Regional integration and industrial growth among developing countries - the case of three ASEAN members

Has the revival of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the early 1990s affected the industrial growth of Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines? The author uses two mechanisms to capture this potential impact: scale effects, and intermediate imports variety. She performs the analysis on twenty two industries (at the three-digit level of the International Standard Industrial Classification) over the period 1971-95. The results show significant heterogeneity in industry-level returns to scale. Moreover, the three ASEAN members have very small, mostly negative cross-industry scale effects. As a result, they may not achieve large, or across-the-board gains from their regional arrangement through scale effects. The author finds unexpected results with respect to the role of intermediate imports variety in industrial growth. She finds no support for the hypothesis that non-regional (rest of the world) suppliers, and goods variety have a positive effect on ASEAN industries through the channel of imported intermediate inputs. The regional variety measure, however, seems to have a positive effect on the output growth of a handful of industries. This result seems due to the fact that these countries have long had a strong intra-regional, and intra-industry trade, whose history predates, and outweighs the ASEAN revival.Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Economic Theory&Research,Water and Industry,Public Health Promotion,Environmental Economics&Policies,Water and Industry,Economic Theory&Research,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT

South-South regional integration and industrial growth : the case of the Andean Pact

Has the revival of the Andean Pact affected the industrial growth of Bolivia, Colombia, and Ecuador? Has this regional agreement had greater effects tha unilateral liberalization? The author explores two potential channels for industrial growth: scale effects and variety of imported intermediate inputs. She analyzes data from 2 countries (classified at the three-digit level of ISIC) across three countries. The results show that: 10 The variety of intermediate inputs originating from nonregional partners has a significant positive impact on growth in a handful of industries. 2) The effect of regional variety is at best mixed. This lends preliminary support to the argument that unilateral liberalization will have a positive impact on output growth through the channel of imported intermediate inputs. There is significant homogeneity in industry-level returns to scale. Moreover, in the three Andean countries studied, cross-country scale effects were small and negative. Therefore, the three countries should not expect large or across-the-board gains through scale effects from their regional arrangement.Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Public Health Promotion,Water and Industry,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Water and Industry

The impact of export tax incentives on export performance : evidence from the automotive sector in South Africa

The original goal of the Motor Industry Development Program was to help the automotive industry in South Africa adjust to trade liberalization and become internationally competitive. In simple terms, it consists of an import/export complementation arrangement, whereby the local value-added of components or built-up vehicles exported earns credits that can be used to rebate import duties on components and vehicles. This study provides a first attempt at a quantitative analysis of the Motor Industry Development Program using the difference-in-difference methodology, in order to assess to what extent the program was effective in improving South Africa's automotive export performance during 1996-2006. The authors take a two-tier approach. First, they perform a comparative study using different manufacturing sectors within South Africa; second, they apply this methodology to analyze South Africa and a number of comparator countries that are automotive producers and exporters. The analysis finds that the impact of the program on automotive exports in South Africa is positive and significant. In particular, (i) the largest response to the program in terms of improved manufacturing exports occurs with a delay after the adoption of the law, suggesting that exports need time to fully react to the incentives; and (ii) in turn, the effectiveness of the tax incentives fades in time, reaffirming the common belief that tax incentives may affect some business decisions particularly in the short run, but they are not a primary consideration for investors in the long run.Economic Theory&Research,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Free Trade,Debt Markets,Tax Law