Risk factors of mortality among male patients with cardiovascular disease in Malaysia using Bayesian analysis.

Background: Identifying risk factors associated with mortality is important in providing better prognosis to patients. Consistent with that, Bayesian approach offers a great advantage where it rests on the assumption that all model parameters are random quantities and hence can incorporate prior knowledge. Therefore, we aimed to develop a reliable model to identify risk factors associated with mortality among ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) male patients using Bayesian approach. Methods: A total of 7180 STEMI male patients from the National Cardiovascular Disease Database-Acute Coronary Syndrome (NCVD-ACS) registry for the years 2006-2013 were enrolled. In the development of univariate and multivariate logistic regression model for the STEMI patients, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach was applied. The performance of the model was assessed through convergence diagnostics, overall model fit, model calibration and discrimination. Results: A set of six risk factors for cardiovascular death among STEMI male patients were identified from the Bayesian multivariate logistic model namely age, diabetes mellitus, family history of CVD, Killip class, chronic lung disease and renal disease respectively. Overall model fit, model calibration and discrimination were considered good for the proposed model. Conclusion: Bayesian risk prediction model for CVD male patients identified six risk factors associated with mortality. Among the highest risks were Killip class (OR=18.0), renal disease (2.46) and age group (OR=2.43) respectively

Rivaroxaban with or without aspirin in stable cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND: We evaluated whether rivaroxaban alone or in combination with aspirin would be more effective than aspirin alone for secondary cardiovascular prevention. METHODS: In this double-blind trial, we randomly assigned 27,395 participants with stable atherosclerotic vascular disease to receive rivaroxaban (2.5 mg twice daily) plus aspirin (100 mg once daily), rivaroxaban (5 mg twice daily), or aspirin (100 mg once daily). The primary outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death, stroke, or myocardial infarction. The study was stopped for superiority of the rivaroxaban-plus-aspirin group after a mean follow-up of 23 months. RESULTS: The primary outcome occurred in fewer patients in the rivaroxaban-plus-aspirin group than in the aspirin-alone group (379 patients [4.1%] vs. 496 patients [5.4%]; hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66 to 0.86; P<0.001; z=−4.126), but major bleeding events occurred in more patients in the rivaroxaban-plus-aspirin group (288 patients [3.1%] vs. 170 patients [1.9%]; hazard ratio, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.40 to 2.05; P<0.001). There was no significant difference in intracranial or fatal bleeding between these two groups. There were 313 deaths (3.4%) in the rivaroxaban-plus-aspirin group as compared with 378 (4.1%) in the aspirin-alone group (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.96; P=0.01; threshold P value for significance, 0.0025). The primary outcome did not occur in significantly fewer patients in the rivaroxaban-alone group than in the aspirin-alone group, but major bleeding events occurred in more patients in the rivaroxaban-alone group. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with stable atherosclerotic vascular disease, those assigned to rivaroxaban (2.5 mg twice daily) plus aspirin had better cardiovascular outcomes and more major bleeding events than those assigned to aspirin alone. Rivaroxaban (5 mg twice daily) alone did not result in better cardiovascular outcomes than aspirin alone and resulted in more major bleeding events