods that can incorporate large datasets. Comparing density forecasts of DSGE models with the actual distribution of observations shows that the models overestimate uncertainty around point forecasts

Fiscal consolidation strategy

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis and great recession, many countries face substantial deficits and growing debts. In the United States, federal government outlays as a ratio to GDP rose substantially from about 19.5 percent before the crisis to over 24 percent after the crisis. In this paper we consider a fiscal consolidation strategy that brings the budget to balance by gradually reducing this spending ratio over time to the level that prevailed prior to the crisis. A crucial issue is the impact of such a consolidation strategy on the economy. We use structural macroeconomic models to estimate this impact focussing primarily on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with price and wage rigidities and adjustment costs. We separate out the impact of reductions in government purchases and transfers, and we allow for a reduction in both distortionary taxes and government debt relative to the baseline of no consolidation. According to the model simulations GDP rises in the short run upon announcement and implementation of this fiscal consolidation strategy and remains higher than the baseline in the long run. We explore the role of the mix of expenditure cuts and tax reductions as well as gradualism in achieving this policy outcome. Finally, we conduct sensitivity studies regarding the type of model used and its parameterization

Finanzportale im Internet : Geschäftsmodell, Kundenbindungspotenziale und Qualitätsanforderungen

Das Ziel der vorliegenden Studie ist die Analyse des Nutzungsverhaltens von Online Portal-Usern, insbesondere im Bereich Bank- und Finanzdienstleistungen. Zu diesem Zweck wird ein Portal zunächst als integriertes Geschäftsmodell vorgestellt, dessen Entwicklung aus der zunehmenden Notwendigkeit von Online-Kundenbindung resultiert. Anschließend werden aus den Ergebnissen einer umfassenden Online-Befragung mittels moderner statistischer Verfahren jene Dimensionen identifiziert und überprüft, die aus Nutzersicht die Qualität eines Portals bestimmen. Auf diese Weise wird ein empirisch abgesichertes Modell für die Messung der Qualität eines Finanzportals entwickelt. Es zeigt sich, dass aus Kundensicht sechs Qualitätsdimensionen existieren: "Sicherheit und Vertrauen", "Basisleistungen", "Cross Selling-Leistungen", "Added Values", "Transaktionsunterstützung" und "Beziehungsqualität". Diese werden durch insgesamt 60 Qualitätskriterien gemessen. Wie die Befragung ebenfalls belegt, unterscheiden sich die Nutzer hinsichtlich der Bedeutung, die sie den einzelnen Dimensionen beimessen. In Abhängigkeit von der Interneterfahrung, des Bildungsstandes, der Portalnutzungsintensität, des Einkommens und des Alters erfolgt eine Ausdifferenzierung des Nutzungsverhaltens von Bankportal-Kunden. Im Ergebnis werden fünf große Nutzersegmente mit jeweils spezifischen Qualitätsanforderungen an das Portal identifiziert

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation in dynamic general equilibrium

We provide a systematic analysis of fiscal consolidation in a medium-scale dynamic general equilibrium model. Our results show that the choice of the consolidation instrument is very important, not only with respect to the short- and long-run output effects of the different consolidation strategies, but also regarding the welfare effects and the distributional consequences. Moreover, we show that these aspects become even more important if fiscal consolidation has to be conducted at a binding zero lower bound on nominal interest rates because in this case the negative short-run output costs increase. Our comprehensive analysis of the transmission channels of various fiscal consolidation measures shows that in particular the presence of credit-constrained households who cannot smooth consumption has a large impact on the overall output and welfare effects of fiscal consolidation. Further, it turns out to be important whether a fiscal instrument directly affects private production factors negatively as it is the case for consolidation via government investment and taxes on labor and capital. In these cases the short-run output contraction is large and persistent because either the private or the public capital stock decreases. By contrast, for a consolidation via government consumption, transfers or the consumption tax rate, output recovers much faster

The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: A quantile regression approach

We examine both the degree and the structural stability of inflation persistence at different quantiles of the conditional inflation distribution. Previous research focused exclusively on persistence at the conditional mean of the inflation rate. Economic theory, however, provides various reasons -for example downward wage rigidities or menu costs- to expect higher inflation persistence at the upper than at the lower tail of the conditional inflation distribution. Based on post-war US data we indeed find slower mean reversion in response to positive than to negative shocks. We find robust evidence for a structural break in persistence at all quantiles of the inflation process in the early 1980s. Inflation persistence has decreased and become more homogeneous across quantiles. Persistence at the conditional mean became more informative about the degree of persistence across the entire conditional inflation distribution. While prior to the 1980s inflation was not mean reverting in response to large positive shocks, our evidence strongly suggests that since the end of the Volcker disinflation the unit root can be rejected at every quantile including the upper tail of the conditional inflation distribution