Rainfall and sentinel chicken seroconversions predict human cases of Murray Valley encephalitis in the north of Western Australia

Background Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) is a flavivirus that occurs in Australia and New Guinea. While clinical cases are uncommon, MVEV can cause severe encephalitis with high mortality. Sentinel chicken surveillance is used at many sites around Australia to provide an early warning system for risk of human infection in areas that have low population density and geographical remoteness. MVEV in Western Australia occurs in areas of low population density and geographical remoteness, resulting in logistical challenges with surveillance systems and few human cases. While epidemiological data has suggested an association between rainfall and MVEV activity in outbreak years, it has not been quantified, and the association between rainfall and sporadic cases is less clear. In this study we analysed 22 years of sentinel chicken and human case data from Western Australia in order to evaluate the effectiveness of sentinel chicken surveillance for MVEV and assess the association between rainfall and MVEV activity. Methods Sentinel chicken seroconversion, human case and rainfall data from the Kimberley and Pilbara regions of Western Australia from 1990 to 2011 were analysed using negative binomial regression. Sentinel chicken seroconversion and human cases were used as dependent variables in the model. The model was then tested against sentinel chicken and rainfall data from 2012 and 2013.Results Sentinel chicken seroconversion preceded all human cases except two in March 1993. Rainfall in the prior three months was significantly associated with both sentinel chicken seroconversion and human cases across the regions of interest. Sentinel chicken seroconversion was also predictive of human cases in the models. The model predicted sentinel chicken seroconversion in the Kimberley but not in the Pilbara, where seroconversions early in 2012 were not predicted. The latter may be due to localised MVEV activity in isolated foci at dams, which do not reflect broader virus activity in the region. Conclusions We showed that rainfall and sentinel chickens provide a useful early warning of MVEV risk to humans across endemic and epidemic areas, and that a combination of the two indicators improves the ability to assess MVEV risk and inform risk management measures

Journeying from “I” to “we”: assembling hybrid caring collectives of geography doctoral scholars

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in "Journal of Geography in Higher Education" on 15 June 2017, available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03098265.2017.133529

Spontaneous retropharyngeal haematoma: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Spontaneous retropharyngeal haematoma is an unusual condition. It has multiple aetiological factors and can present to a number of specialists including the otolaryngologist.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We describe a case of spontaneous retropharyngeal haematoma which demonstrates the dramatic presentation and emphasises the need for a conservative approach.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>It is important to be aware of this unusual condition with its distinct presentation. Surgical intervention should be resisted unless a treatable aetiological factor is found or airway compromise occurs. Most cases will resolve with conservative management.</p

Design, conduct, analysis and reporting of a multi-national placebo-controlled trial of activated protein C for persistent septic shock

The role of drotrecogin alfa (activated) (DAA) in severe sepsis remains controversial and clinicians are unsure whether or not to treat their patients with DAA. In response to a request from the European Medicines Agency, Eli Lilly will sponsor a new placebo-controlled trial and history suggests the results will be subject to great scrutiny. An academic steering committee will oversee the conduct of the study and will write the study manuscripts. The steering committee intends that the study will be conducted with the maximum possible transparency; this includes publication of the study protocol and a memorandum of understanding which delineates the role of the sponsor. The trial has the potential to provide clinicians with valuable data but patients will only benefit if clinicians have confidence in the conduct, analysis and reporting of the trial. This special article describes the process by which the trial was developed, major decisions regarding trial design, and plans for independent analysis, interpretation and reporting of the data

Are attitudes towards mental health help-seeking associated with service use? Results from the European Study of Epidemiology of Mental Disorders

To investigate the prevailing attitudes towards mental health help-seeking in Europe, their correlates, and whether these attitudes are associated with actual service use for mental health problems. Data were derived from the European Study of Epidemiology of Mental Disorders, a survey representative of the adult population of six countries: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain (n = 8,796). The World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview was used to assess attitudes and DSM-IV diagnoses. The attitudes referred to beliefs that the respondents would seek professional help when faced with a serious emotional problem, would feel comfortable talking about personal problems with a professional, would not be embarrassed if friends knew about the professional help, and respondents' perceived effectiveness of mental health care. Almost a third of the respondents held the view that professional care was worse than or equal to no help when faced with serious emotional problems. Female gender, being younger than 65 years of age, high income, living in Spain or Italy, presence of mood disorder and previous service use were associated with at least two of the four assessed attitudes towards mental health help-seeking. All four attitudes were significantly associated with mental health care use, also after adjustment for previous service use. The low perceived effectiveness of professional care calls for serious action aiming to improve the visibility and credibility of the mental health care sector

The Changing Epidemiology of Murray Valley Encephalitis in Australia: The 2011 Outbreak and a Review of the Literature

Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) is the most serious of the endemic arboviruses in Australia. It was responsible for six known large outbreaks of encephalitis in south-eastern Australia in the 1900s, with the last comprising 58 cases in 1974. Since then MVEV clinical cases have been largely confined to the western and central parts of northern Australia. In 2011, high-level MVEV activity occurred in south-eastern Australia for the first time since 1974, accompanied by unusually heavy seasonal MVEV activity in northern Australia. This resulted in 17 confirmed cases of MVEV disease across Australia. Record wet season rainfall was recorded in many areas of Australia in the summer and autumn of 2011. This was associated with significant flooding and increased numbers of the mosquito vector and subsequent MVEV activity. This paper documents the outbreak and adds to our knowledge about disease outcomes, epidemiology of disease and the link between the MVEV activity and environmental factors. Clinical and demographic information from the 17 reported cases was obtained. Cases or family members were interviewed about their activities and location during the incubation period. In contrast to outbreaks prior to 2000, the majority of cases were non-Aboriginal adults, and almost half (40%) of the cases acquired MVEV outside their area of residence. All but two cases occurred in areas of known MVEV activity.This outbreak continues to reflect a change in the demographic pattern of human cases of encephalitic MVEV over the last 20 years. In northern Australia, this is associated with the increasing numbers of non-Aboriginal workers and tourists living and travelling in endemic and epidemic areas, and also identifies an association with activities that lead to high mosquito exposure. This outbreak demonstrates that there is an ongoing risk of MVEV encephalitis to the heavily populated areas of south-eastern Australia