Modelling Consequences of Maritime Critical Infrastructure Accidents

The probabilistic general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences including the superposition of three models of the process of initiating events, the process of environment threats and the process of environment degradation is adopted to the maritime transport critical infrastructure. The general model is applied to this critical infrastructure accident with chemical release consequences identification and prediction. The model also includes the cost analysis of losses associated with these chemical releases. Further, under the assumption of the stress of weather influence on the ship operation condition, critical infrastructure accident losses are examined and the results are compared with the previous ones. Finally, the method of optimization are practically tested to the minimizing these losses and the procedures and the new strategy assuring lower environment losses of the considered critical infrastructure accidents are proposed