Forecast combination for discrete choice models: predicting FOMC monetary policy decisions

This paper provides a methodology for combining forecasts based on several discrete choice models. This is achieved primarily by combining one-step-ahead probability forecast associated with each model. The paper applies well-established scoring rules for qualitative response models in the context of forecast combination. Log-scores and quadratic-scores are both used to evaluate the forecasting accuracy of each model and to combine the probability forecasts. In addition to producing point forecasts, the effect of sampling variation is also assessed. This methodology is applied to forecast the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions in changing the federal funds target rate. Several of the economic fundamentals influencing the FOMC decisions are nonstationary over time and are modelled in a similar fashion to Hu and Phillips (2004a, JoE). The empirical results show that combining forecasted probabilities using scores mostly outperforms both equal weight combination and forecasts based on multivariate models

Association between chiropractic care and use of prescription opioids among older medicare beneficiaries with spinal pain: a retrospective observational study

Background: The burden of spinal pain can be aggravated by the hazards of opioid analgesics, which are still widely prescribed for spinal pain despite evidence-based clinical guidelines that identify non-pharmacological therapies as the preferred first-line approach. Previous studies have found that chiropractic care is associated with decreased use of opioids, but have not focused on older Medicare beneficiaries, a vulnerable population with high rates of co-morbidity and polypharmacy. The purpose of this investigation was to evaluate the association between chiropractic utilization and use of prescription opioids among older adults with spinal pain. Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational study in which we examined a nationally representative multi-year sample of Medicare claims data, 2012–2016. The study sample included 55,949 Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with spinal pain, of whom 9,356 were recipients of chiropractic care and 46,593 were non-recipients. We measured the adjusted risk of filling a prescription for an opioid analgesic for up to 365 days following diagnosis of spinal pain. Using Cox proportional hazards modeling and inverse weighted propensity scoring to account for selection bias, we compared recipients of both primary care and chiropractic to recipients of primary care alone regarding the risk of filling a prescription. Results: The adjusted risk of filling an opioid prescription within 365 days of initial visit was 56% lower among recipients of chiropractic care as compared to non-recipients (hazard ratio 0.44; 95% confidence interval 0.40–0.49). Conclusions: Among older Medicare beneficiaries with spinal pain, use of chiropractic care is associated with significantly lower risk of filling an opioid prescription

CW and passively Q-switched double-clad planar waveguide lasers

Greater than 12 W of average output power have been generated from a diode pumped Yb:YAG cladding-pumped planar waveguide laser. The developed laser radiation is linearly polarized and diffraction limited in the guiding dimension. A slope efficiency of 0.5 W/W with a peak optical-optical conversion efficiency of 0.31 W/W is achieved. In a related structure, greater than 8 W of Q-switched average output power has been generated from a Nd:YAG cladding-pumped planar waveguide incorporating Cr:YAG passive Q-switch monolithically into the waveguide structure. Pulse widths of 3 nsec and PRFs as high as 80 kHz have been demonstrated. A slope efficiency of 0.28 W/W with a peak optical-optical conversion efficiency of 0.21 W/W is achieved

Trees and urban air quality: a briefing note

Key messages 1. Trees alone are not the solution to air pollution. They can create a localised positive benefit for air quality by changing the dispersion of pollution, but the amount of pollution deposited onto trees is not significant on an urban scale. 2. Air pollution can damage trees. 3. Emissions of VOCs from trees can, under the correct conditions, create ozone pollution. This is only relevant when creating new woodlands

Results of the First Coincident Observations by Two Laser-Interferometric Gravitational Wave Detectors

We report an upper bound on the strain amplitude of gravitational wave bursts in a waveband from around 800Hz to 1.25kHz. In an effective coincident observing period of 62 hours, the prototype laser interferometric gravitational wave detectors of the University of Glasgow and Max Planck Institute for Quantum Optics, have set a limit of 4.9E-16, averaging over wave polarizations and incident directions. This is roughly a factor of 2 worse than the theoretical best limit that the detectors could have set, the excess being due to unmodelled non-Gaussian noise. The experiment has demonstrated the viability of the kind of observations planned for the large-scale interferometers that should be on-line in a few years time.Comment: 11 pages, 2 postscript figure

Understanding Anthropological Understanding: for a merological anthropology

In this paper I argue for a merological anthropology in which ideas of ‘partiality’ and ‘practical adequacy’ provide a way out of the impasse of relativism which is implied by post-modernism and the related abandonment of a concern with ‘truth’. Ideas such as ‘aptness’ and ‘faithfulness’ enable us to re-establish empirical foundations without having to espouse a simple realism which has been rightly criticised. Ideas taken from ethnomethodology, particularly the way we bootstrap from ‘practical adequacy’ to ‘warrants for confidence’ point to a merological anthropology in which we recognize that we do not and cannot know everything, but that we can have reasons for being confident in the little we know

The role of plasma membrane STIM1 and Ca(2+)entry in platelet aggregation. STIM1 binds to novel proteins in human platelets.

Ca(2+) elevation is essential to platelet activation. STIM1 senses Ca(2+) in the endoplasmic reticulum and activates Orai channels allowing store-operated Ca(2+) entry (SOCE). STIM1 has also been reported to be present in the plasma membrane (PM) with its N-terminal region exposed to the outside medium but its role is not fully understood. We have examined the effects of the antibody GOK/STIM1, which recognises the N-terminal region of STIM1, on SOCE, agonist-stimulated Ca(2+) entry, surface exposure, in vitro thrombus formation and aggregation in human platelets. We also determined novel binding partners of STIM1 using proteomics. The dialysed GOK/STIM1 antibody failed to reduced thapsigargin- and agonist-mediated Ca(2+) entry in Fura2-labelled cells. Using flow cytometry we detect a portion of STIM1 to be surface-exposed. The dialysed GOK/STIM1 antibody reduced thrombus formation by whole blood on collagen-coated capillaries under flow and platelet aggregation induced by collagen. In immunoprecipitation experiments followed by proteomic analysis, STIM1 was found to extract a number of proteins including myosin, DOCK10, thrombospondin-1 and actin. These studies suggest that PM STIM1 may facilitate platelet activation by collagen through novel interactions at the plasma membrane while the essential Ca(2+)-sensing role of STIM1 is served by the protein in the ER

Mobilising Urban Policies: The Policy Transfer of US Business Improvement Districts to England and Wales

This paper examines the ways in which policies are transferred between places: how they are disembedded from, and re-embedded into, new political, economic and social contexts. To do this, the paper will draw upon a case study of the transfer of Business Improvement Districts (BIDs) from the US to England and Wales. Within this, the paper demonstrates how they were a response to fiscal problems facing city-centre management in England and Wales; how US BIDs were socially constructed as `successful' and `transferable'; and how the BID `model' was reshaped prior to and following its rolling-out in England and Wales. The paper concludes by stressing six wider conceptual points about the nature of urban policy transfer

Avanços recentes em nutrição de larvas de peixes

Os requisitos nutricionais de larvas de peixes são ainda mal compreendidos, o que leva a altas mortalidades e problemas de qualidade no seu cultivo. Este trabalho pretende fazer uma revisão de novas metodologias de investigação, tais como estudos com marcadores, genómica populacional, programação nutricional, génomica e proteómica funcionais, e fornecer ainda alguns exemplos das utilizações presentes e perspectivas futuras em estudos de nutrição de larvas de peixes