Wagner's law in Italy: empirical evidence from 1960 to 2008

“Wagner’s Law” is the first model of public expenditure in the history of public finance. The aim of this article is to assess its empirical evidence in Italy for the period 1960-2008. After a brief introduction, an essential survey of the economic literature on this issue is offered, before evaluating the specifications of “Wagner’s Law” due either to Ram or Koop & Poirier. Wagner’s original specification is also evaluated. A few notes on the expenditure policy in Italy conclude the paper.Public expenditure; Wagner's Law; structural reforms; public finance

The economic policy of Ronald Reagan

“Reaganomics” is a popular term used to refer to the economic policies of Ronald W. Reagan, the 40th U.S. President (1981–1989), which called for widespread tax cuts, decreased social spending, increased military spending, and the deregulation of domestic markets. In this paper, we analyze American economic policy during the Eigh-ties. After a brief introduction, where a general economic context of that country is shown, we discuss and revise the economic literature about these issues. Afterwards, we present an augmented IS-LM model for Reagan years, estimated bay VAR techniques.Reaganomics; Supply-Side Economics; Laffer curve; tax cuts; twin deficits; IS-LM model; VAR.

Wagner's law and augmented Wagner's law in EU-27. A time-series analysis on stationarity, cointegration and causality

The relationship between public expenditure and aggregate income has long been debated in economic literature. According to Wagner, expenditure is an endogenous factor or an outcome. On the other hand, Keynes considered public expenditure as an exogenous factor to be used as a policy instrument to in-fluence growth. “Augmented” version of Wagner’s Law, where public deficit appears as further explanatory variable, is also investigated. The aim of this paper is to assess empirical evidence of these hypotheses in EU-27, for the period 1970-2009. After a brief introduction, a survey of the economic literature on this issue is offered, before evaluating some specifications of “Wagner’s Law” due to several researchers. Few notes on the empirical evidence’ comparisons conclude the paper.Wagner’s law; public expenditure; EU-27; correlation; unit root tests; cointegration analysis; causality

Energy consumption and aggregate income in Italy: cointegration and causality analysis

The aim of this article is to assess the empirical evidence of the nexus between aggregate income and energy consumption for Italy during the period 1970-2009, using a time-series approach. After a brief introduction, a survey of the economic literature on this issue is shown, before discussing the data and intro-ducing some econometric techniques. Stationarity tests reveal that both series are non-stationary, or I(1). Moreover, we found a cointegration relationship between the two variables. The short-run dynamics of the variables show that the flow of causality runs from energy use to GDP, and there is a long-run bi-directional causal relationship (or feedback effect) between the two series. Consequently, we conclude that energy is a limiting factor to GDP growth in Italy.Energy policies; energy consumption; GDP; stationarity; cointegration; causality; Italy

Wagner's law and Italian disaggregated public spending: some empirical evidences

Wagner’s Law is the first model of public spending in the history of public finance. The aim of this article is to assess its empirical evidence in Italy for the period 1960-2008 at a disaggregated level, using a time-series approach. After a brief introduction, a survey of the economic literature on this issue is shown, before estimating the specifications of Wagner’s Law for some specific items of public spending (for interests, for final consumption, for labour dependent income, for grants on production, and for public investments). We found a cointegration relationship for three out of five items. Moreover, Granger causality tests results show evidence in favour of Wagner’s law only for spending for passive interests in the long-run, and for spending for dependent labour income in the short-run. Some notes on the policy implications of our empirical results conclude the paper.public spending; economic growth; Wagner’s Law; time-series; unit root; cointegration; causality; fiscal policy

The Economic Policy of Ronald Reagan. Between Supply-Side and Keynesianism

“Reaganomics” is a popular term used to refer to the economic policies of Ronald W. Reagan, the 40th U.S. President (1981–1989), which called for widespread tax cuts, decreased social spending, increased military spending, and the deregulation of domestic markets. In this paper, we analyze American economic policy during the Eigh-ties. After a brief introduction, where a general economic context of that country is shown, we discuss and revise the economic literature about these issues. Afterwards, we present an augmented IS-LM model for Reagan years, estimated bay VAR techniques.Reaganomics; Supply-Side Economics; Laffer curve; tax cuts; twin deficits; IS-LM model; VAR.

WAGNER'S LAW AND AUGMENTED WAGNER'S LAW IN EU-27. A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS ON STATIONARITY, COINTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY

The relationship between public expenditure and aggregate income has long been debated in economic literature. According to Wagner, expenditure is an endogenous factor or an outcome. On the other hand, Keynes considered public expenditure as an exogenous factor to be used as a policy instrument to influence growth. "Augmented" version of Wagner's Law, where public deficit appears as further explanatory variable, is also investigated. The aim of this paper is to assess empirical evidence of these hypotheses in EU-27, for the period 1970- 2009. After a brief introduction, a survey of the economic literature on this issue is offered, before evaluating some specifications of "Wagner's Law" due to several researchers. Few notes on the empirical evidence' comparisons conclude the paper.Wagner's Law; public expenditure; EU-27; correlation; unit root tests; cointegration analysis; causality

OPTIMAL SIZE OF GOVERNMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EU-27

Using time-series techniques and panels data, the paper analyses for the EU countries in the period 1970-2009 the existence and shape of the "BARS curve" (Barro, Armey, Rahn, and Scully), connecting the size of Government (measured by the share of public expenditure on GDP) to the rate of economic growth. Individual countries research has been conducted for 12 countries for whom enough time series were available, while panel analysis has been performed both for EU-27 and for subgroups, distinguished by their different socio-economic and monetary structures, and per capita GDP. BARS curves were generally found, and the shares of actual public expenditures generally exceed substantially those related to the maximization of GDP growth. However, great differences do emerge. For the 12 countries examined by timeseries techniques, the difference between the actual level and the peak of the BARS curve ranges from 5.7 points for Germany and 18.1 points for Belgium. Panel data analysis for EU-27 shows a peak of the BARS curve at 37%, while the actual level is about 47%. While, panel data disaggregation shows a similar situation for the Western Continental Countries, with a smaller gap for Anglo-Saxon countries. For low per capita GDP countries the peak is higher than for the mature economies. So, further research may prove useful to show light on the disparities emerging in the empirical analysis of individual countries and of the panel sub-groups. However, the present research provides enough evidence that high GDP countries of EU have overcome the level of government size compatible with GDP growth rate maximization.Government size; economic growth; BARS curve; public expenditure; EU-27

Optimal size of government and economic growth in EU-27

Using time-series techniques and panels data, the paper analyses for the EU countries in the period 1970-2009 the existence and shape of the “BARS curve” (Barro, Armey, Rahn, and Scully), connecting the size of Government (measured by the share of public expenditure on GDP) to the rate of economic growth. Individual countries research has been conducted for 12 countries for whom enough time series were available, while panel analysis has been performed both for EU-27 and for subgroups, distinguished by their different socio-economic and monetary structures, and per capita GDP. BARS curves were generally found, and the shares of actual public expenditures generally exceed substantially those related to the maximization of GDP growth. However, great differences do emerge. For the 12 countries examined by time-series techniques, the difference between the actual level and the peak of the BARS curve ranges from 5.7 points for Germany and 18.1 points for Belgium. Panel data analysis for EU-27 shows a peak of the BARS curve at 37%, while the actual level is about 47%. While, panel data disaggregation shows a similar situation for the Western Continental Countries, with a smaller gap for Anglo-Saxon countries. For low per capita GDP countries the peak is higher than for the mature economies. So, further research may prove useful to show light on the disparities emerging in the empirical analysis of individual countries and of the panel sub-groups. However, the present research provides enough evidence that high GDP countries of EU have overcome the level of government size compatible with GDP growth rate maximization.Government size; economic growth; BARS curve; public expenditure; EU-27.

A panel VAR approach of the relationship among economic growth, CO2 emissions, and energy use in the ASEAN-6 countries

The paper analyses the relationship among economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, and energy use for six ASEAN countries over the 1971-2007 years. Using a panel VAR technique, a 3-variable VAR is estimated. Empirical findings show that the response of economic growth to energy use is positive and statistically significant. The forecast errors in real per capita GDP are mainly due to uncertainty in GDP itself and energy use emissions. The error variance in the carbon dioxide emissions are sensible to disturbances both in the GDP and in CO2 equations. While the errors in predicting the energy use are sensitive to disturbances in its own equation: after ten steps. Thus, for the estimated sample, these results reinforced the VAR and IRFs analyses, suggesting that for this panel the “growth hypothesis” holds