Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study

Background: Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. Methods and Findings: We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005–2009 for 20 countries covering ,35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%–85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000–249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average prepandemic season, with only 19% in persons ,65 y. Limitations include lack of representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010–2012). Conclusions: We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ,10-fold higher than the World Health Organization’s laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons ,65 y of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost. The burden varied greatly among countries, corroborating early reports of far greater pandemic severity in the Americas than in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. A collaborative network to collect and analyze mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics

Income development of General Practitioners in eight European countries from 1975 to 2005

Background: This study aims to gain insight into the international development of GP incomes over time through a comparative approach. The study is an extension of an earlier work (1975-1990, conducted in five yearly intervals). The research questions to be addressed in this paper are: 1) How can the remuneration system of GPs in a country be characterized? 2) How has the annual GP income developed over time in selected European countries? 3) What are the differences in GP incomes when differences in workload are taken into account? And 4) to what extent do remuneration systems, supply of GPs and gate-keeping contribute to the income position of GPs? Methods: Data were collected for Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Written sources, websites and country experts were consulted. The data for the years 1995 and 2000 were collected in 2004-2005. The data for 2005 were collected in 2006-2007. Results: During the period 1975-1990, the income of GPs, corrected for inflation, declined in all the countries under review. During the period 1995-2005, the situation changed significantly: The income of UK GPs rose to the very top position. Besides this, the gap between the top end (UK) and bottom end (Belgium) widened considerably. Practice costs form about 50% of total revenues, regardless of the absolute level of revenues. Analysis based on income per patient leads to a different ranking of countries compared to the ranking based on annual income. In countries with a relatively large supply of GPs, income per hour is lower. The type of remuneration appeared to have no effect on the financial position of the GPs in the countries in this study. In countries with a gate-keeping system the average GP income was systematically higher compared to countries with a direct-access system. Conclusion: There are substantial differences in the income of GPs among the countries included in this study. The discrepancy between countries has increased over time. The income of British GPs showed a marked increase from 2000 to 2005, due to the introduction of a new contract between the NHS and GPs

Variations in influenza vaccination coverage among the high-risk population in Sweden in 2003/4 and 2004/5: a population survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Sweden, the vaccination campaign is the individual responsibility of the counties, which results in different arrangements. The aim of this study was to find out whether influenza vaccination coverage rates (VCRs) had increased between 2003/4 and 2004/5 among population at high risk and to find out the influence of personal preferences, demographic characteristics and health care system characteristics on VCRs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An average sample of 2500 persons was interviewed each season (2003/4 and 2004/5). The respondents were asked whether they had had an influenza vaccination, whether they suffered from chronic conditions and the reasons of non-vaccination. For every county the relevant health care system characteristics were collected via a questionnaire sent to the medical officers of communicable diseases.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>No difference in VCR was found between the two seasons. Personal invitations strongly increased the chance of having had a vaccination. For the elderly, the number of different health care professionals in a region involved in administering vaccines decreased this chance.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Sweden remained below the WHO-recommendations for population at high risk due to disease. To meet the 2010 WHO-recommendation further action may be necessary to increase vaccine uptake. Increasing the number of personal invitations and restricting the number of different administrators responsible for vaccination may be effective in increasing VCRs among the elderly.</p

Bismarck or Beveridge: a beauty contest between dinosaurs

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Health systems delivery systems can be divided into two broad categories: National Health Services (NHS) on the one hand and Social Security (based) Health care systems (SSH) on the other hand. Existing literature is inconclusive about which system performs best. In this paper we would like to improve the evidence-base for discussion about pros and cons of NHS-systems versus SSH-system for health outcomes, expenditure and population satisfaction.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this study we used time series data for 17 European countries, that were characterized as either NHS or SSH country. We used the following performance indicators: For health outcome: overall mortality rate, infant mortality rate and life expectancy at birth. For health care costs: health care expenditure per capita in pppUS$ and health expenditure as percentage of GDP. Time series dated from 1970 until 2003 or 2004, depending on availability. Sources were OECD health data base 2006 and WHO health for all database 2006. For satisfaction we used the Eurobarometer studies from 1996, 1998 and 1999.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>SSH systems perform slightly better on overall mortality rates and life expectancy (after 1980). For infant mortality the rates converged between the two types of systems and since 1980 no differences ceased to exist.</p> <p>SSH systems are more expensive and NHS systems have a better cost containment. Inhabitants of countries with SSH-systems are on average substantially more satisfied than those in NHS countries.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We concluded that the question 'which type of system performs best' can be answered empirically as far as health outcomes, health care expenditures and patient satisfaction are concerned. Whether this selection of indicators covers all or even most relevant aspects of health system comparison remains to be seen. Perhaps further and more conclusive research into health system related differences in, for instance, equity should be completed before the leading question of this paper can be answered. We do think, however, that this study can form a base for a policy debate on the pros and cons of the existing health care systems in Europe.</p

Introducing DRG-based financing in Hungary : a study into the relationship between supply of hospital beds and use of these beds under changing institutional circumstances

Most hospital reforms carried out in Europe over the past few decades concern the supply of hospital beds and hospital financing systems. In Hungary, financing was not tied to hospital input or output until a Diagnosis-Related-Group system was introduced. This change provided an opportunity to study the effect of the new system, taking the supply of hospital beds into account. We studied the effect of the financing system and bed supply on four output parameters, average length of stay; admission rate; occupancy; and case-mix. The incentives of the financing system influenced the length of stay (shorter) and the admission rate (more admissions). Although the case-mix did increase, occupancy was not affected. The supply of more beds resulted in higher admission rates and a slightly lower efficiency (a lower occupancy rate). No interaction effects of (variations in) the bed supply and the financing system were found.

Income development of General Practitioners in eight European countries from 1975 to 2005

Abstract Background This study aims to gain insight into the international development of GP incomes over time through a comparative approach. The study is an extension of an earlier work (1975–1990, conducted in five yearly intervals). The research questions to be addressed in this paper are: 1) How can the remuneration system of GPs in a country be characterized? 2) How has the annual GP income developed over time in selected European countries? 3) What are the differences in GP incomes when differences in workload are taken into account? And 4) to what extent do remuneration systems, supply of GPs and gate-keeping contribute to the income position of GPs? Methods Data were collected for Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Written sources, websites and country experts were consulted. The data for the years 1995 and 2000 were collected in 2004–2005. The data for 2005 were collected in 2006–2007. Results During the period 1975–1990, the income of GPs, corrected for inflation, declined in all the countries under review. During the period 1995–2005, the situation changed significantly: The income of UK GPs rose to the very top position. Besides this, the gap between the top end (UK) and bottom end (Belgium) widened considerably. Practice costs form about 50% of total revenues, regardless of the absolute level of revenues. Analysis based on income per patient leads to a different ranking of countries compared to the ranking based on annual income. In countries with a relatively large supply of GPs, income per hour is lower. The type of remuneration appeared to have no effect on the financial position of the GPs in the countries in this study. In countries with a gate-keeping system the average GP income was systematically higher compared to countries with a direct-access system. Conclusion There are substantial differences in the income of GPs among the countries included in this study. The discrepancy between countries has increased over time. The income of British GPs showed a marked increase from 2000 to 2005, due to the introduction of a new contract between the NHS and GPs.</p